Panorama
Pakistan's beleaguered president
Just two months before his term of office as president expires, General Pervez Musharraf is getting increasingly embattled, and he now needs all the political skill he can muster in order to delicately balance the currents and cross currents of events that surround him, so that he can survive in office.
The first issue is the issue of his credibility as the key person to fight US's War on Terror. Pakistan's most "trusted ally," Washington, of late has been somewhat skeptical about his ability as well as his sincerity in eliminating the Taliban. It may be recalled that a couple of years after his bloodless coup that toppled former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, General Pervez Musharraf's regime got a new lease of life following the 9/11 tragedy.
Overnight, his service became essential to the West, in particular to the US, in its war on terror targeted towards the Afghan Talibans. Billions of dollars in economic and other aid flowed into the country, giving Musharraf a much-needed boost in the context of rejuvenation of the economy of the country.
In 2002, he was featured on the cover page of the prestigious Time magazine, and was declared the "man of the year." Much of that glow has now dimmed with the passage of time, with the West now complaining that Musharraf was not doing enough to eliminate the Pakistani Talibans from Pakistani soil.
On the contrary, large-scale Talibanisation has taken place along Pakistan's western border. The people of Federal Administered Tribal Area (Fata), who are mainly Pushtuns, have a great deal of sympathy for their Pushtun brethren of Afghanistan, and initially it was them who provided sanctuary and help to the Afghan Talibans who were fleeing from US bombardment following 9/11.
Today, the whole of Fata is under the influence of the Talibans, and the development has given rise to their Pakistani version. And ever since the political crisis in Pakistan began, the Talibans have been causing severe damage to the Pakistani army who are fighting them along the western border.
The Talibans have kidnapped Pakistani soldiers including officers, carried out deadly suicide bombings killing Pakistani soldiers, and recently took 280 soldiers hostage. They have demanded that 10 Taliban soldiers be freed and that Pakistani soldiers should leave Fata, before the hostages are released. Ironically, it is Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI), a component of Musharraf's government, which has been the mainstay for the revival in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It was the madrassas of JUI that provided shelter to tens of thousands of extremists from both sides of the border. Unfortunately, Musharraf has no influence with the JUI who thrive mainly due to the army's protection, especially the ISI's. In desperation, Musharraf had sent 20,000 soldiers to Fata, which broke a cease-fire and a troop withdrawal treaty agreement that the army had signed with Pakistani Talibans in 2005.
But nothing outstanding could be achieved. No wonder Americans are unhappy with the ways the Talibans have been handled by Pakistani authority since 9/11. The US is now threatening to attack al-Qaeda hideouts in Fata if the government does move fast. For Musharraf and his army, this is a difficult task.
Secondly, there have arisen numerous internal challenges to his rule. His handling of the Talibans not only upset the Americans, it has also failed to convince the ordinary people of Pakistan that he is indeed trying to get rid of them. The issue has divided the nation. Another challenge came rather inadvertently when he fired the chief justice last March, which sparked protests by the opposition and important segments of the society.
He suffered a setback when the Supreme Court, in a popular move, reinstated the chief justice in July. Since then, a new dimension has been added to the movement against Musharraf, which is now being led by the lawyers. In this regard, one cannot but recall the courageous role played by the lawyers against authoritarianism, dating back from the British period to date. This development, with its far-reaching consequences, has made Musharraf's situation all the more precarious.
In order to pacify external and internal challenges to his regime, the beleaguered president (under pressure from the US) attempted to negotiate a power-sharing formula with Ms. Benazir Bhutto, who had been exiled by Musharraff in 1999, and her party PPP. The main issue in the talks has been whether or not Ms. Bhutto could be made the prime minister in the next government while Musharraf retained his position as president.
The crux of the problem is whether or not Musharraf can retain the presidency while still in uniform, which was allowed by a special act of parliament in 2003 when he reached the retirement age, on November 15, 2007. Another issue is the army's insistence that JUI once again be part of any future government.
However, before he could reach any agreement with Ms.Bhutto, the arrival of former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who was sent into exile to Saudi Arabia in 2000 after a presidential pardon in two criminal convictions, made Musharraf's balancing act difficult. It presented Musharraff with two options: first, allow Sharif back into the country and allow opening of a new front by his followers, and second, send him back again at the cost of facing the Supreme Court, which had earlier given a verdict in favour of Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan, and somewhat losing face with the people of Pakistan and the international community.
He opted for the second. From his point of view, this was best, especially in the context of a renewed campaign by the lawyers against Musharraf running for another term, and probable toughening, or complete pull out from the talks, of PPP's stance in the negotiations. However, his choice may have saved him only temporarily, because the move is fraught with several risks.
First, it may be viewed by the lawyers and the opposition as an illegal move. Second, the Supreme Court, with its new-found freedom, may be under moral obligation to uphold the rule of law once a petition against Sharif's deportation is filed by his PML-N party (which has already been filed, although the government says that Mr. Sharif was allowed to return to Pakistan and then deported on charges of corruption).
Third, Ms.Bhutto, who is already under pressure from several quarters for negotiating with Musharraf's power-sharing formula, may pull out of the talks completely (which she has already done, but says that the doors are still open).
From the above discussion, it is amply clear that President Pervez Musharraf would need all the skill and ingenuity in order to get another term to serve his nation. This is definitely going to be his tryst with destiny.
Dilara Choudhury is a columnist for The Daily Star.
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