Between The Lines
Mid-term poll probable, not inevitable
What one imagined was a storm in the tea cup has not subsided. The Communist Party of India (Marxist), the main Left group, has prepared itself to part company with the Congress-headed coalition at the Centre. The rest of the Left would follow suit. This may make the mid-term poll probable, if not inevitable.
There is, however, more to the CPM's decision, not the Indo-US nuclear deal alone. The party is trying to wipe out its record of "going along" with the government on the economic policies which have benefited the upper half. In the process, the party has unwittingly strengthened the hold of multinationals over India and reduced nearly 70 million people to the penury of the British days.
The Left will have to go before people with an ashen face to seek their forgiveness. They expected it to make the Congress-led government depart from the pre-World Bank policies. Instead, the Left became part of the establishment and felt satisfied over taking unimportant decisions like choosing India's vice-president. A party believing in revolution supported the status quo, enjoying the distant glow of power. At times, it barked, but the Congress knew it would never go beyond that -- and bite.
If and when there is a no-confidence motion against the Congress, the Left will be hard put to posture itself. It cannot support the motion, which the BJP will back or initiate. Nor can the Left be happy to see the government staying in power after "operationalising" the Indo-US nuclear deal. True, the majority in both houses of parliament does not accept the nuclear deal. But the Indian system is such that the cabinet's approval binds the country. Parliament's sanction is not necessary.
Former UP chief minister Mulayam Singh Yadav was the first to announce his support to any political party, even the BJP, in its efforts to oust the government. But he would prefer the Left doing so, as he has said. The Left supporting the no-confidence motion would amount to voting with the BJP and joining hands with the known communalists, something as bad as supporting the Indo-US nuclear deal.
This dilemma will become more embarrassing if and when the BJP decides to sponsor the no-confidence motion. Were the Left to abstain, the government would survive. This may give a wrong message to its cadres, which are keyed up to oust the government if it decides to go through with the deal. On the other hand, if the government falls because of the BJP motion, the cadres and even the liberals may not feel happy over the exit of a secular setup when the Left could have rescued it.
Yet, there is an option: the Left parties can write to the president of India, informing her about the withdrawal of their support to the Congress-led government, and stay at that. This may not force the government to resign. Even if it is in a minority in the 545-member house, it falls only when the opposition proves that it has crossed the magic figure of 272, the half-way mark. Both Mrs Indira Gandhi and P.V. Narasimha Rao ran the Congress governments without having a majority. Only the president can decide what to do with a minority government. Congress chief Sonia Gandhi probably anticipated such a situation. She was adamant to have the president of her choice. In Pratibha Patil Sonia has a rubber stamp president.
The Congress may stay in power, but its credibility will begin to slide. This may explain the sudden induction of Rahul Gandhi, Sonia's son, as the secretary-general in charge of the Youth Congress. I recall the time when Mrs Indira Gandhi installed Sanjay Gandhi in the same position in the Congress session at Chandigarh. However, at that time, the country was under the emergency. None dared to speak against the appointment. Even otherwise, the Congress leaders do not, and await the Congress president's indication. But will Rahul shore up the sagging stock of the party?
Today, there is no emergency. But the fear of Sonia is so pervasive that every bit of dissent in the Congress has been snuffed out. The dynastic stamp is probably important for even senior Congress leaders who have no base. Rahul's entry at least has opened the doors for young Congress MPs and others. Sonia did not allow them to come up till the induction of Rahul because she was afraid lest one of them should find a respondent chord in the country and become a challenge to Rahul.
Yet, leadership is not a plug of tobacco which can be passed by one leader to another. Rahul will have to prove himself. The impression that he, Jawaharlal Nehru's great grandson, has only to be there for the people to flock around him was proved wrong. He led the campaign during UP assembly election. The Congress went down further in the percentage of votes polled.
Rajiv Gandhi, imposed by his mother, proved his majority. He won 420 seats in the Lok Sabha, even though it was on the wave of sympathy after Mrs Indira Gandhi's assassination. Rahul is not even a familiar face as Rajiv Gandhi was before he became prime minister. Rahul will have to work at the grassroots, something which the Congress has forgotten.
Yet, much will depend on the programs the Congress projects. The Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, which promises every family a half-year employment, would help, although the pilferage in the program is substantial. But how will the Congress explain the disparities its policies have created, class-wise and state-wise?
The plus point of the Congress is that the BJP, its main rival, is in the doldrums. It could not even pass an economic resolution at the national executive held a few days ago. The party has preferred to go still deeper into Hindutva, not realising that this line pulled it down in the last general election.
The third front, United National Progressive Alliance, may be the dark horse. All its constituents are the parties which may benefit from the anti-incumbency factor. They are the ones who were replaced, and they are the ones who stayed in the opposition as separate entities. The voters in India have no real choice. No new elements have come up to contest against the existing political parties -- the difference between them is that of Tweedledee and Tweedledum.
The Left is bound to pursue the question of the Indo-US nuclear deal. The middle class, embedded to consumerism, is not opposed to the deal. But what can make the difference is the projection that the deal has lessened India's sovereignty. The Left has not been able to build up a convincing case on this point. It is a pity.
Kuldip Nayar is an eminent Indian columnist.
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