BJP hurtles from crisis to crisis
Many Indian newspapers and TV channels have become so fanatically partisan on the US-India nuclear deal that they have run a crusade for it and maligned its critics as brain-dead dinosaurs or agents of China/Pakistan.
The saddest example is a national daily, which is the principal outrider-cum-spokesperson-cum-adviser of the deal's supporters.
It has turned the deal into a litmus test for India's will to emerge as a superpower by allying itself with the US, for the United Progressive Alliance's ability to shake off the Left's influence, and for the imperative of developing nuclear power for energy security.
Last fortnight, The Indian Express carried an interview-based story in which Bharatiya Janata Party leader LK Advani said that the party wasn't categorically opposed to the deal or to a strategic partnership with the US. If India enacts a "domestic Hyde Act" to protect its "right" to test and stockpile nuclear weapons, he will have "no objection" to the agreement.
Mr. Advani presented himself as the BJP's most important policy-maker, who can single-handedly alter its position, elaborated on August 3. For good measure, he planted another story, falsely claiming that a top RSS leader "appreciated" his stand.
The Express exulted over Mr. Advani's statement, and ran an article by a Hindutva insider, who had "fixed" the interview, now currying favour with him. Both celebrated this "movement" towards a "bipartisan consensus" -- ignoring the multi-polar nature of Indian politics.
However, they hadn't reckoned with Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee's strong aversion to anyone questioning his inner-party supremacy. Mr. Vajpayee had presided over the August 3 meeting that issued the party's statement on the deal, which was drafted principally by former national security adviser and Vajpayee confidant Brajesh Mishra.
Mr. Advani was hauled over the coals and forced to retract his statement. The "Iron Man" executed not one, but two, U-turns --within four days flat. The Express fumed that the BJP's "anti-deal jehadis" had prevailed!
Mr. Advani is desperate to project himself as the prime ministerial candidate of the National Democratic Alliance in a mid-term election. He probably reckons he has played second fiddle to Mr. Vajpayee for too long. But he vastly overestimates his acceptability -- despite his pathetic 9 per cent popularity rating, compared to Mr. Vajpayee's 40 per cent-plus.
By available indications, Mr. Vajpayee isn't about to call it a day, his failing health notwithstanding. Even if he does, Mr. Advani will face competition from Mr. Murli Manohar Joshi.
After all, the RSS appreciates this zealot's role in pushing Hindutva's ideological agenda in education, which contrasts with Mr. Advani's lacklustre performance as home minister. The "Iron Man" isn't a favourite with the BJP's allies.
Besides, an election may not be imminent. The UPA-Left joint committee on the deal hasn't completed its deliberations. Even if these fail, the Left will have the option of protesting against the deal, but not toppling the government.
The power struggle in the BJP permeates all its four core-states: Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, which account for half its Lok Sabha tally. It's particularly virulent in Gujarat, India's most "saffonised" state, where the BJP has ruled for an uninterrupted 12 years.
Chief Minister Narendra Modi faces stiff internal opposition, spearheaded by former chief minister Keshubhai Patel. The inner-party divisions were exposed during the recent presidential elections, when five BJP MLAs defied the party whip.
Now, a "poster war" has broken out, in which Mr. Modi's supporters depict him as Lord Krishna, and his opponents as the hated Kauravas.
Mr. Modi has antagonised the powerful Patidar (Patel) caste. The prosperous Patidars dominate agriculture, small industry, and diamond polishing. Their vote is decisive in 60 of Gujarat's 182 assembly constituencies. They account for almost a third of BJP MLAs.
Mr. Modi will find it hard to shore up the BJP's sinking base. Between the 1999 and 2004 Lok Sabhas, the Congress improved its tally from 6 seats to 12 (of a total of 26), while the BJP's fell from 20 to 14.
In assembly-wise count, the two parties were neck-and-neck. The BJP's earlier 10 percentage-point lead over the Congress declined in 2004 to barely 4 per cent.
In Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh too, the BJP suffers from anti-incumbency. It cannot make up its likely losses there through the small gains it might score in Delhi, Bihar and Himachal.
Only a big state like Uttar Pradesh can permit recouping. But the BJP got all but wiped out in the recent UP Assembly elections.
A recent meeting of BJP MPs from Rajasthan, convened by party President Rajnath Singh, witnessed sharp attacks on Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje by an emerging alliance between Brahmin and Dalit leaders -- a version of "the Mayawati formula."
Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh seethe with dissidence. There's a complete breakdown of law and order in Chhattisgarh, expressed in the growing Naxalite movement and the state's resort to naked repression, exemplified by the detention of human rights activist Binayak Sen.
The NDA is shrinking as its allies desert it -- including the Shiv Sena, the BJP's only ideological partner. Ms. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress also seems all set to quit.
The only non-UPA parties that stand to substantially improve their tallies in an early election are the Telugu Desam and AIADMK. But they have joined the United National Progressive Alliance.
A recent opinion poll by NDTV-GfK-Mode forecasts a reduction in the NDA's Lok Sabha seats from 180 to 168. This assumes that the BJP would win 116 seats (in place of 138). But under many plausible scenarios, the BJP could do much worse, going down to under 100 seats.
If uncertain electoral prospects were the BJP's sole problem, it could still live with it. But the party faces multiple crises of ideology, strategy, and mobilisation, as well as organisational disarray.
It can no longer project itself as a credible conservative platform, with a degree of popular support remotely comparable to what it enjoyed until the late 1990s. These crises are structural. The BJP is clueless about them.
Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments