As I See It
Limited presidential options
In an article, "Presidential Options," on June 28, I took the liberty of saying: "The acid test for Pervez Musharraf will come on Oct 8, when the present Chairman JCSC and VCOAS retire. The president has to take 'the calculated risk' of appointing a full-time COAS Pakistan army, advancing the date will be a sign of good faith and will go a long way in defusing the present situation. Thereafter, the aim should be the conduct of free and fair elections, it making least difference as to who the genuinely elected representatives of the people are and which party they belong to as long as they have sworn allegiance to Pakistan before entering the electoral process. Unless governance of the country is in the hands of those chosen by the people, this will eventually descend into the violent hands of those who control the streets."
Attempting to pre-empt a meltdown of his presidency Pervez Musharraf took on the judiciary on Mar 9, the blowback is now looming in his face six months later. Manhandling of the man ousted in his counter-coup on Oct. 12, 1999, has compounded the situation. Mian Nawaz Sharif should have been tackled politically as suggested by PML (Q). His credibility was in question because of the evasive explanation of the agreement with the Saudis. The govt's. trademark ham-handed way has rejuvenated him politically. Sharif's popularity was force-multiplied by the "return to sender" exercise. Shaikh Rasheed put it crudely but aptly, sending a politician to jail (or exile) is like sending him to "Susraal" (in-laws). A leader of some consequence, with a considerable following, Nawaz Sharif needed to be treated with the respect which is his due. Either Musharraf has become selective in applying the age-old adage taught to us as soldiers, "honour while you strike him down, the foe that comes with fearless eyes," or the blatant "show of force" was meant both as an example and a warning shot to friend and foe alike.
Other differences between March and September, over this period viz (1) the people of Pakistan have now become quite politically charged and are rooting for change, and (2) the Reference exercise has alienated the Honourable Chief Justice (CJ). If not, he is either not human, or there is more than meets the eye. During the period spent out in the cold in the streets the CJ was careful not to explicitly express his stance on a uniformed president. There is no love lost between Musharraf and himself. Why the Honourable CJ has not excused himself from presiding over the Bench in this case is surprising. One does not doubt the CJ's honesty or integrity, and it may not be a legal necessity, but propriety and moral high ground should dictate that. It would be a pipedream for Pervez Musharraf to hope for anything from the SC, at best he must be planning for the worst. A verdict against his two offices of profit, either immediately or beyond his present mandate, would be convenient, he can vacate the COAS post a few weeks earlier than intended. On the other hand, if ruled ineligible for re-election, his nomination papers for president go up in smoke.
Pervez Musharraf needs good counsel, to start with, from his immediate family. His mother, wife and children have conducted themselves in exemplary manner, rather uncommon in any country's (particularly in the third world) hierarchy, and that includes functionaries down the line. One would not be surprised if they opt for a graceful exit, now! Contrast that with the stance of his official inner circle, consisting of the National Security Advisor Tariq Aziz, his Principal Staff Officer, and the three intelligence chiefs, DG ISI, DG MI and DG IB, who would counsel brazening it out.
An unofficial inner circle consisting of a controversial three star who is a real-estate specialist, a couple of arms merchants and bridge playing partners, and a handful of his course mates, etc., have a vested interest in Musharraf's staying in place. Include scores of those living on the gravy train, will they turn away from being benefited (and still benefiting) by his imperial benevolence? Loaded advice, which got him into this mess in the first place, will come from those who secretly wish for a Musharraf meltdown but publicly proclaim their loyalty to him. As for Ch. Shujaat and his party, their advice seems to be either given lip-service or simply ignored. Advice notwithstanding, does Pervez Musharraf's psychological profile suggest that he will give up in the face of adversity? More likely, he will dig in his heels and fight it out, and damn the consequences!
One option would for Pervez Musharraf to go the "Pinochet route." General Pinochet executed Chilean President Salvadore Allende in a bloody army coup in 1973 and became president. "Elected" president in 1982, he lost the Referendum, meant to give him another 8 year term, in Oct 1988. Pinochet stepped down as president in 1990, but continued as Commander-in-Chief of the Chilean Armed Forces till 1998, retiring at the ripe old age of 83, and, thereafter, becoming senator-for-life. If declared ineligible for election, Musharraf could possibly opt to continue as COAS for the foreseeable future. This would require a safe and loyal president, the odds-on choice being Shaukat Aziz, available conveniently as "a man of all seasons," and like David Copperfield's Barkis, "ready and willing."
Musharraf's legal eagle, Sharifuddin Pirzada, boasting an unenviable record for similar advice to all the Pakistan military rulers of the past, will almost certainly counsel the drastic option of "emergency." This could explain why the CJ's presence on the Bench in this particular case, coming to a head on Sept. 17, has not been challenged, the matter could become infructuous by then. Consider a possible "spoiling attack" by declaring emergency. The SC Judges would be required to take a fresh oath, easily knocking out 8 or 9 of the more activist, including the CJ, leaving a residual, more amenable Bench. It has happened in the past, it can happen again.
Emergency as a last resort is fraught with danger to the Federation, wide-scale street protests should be expected. The street reaction could be contained by having free and fair elections, committing governance to whatever government comes to power in fields other than defence and accountability. Pragmatically working towards that possibility, and appreciating the possible setback to the road back to democracy, PPP has been advising against a confrontation. Worse could happen, another general could replace Musharraf. Those waiting in the wings are very nice men. No one has the capability or the personality of Musharraf, and may not be that tolerant.
In all the hoopla, Ch Shujaat and PML (Q) have come out cleansed, the decks cleared of those deserting what they think is a sinking ship. Notice the deliberate avoidance of the word "rats." The uniform issue aside, without free and fair elections in the near future, we must fear for the future of this country. The people may reluctantly accept emergency, but not without a firm and credible commitment for a transparent electoral exercise under a genuinely neutral caretaker government.
Ikram Sehgal is an eminent Pakistani political analyst and columnist.
For all latest news, follow The Daily Star's Google News channel.
Comments