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Is the government winning the civil war in Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka -- the embattled south Asian country -- has just celebrated its 60th anniversary of independence. The occasion this year has a special significance, since the government appears to have accomplished significant gains in the war against the Tamil militants. The government in Colombo seems upbeat about its ultimate success in the drive against the militants.
President Mahinda Rajapakse went to the extent of saying that the government troops were "winning the war," and he expressed no doubt about the eventual outcome. Addressing the Independence Day celebrations, the president gave the impression that it might not take long to achieve the objective, although independent observers are not sure about the veracity of the claim.
However, there is little doubt that the government side had made some gains in the last few months, and that the rebels were on the defensive. The record of the more than two decades long civil war would suggest that the fortunes in the battlefield are often marked by ups and downs, with the pendulum swinging in both directions. Nevertheless, it is somewhat clear that the government is at the moment in the driving seat.
Sri Lanka is definitely embroiled in full-blown war, following a number of developments that clearly indicate the hardening of the stances of both -- the government and the Tamil militants.
The peace process has been in tatters for long, but mediators hope that it can still be revived if the warring sides respond to their calls for reversing the current trend of hostilities.
Contrary to this expectation, the belligerence is increasing with full intensity. The Sri Lanka monitoring mission (SLMM), put in place by peace-broker Norway to supervise the 2002 ceasefire agreement, has said that it is "alarmed" by the developing situation.
Others, in and outside the country, feel the same way, and are concerned about the shape of the things to come in the days ahead -- which, obviously, is more bloodshed and destruction. In fact, the comments by President Rajapakse make it abundantly clear that the civil war continues with full fury.
The peace talks have been stalemated for long, and took a beating following the exit from power of former prime minister Ranil Wickramsinghe, whose government had initiated the dialogue with the rebels but was dismissed by President Chandrika, evidently for being "soft" to the Tamil militants.
The elections that followed brought Chandrika's supporters to power under Prime Minister Mahindra Rajapakse, and the chances of a settlement of the more than two-decade-old civil war through discussions have since become more remote. President Mahinda Rajapakse, who succeeded Chandrika, followed the same hard line with the rebels, and no progress has been made towards a negotiated settlement of the civil war. Occasional moves for dialogue have collapsed, making no headway at all.
Earlier, several rounds of talks between the Colombo government and the Tamil Tigers during Ranil's time raised hopes for a negotiated settlement of the contentious civil war in Sri Lanka, which was virtually bleeding white because of the long drawn conflict centering minority Tamil's armed struggle for a separate homeland in the north of the country.
There was no decisive outcome of the civil war, as both sides blamed each other for the situation. However, overall conditions marked a qualitative change when the government of Prime Minister Ranil Wickramsinghe took an active pro-peace policy with the rebels, which facilitated a dialogue that went for several rounds in different venues abroad, making some progress in the vexed problem.
While it was the height of folly to expect an easy resolution of the Sri Lankan imbroglio, given the complexities involved in the issue, the dialogue gave hope since both sides made significant concessions. The government conceded to some demands of the Tigers, while the latter abandoned their main position -- an independent state for the Tamils -- and agreed to autonomy.
The road to peace through negotiations was undoubtedly bumpy, but what was remarkably encouraging was the marked willingness to find common ground for a permanent settlement of the problem. Notwithstanding differences on some key areas, both sides demonstrated eagerness in carrying forward the parleys. But the scenario has now changed; as the government is not keen on discussions and is even giving a cold shoulder to the peace process.
In the last few months, several incidents contributed heavily to the worsening of the situation, including the killing in air raids of S.P. Tamilselvan, who was the political adviser of the militants. Clearly, this came as a big setback for the rebels, who vowed to avenge this killing; and an attempt on a minister, George Devanand, certainty further queered the pitch of government-Tamil militant relations. Violence has increased, and the celebration of the Independence Day was also marked by killings and suicide bomb attacks.
The latest developments have frustrated the mediators, who have hopes of resumption of the dialogue despite yawning differences in the positions of the two sides. Norway, Japan, and several other nations, are keen to see that the belligerence is at least minimised. But that will be quite tough, and obviously makes the resumption of the peace moves extremely difficult.
Despite the claim by President Rajapakse that the government was moving very to close to winning the civil war, the scenario in the battlefield is not one of easy achievements by the government troops.
The determined Tamil militants, understandably, will spare no efforts to overcome the losses, which, however, is a Herculean task. In any case, even at the present stage of setbacks, a cakewalk is not possible for the government side. The militants will evidently fight to the last, and it will be the height of folly to assume that they are on the verge of total defeat.
Even in the present favourable situation, the government needs to demonstrate maturity to resolve the crisis. Sri Lanka needs prudent policies and, obviously, the onus largely lies with the government, while the militants are expected to demonstrate a rational attitude.
The claims of big gains by the government side may not be baseless, but this, in itself, is nothing to boast about in resolving a national problem. The Colombo government is not expected to bask in the glory of the destruction of an ethnic population of its own country. What is needed is statesmanlike sagacity on part of the president of the country to bring about a just end to the civil war.
Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.
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