West beats Burma drum without purpose or strategy
The international community is stepping up pressure on Burma's military regime to introduce economic and political change as soon as possible. At the same time the United Nations envoy to Burma, Ismail Gambari and the European Union are pressing the Asian nations to intervene and encourage the junta to listen to the international appeals for reform.
The European Union and the United States have recently renewed calls for immediate release of the opposition leader Aung San Suu Ky, who is under house arrest in Rangoon.
"I hope the lady (Aung San Suu Kyi) can be free as soon as possible," the EU special envoy on Burma/Myanmar, Piero Fassino told the Daily Star last week. "There can be no real talks between the junta and the opposition if a key player is not free to talk to her party and the public," Fassino added.
But the EU is also threatening to increase sanctions against the junta, if there is no tangible progress in the next three months. "If Mr. Gambari is not allowed back into the country, or fails to achieve anything concrete when he's there, the EU will have no alternative but to consider increasing sanctions against the junta," he said.
"The West has now turned to Asia to get them out of a hole on the Burma issue," a senior South East Asian diplomat told the Daily Star on condition of anonymity. "They expect us to pressure the Burmese government on their behalf, without giving us anything in return," he added.
"Force will not achieve anything with Burma's military leaders -- they will only recede further into their shell and ignore the international appeals," he added. "The west should certainly not increase sanctions at this stage, and in fact should consider easing them."
At present the West's main hope of engaging the junta seems to rest on the efforts of the UN secretary general's special advisor to Burma, the Nigerian diplomat, Ismail Gambari. He made two crucial visits to Burma last year, the last in November. The EU in particular sees its efforts on Burma as supporting the UN's plans.
"Our strategy is to promote dialogue (in Burma) that will realise national reconciliation, dialogue that will realise democratic transition," said Fassino. "This goal will be achieved by discussions with the countries of Asia and the promotion of the UN's initiatives, through the Secretary General's special representative for Burma, Ismail Gambari.
But despite frequent requests to return in the past ten weeks, Gambari has been continually refused a visa. The junta has told him that they are too busy and pre-occupied to see him until after the Buddhist New Year, Thingyan (the Burmese Songkran) in mid-April.
Many diplomats though in Rangoon fear that Gambari may have made his last trip to Burma, or if he is allowed in he will not be able to achieve anything. "If Mr. Gambari is permitted to visit Burma in the next months, it's almost certain he will not meet the top general, Than Shwe, making his mission meaningless," according to a western diplomat based in Rangoon who wished to remain anonymous.
The junta is clearly in no mood to cooperate with the UN at present. Apart from throwing the UN resident coordinator, Charles Petrie, out of the country two months ago, the regime is playing hardball with the organisation on the ground inside Burma.
Several important UN-sponsored field-visits, for diplomats (whose countries' fund projects), have been inextricably cancelled. A trip United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) to eastern Rakhine state, where Burmese Muslim refugees have been repatriated after earlier fleeing to Bangladesh to escape persecution, planned for last week, was cancelled at the last moment -- the first time since the annual trip started more than fifteen years ago.
A UNAIDS trip planned for later this month has also been postponed at short notice. Many UN officials who oversee program and projects in Burma, who are based in Bangkok have been denied visas. Members of the UN's main humanitarian organisation, OCHA (the Office for Co-ordination of Humanitarian Assistance) have been refused access to Burma for several months -- ever since the crackdown on the monk-led anti-inflation protest last year.
Gambari has just been in Delhi for talks with the India government on Burma. He is now back in New York, before heading to Beijing for further discussions with senior Chinese leaders next week. He had hoped to fly directly from Delhi to Beijing but the Chinese authorities postponed the trip until early February because of the Chinese New Year holiday.
But with the Gambari process almost dead, the UN will have to find another way of reviving its to engage the Burmese regime. "Clearly the junta, or particularly Than Shwe, has had enough of the UN, the only option left is for the Secretary General, Ban-ki Moon himself to visit Burma as soon as possible," a UN official close to Gambari and the Burma issue, told the Daily Star on condition of anonymity.
Failing that it is only the countries of Asia who can influence the Burmese regime. "The nations of Asia -- China, India, Thailand and the other countries of Asean -- can play and important and strategic role," the EU envoy told the Daily Star earlier this week.
"The international community must understand that we hate megaphone diplomacy and will it encourage us to do anything," the former military intelligence deputy, Major-General Kyaw Win told the Daily Star (me) several years ago when General Khin Nyunt was prime minister, before he was dismissed and put under house arrest.
The EU envoy, and for that matter the west as a whole, are engaged in megaphone diplomacy, which will only alienate the regime rather than encourage them on the path to political reform.
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