Closeup Japan
What made him go so early?
He has not gone yet, but his imminent departure is now only a matter of days. Almost a year ago, when Shinzo Abe took the helm of Japan's main ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and with that post also received the additional and more important reward of being the prime minister of Japan, nobody could imagine that his reign would be so short.
It is because, prior to that, he had been seen and considered by many in Japan as the natural successor to his charismatic predecessor Junichiro Koizumi, and he was carefully elevated to the post through a long process that even saw the creation of a special party post that nobody had heard of before.
He was loud and vocal too, probably a bit louder in expressing his views on matters considered controversial in Japan. He also found time to write a book explaining his vision of a future Japan, and how he intended to turn Japan into a beautiful country. The book became a best seller and, ever since its appearance, has been loved and adored much by those who are longing for turning the wheels of history to make Japan a beautiful country again.
Moreover, he also had the added support of his wife, who herself at one time was seen as a role model for a new generation of wives of Japanese politicians.
So, the setting seemed from outside to be a perfect one for Shinzo Abe to rule, if not as long as his predecessor then at least for a relatively lengthy period of time. And he started also not that badly, as he tried to mend relations with Japan's Asian neighbours by selecting China and South Korea as destinations for his first official visits.
Then, all of a sudden, everything started to turn upside down as his new administration, filled up with his friends and close associates, got bogged down in the muddy waters of financial and political scandals one after another.
With that came the pension fund fiasco, causing much anxiety to the people as many of them thought that they might have been robbed of their lifetime savings just because of the arrogant and careless attitude of government officials.
Added to all that was a growing disparity between the haves and have-nots in Japan, a country that until recently boasted of its egalitarian middle class standing. This disparity has largely been reflected in the income levels of people living in big cities and of those who had to stay in provincial towns and rural communities to keep the lifeline of Japan's economy floating.
All these negative aspects dealt a severe blow to Abe administration in the upper house of the Japanese Diet's election last July, when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suddenly realised it that had been robbed of not only of its traditional support bases in rural areas, but also the capability of outmanoeuvring the opponents in the numbers game that was essential for paving the way for the bills it submitted to the parliament to be implemented.
The prime minister was visibly shocked and upset. Though he adamantly refused to bow down to the pressure coming both from within the party and outside, political analysts and observers have already started counting the days to his departure. But nobody really thought that the departure would come so suddenly and so abruptly.
It was only last Monday that Abe hinted of resigning should he fail to pass a crucial bill at the Diet, which would allow Japan's Maritime Self Defense Forces' vessels to continue providing fuel to the coalition warships involved in the war in Afghanistan.
In the policy speech that he delivered at the opening of the extraordinary session of the Diet, Abe wanted to make it clear that the mission was a vital contribution by Japan, as the fuel supply support was not being provided to US ships alone, but also to the ships of other countries like the United Kingdom, Germany and Pakistan.
No one obviously asked any questions about what Pakistani warships were doing with the free fuel they received to fight against terrorism in Afghanistan, as Pakistan hardly needs to dispatch her ships to somewhere as far as the island of Diego Garcia and then return to the port of Karachi to fight the war in Afghanistan. But that's a different point.
The opposition block is adamantly refusing to extend the mandate of the Maritime Self Defence Forces' deployment on the ground that the mission has proved to be a failure, as its declared purpose of helping the people of Afghanistan improve the standard of life and ensure greater security in the country has clearly been not achieved.
The prime minister was still willing to go ahead with the parliamentary debate, hoping that if the upper house, where the opposition now holds majority, blocked the passage of the bill, he could still go through by getting the support of the two thirds in the lower house in the second voting, which would allow him to implement the bill without depending on the upper house support.
But something must have gone wrong in that equation, which put Abe in a disarray, and he felt that he had no other option left but to announce his resignation. What really went wrong is not clear yet, but speculations are rife about two possible scenarios.
First, the mandate of Japan's Maritime Self Defence Forces' mission in the Indian Ocean is to expire on November 1. So there is a time factor in passing the bill before that expires, and Abe, probably after going through careful calculation of date and time, could realise that though he would be able to bypass the upper house in the second attempt, he would not be able to do it in time, which would require him to bring back the vessels and resend them after the adoption of the bill.
This would, no doubt, raise many unpleasant questions about the rationality of taking such a drastic measure, and Abe probably concluded that going that far would most likely hurt not only his own standing but that of the LDP as well.
The second factor that might have prompted Abe to leave office is the possible stance LDP's junior coalition partner, the New Komei Party, was supposed to take should the bill return to the lower house for a second voting.
The July election results were a severe blow to the Komei leadership as well, as the party that usually relies on block votes of diehard supporters of the religious group that it represents also suffered as it lost a few valuable seats.
The party leadership obviously now feels the need to keep some distance from the LDP, at least to convince its frustrated supporters that not everything has been sold out. So, there is also the speculation that Komei might have hinted at a different approach if the bill got back from the upper house and was placed for a second voting.
This might have been seen by a handful of insiders as the main cause of some kind of a nervous breakdown for Abe, and he simply could not avoid falling sick.
Now that Abe is set to leave, the race for the leadership is on within the LDP. His opponents, both within the party and outside, are somehow relieved and satisfied with the outcome. If critics within the party are now regrouping behind possible successors, the opposition is just keeping an eye on the movement and making it clear that the option of choosing the next prime minister should be given to the people by dissolving the lower house.
But LDP simply cannot afford to take that risk right now and, hence, moving ahead with the election of a new party leader on September 23. The outcome of the election would leave Abe as a past prime minister, who fell short by just three days in holding the post for a full year.
Monzurul Huq writes from Japan.
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