Matters Around UsIndo-US Nuclear Treaty
Government and leftists reach a 'compromise'!
The raging debate stemming from the differences between the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and its supporter leftists on the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal seems to have abated to some extent for the time being as both sides probably are not much willing to keep the pot boiling for a variety of reasons.
It is not meant to say that the government and the leftists have shifted their positions on the issue, but what is discernible is a pause in the controversy evidently mainly for the reason that both sides are weighing their likely losses and gains in the event the differences heighten leading to the inevitable -- the fall of Dr. Manmohan Singh government. It appears both are more or less convinced that such a development is unlikely to bring political dividends to either side and hence the government and the leftists are making relatively less noise over it.
However, both seem conscious that any concession on the much-talked about nuclear deal will be seen as weakness by the other side and as such both are sticking to their hitherto positions even though less acrimony is being noticed these days. If prime minister Dr. Manmohan Singh or external affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee are apparently in no mood to show any flexibility, main leftist leader Prakash Karat is unbending by the same token.
But fact remains that the dispute centering the nuclear deal is not threatening the UPA government, as seriously as it appeared sometime ago though the row has not subsided.
The ruling rainbow coalition is nearing two third of its five year term although it is a minority government relying totally on the outside support of the leftists, who attached no strict conditions to the government for their cooperation. The communist party of India (Marxist), the major left force and its allies are opposed to the US understandably on ideological line.
They are not supposed to relish a cordial relationship with Washington, but the government of Dr. Manmohan Singh has developed closer ties with the US. The civilian atomic cooperation accord broadly reached during president George Bush's visit to India in 2005, and finalised recently, is an eyesore for the leftists and it is no surprise.
But the government-leftists differences have undeniably created uncertainty about the future of the Indian government although most analysts believe that things are unlikely to reach such a pass that will warrant a fall of ruling coalition. The current government is at the helm on support of the leftists and in the event of the withdrawal of this crucial support, Dr. Manmohan Singh ministry will collapse as a logical development to the situation.
The ruling alliance led by the Indian national Congress of Mrs. Sonia Gandhi is firm in the saddle with no major problem threatening its existence. But the differences over the nuclear deal is causing a serious rift between the government and its leftist supporters has
changed the overall scenario in the largest democracy of the world.
Otherwise, it is a measure of success for the UPA government headed by Dr. Singh that it has completed most part of the tenure without confronting any major crisis although some minor rupture was unavoidable.
Following the last general elections, ruling alliance replaced another coalition government -- National Democratic Alliance (NDA) -- headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The UPA has no requisite majority in the house, but it formed the government on the support of the communists, who have 60 members. Many thought that this outside support would not last long since the leftists do not see eye to eye on many issues with the UPA even though they have common approach on the issue of secularism and some other broad matters.
Such assessment had largely been belied since the understanding remained somewhat unhindered although some issues created some misunderstanding between the two in the past, but not to the extent of causing any major problem. Foreign investment, too close relations with the United States, and policies towards agriculture are some of the issues that caused differences.
But presently the much-talked about Indo-US civilian nuclear deal is proving to be a difficult nut when the leftists are opposing the agreement tooth-and-nail while the government is hell-bent to go ahead with this. The differences would not have mattered had the UPA enjoyed majority in the lower house.
But what now may take a serious turn is the possibility of the fall of the government triggered by the withdrawal of the support by the left if the differences exacerbate.
India is experiencing coalition culture for sometime past when it comes to governing the country and it is now almost inconceivable that any single party can have its government in the south bloc. Needless to say that this pattern of government is getting strengthened in India and the present UPA government is no exception.
Gone are the days when a single political party could muster enough support in the lower house of parliament and stake claim to form a government of its own. Even the major parties seldom these days remotely dream of having an absolute majority in the 545-member lower house of parliament (Lokshaba), elected by direct popular votes. They either seek to reach electoral understanding before the voting or look for like-minded parties in the event of necessity to form of government as an absolute majority is often lacking.
The previous NDA government and its successor UPA alliance -- all fit in the same milieu of coalition culture. The coming together of different political forces for the purpose of rule is not unusual in parliamentary democracy, which may come by both under compulsion or sheer political understanding.
Speculations were rife in the Indian political circles hardly a few weeks ago that the midterm or early elections are round the corner. The reason for such talk making the rounds is obviously the government-leftists dispute. Will the government be benefited by snap or early polls? What about the left parties, which have now maximum number of seats in parliament since the independence of India?
Evidently, the stake is high for both since it may be difficult for them to retain the present position -- the UPA being in power and the left having a strong position in parliament and an influence on the government. If the government chooses to continue with the nuclear deal, it will irritate its supporter leftists, who eventually may be forced to take a tough decision like calling off the support from the government, meaning the fall of the ruling coalition.
At the same time it is also very difficult for government to roll back from the deal, which is seen as a landmark accord by many Indians -- let alone the ruling circles -- as a "special" facility by no less a country than the United States. So, Dr. Manmohan Singh government cannot scrap the deal even when the pressure to do is quite strong.
On the other hand, it is assumed that most Indians are not willing to see their country going for midterm elections somewhat "unnecessarily" and they may blame the left should the voting finally happen. The leftists may end up with losses in the polls and leaders are divided on support to the UPA on the nuclear debate.
Elderly Jyoti Basu along with Sitaram Yuchori are believed to taken a soft line as they are against early polls. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat and some others seem more hardliner. Similarly, the ruling circles have also hawks and doves on the issue.
However, a softening of approach is noticeable in both sides and probably few would oppose an unwritten compromise for it's a kind of compromise without a loss of face. The leftists are not insisting on scrapping the deal, but are only asking the government not to proceed further with it. The government cannot roll back, but may slow down the progress towards its implementation.
The accord requires India to approach the international atomic agency in Vienna for approval of the deal under which New Delhi will receive manifold cooperation including supply of fuel for developing its civilian nuclear sector. Main opposition NDA says the deal is welcome but sees it as limiting India's sovereignty on atomic programmes.
The leftists consider it anti-national in addition to their known opposition to the US. NDA's stand is not bothering the government, but the leftists are a headache on the issue. May be the UPA alliance and the leftists are seeking to strike a balance -- the former will not hurry in implementing the deal while the latter will not demand scrapping of it.
But none can afford to be seen as having lost ground on the issue and as such both would continue to harp on their known positions -- albeit not vociferously. It can be a kind of unofficial compromise for the time being as it may suit the strategies of both even though it will be height of folly to assume that the dispute has been largely resolved or the controversy has died down.
Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.
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