Closeup Japan
Fukuda's new cabinet reflects an old and familiar lineup
As had been predicted by the media for almost a whole week, Yasuo Fukuda, the veteran Japanese politician seen by many as the more sober and milder politician among the leadership of Japan's main ruling Liberal Democratic party (LDP), won a majority vote at the lower house of the Japanese Diet last Tuesday to become country's 91st prime minister.
Though in the upper house vote count he came second to the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan, Ichiro Ozawa, Fukuda was declared winner following a constitutional provision that stipulates that, should there be split decision between the two chambers, the choice of the lower house takes precedence. He also becomes the first post-war Japanese prime minister to follow in the footsteps of his father in assuming the post.
There was nothing unexpected in this result, like the unfolding of the drama two weeks ago when Shinzo Abe stunned the nation and political pundits by announcing his sudden resignation just two days after he delivered his policy speech at the Diet. The overwhelming majority that LDP still enjoys in the lower house, coupled with a relatively slow unfolding of subsequent events, gave a clear signal that the next Japanese prime minister was to come from among the politicians who were feeling a bit uneasy about the fallouts of the economic reforms that the two subsequent administrations of the immediate past were vigorously pursuing.
It is because of such fallouts that Abe lost much of his earlier backing, and the hurdle he was facing in passing a bill allowing Japan's maritime self-defense forces to continue a controversial refueling mission in the Indian Ocean served as a catalyst for his downfall.
Hence, there is a need for the ruling block to look back and try to correct the past mistakes so that the sufferings of the ordinary masses can at least be eased a bit. In Yasuo Fukuda party stalwarts found such a trusted figure, and did not hesitate to extend their support for his candidacy to become the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
The leaders of the party enjoying majority in the parliament have traditionally served as prime ministers of Japan in the past, though there were notable exceptions when coalition governments had to be formed to counter challenges coming from the other side.
Though he had already assumed the post of prime minister and formed a cabinet of his own choice, Fukuda joined the race relatively late, he quickly unseated former foreign minister and party Secretary-General Taro Aso from the position of the front- runner. Aso didn't lose time in announcing his candidacy right after Abe made his resignation public, and soon became the much talked about possible successor of the outgoing prime minister.
This prompt initiative of Aso also fuelled the rumour that he might have been behind a conspiracy that pushed Abe to take the hasty decision to resign. Abe, however, denied any conspiracy theory behind his resignation, relieving Aso from the burden of that suspicion. He, however, declined an offer made by Fukuda to take a cabinet post, saying that he needed rest for the time being.
The cabinet that Fukuda has formed to salvage the LDP at a time of deep crisis, and regain public trust, does not sound convinced about its capability to perform the difficult task at a much more difficult time. There are a number of reasons to be skeptical. First, though the cabinet is a brand new one under a brand new leadership, it has more or less retained the set-up of the same cabinet that Shinzo Abe formed just two weeks before his abrupt resignation.
Fifteen ministers of the previous administration remained in the cabinet, with thirteen keeping the same posts. Of the two new faces in the administration, one, the new defense chief Shigeru Ishiba, had already served earlier as the chief of the then defense agency in the Koizumi administration. That leaves only one new induction in the whole cabinet, which is Education Minister Kisaburo Tokai, who gained his first cabinet post. So, Fukuda virtually inherited a whole cabinet that was formed to carry out tasks of a relatively different nature under a leader whose agenda differed significantly from that of Fukuda's.
Critics, as a result, have already started asking whether an old cabinet that had a different agenda than what Fukuda is saying to have set for his administration would be able to salvage the party which has been forced into a corner right from the day it lost control of the upper house of Japanese Diet in late July.
Second, Fukuda did not have much time to ensure that new cabinet members were clean, and would not become embroiled in scandals that tainted Abe administration. As a result, his cabinet includes at least one such controversial figure, who, in the past, had been criticised for being involved in financial irregularities.
And finally, critics also point out that the election process of Fukuda itself shows a return to the old days of LDP factional politics, when pork-barrel spending to keep local support groups happy was in widespread use. Many politicians are now clamouring for the same kind of spending, under the slogan of narrowing economic disparities in the society. How the administration is going to tackle such trends is yet to be seen.
But, for Fukuda and his cabinet, the greatest danger might come from the confrontational mood that is now brewing in Japanese politics. The new prime minister will soon face a decisive political battle for power with the opposition, which has been mounting a strong political offensive ever since it gained control of the upper house in July.
Though Fukuda made it clear that he preferred discussions with the opposition parties, the opposition block, particularly the largest opposition Democratic Party of Japan, is bent on unseating the LDP from power and will try to use every opportunity to seek a showdown with the ruling party.
The opposition has set a March 2008 target to topple the government and, with that aim, DPJ would most likely try to block almost every bill submitted to the Diet, thus making the work of the administration extremely difficult. The ultimate outcome of such a confrontational atmosphere would rationally be the dissolution of the lower house, which would pave the way for a fresh election.
How skillfully Fukuda will be able to do that without harming the interest of the party needs to be seen. Any miscalculation might lead to a serious mishap, which might also force Fukuda to play the same role that the deceased Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa played when he handed over power to a new coalition that unseated LDP in 1993.
Monzurul Huq writes from Japan.
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