Perspectives
What awaits the AL
THE BNP, the immediate past party in power, is already divided into rival groups for reasons convincingly advanced by a score of political analysts. This scribe also gave his considered views last week in this space. Since the Jatiya Party (JP) came about in the same way as the BNP (from the hands of another dictator) it is also inevitably in shreds for similar reasons.
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), virtually being a break-away faction of the BNP, has practically proved to be still-born. Some of the lesser political parties have risen to the surface like air-bubbles and already vanished -- disappearing almost unnoticed.
So far, only the Awami League (AL) remains in one piece, with its leaders, however, keeping their fingers crossed with regard to the party's fate. They, too, are jittery over what has happened to the country's body politic and have been severely jolted by the new political trends.
The AL is, however, a bit different in the material circumstances in which it emerged as the country's first constitutional opposition in 1949 in the face of stiff resistance from ruling Muslim League government which drove it from the pillar to the post. Right from its birth it had a roller coaster journey, garnering rich political experience along the way. It witnessed numerous ups and downs and intra-party conflicts and changes of guard before it came of age. It is, therefore, far from easy for any quarter to break its unity which has been tested and survived many times in the past. As a result, the AL fraternity is once again obstinately holding together for survival.
In its long struggling history, the AL deftly underwent metamorphoses of much more momentous nature than what is demanded of it now under the rubric of reforms. If the reforms are calibrated changes aimed at bringing about qualitative edge, seldom has there been a political party that has undergone so much change like Awami League which at times voluntarily jettisoned the baggage in its possession. If required, it seems prepared to do it again.
The active AL leaders still at large are painstakingly and with great care striking a delicate balance while their top leaders remain incarcerated. Among themselves, they seem to have buried the hatchet and ignored the canards and calumnies surrounding them. Notwithstanding these positive signs and careful avoidance of a confrontation with the authorities, it may indeed be difficult to effect a reconciliation between what is expected of them by the authorities and what must be achieved by the AL to preserve its integrity and ideals. Much will depend on the scheme of things worked out by those who are empowered to give new shape to the country's future politics.
Then, there is the question of the cynics still lurking in the party ranks. Even Bangabandhu, enjoying the unique stature of commanding their obeisance, failed to recognise them. Had he not failed to do so, there wouldn't have been the tragedy of August 15. The prestigious leadership of the party can also be an issue causing sudden flare-up. Sheikh Hasina's stature of being Bangabandhu's daughter put an effective lid on alternative possibilities. Now, as her detention prolongs, the patience at the party's grass-roots level will invariably be put to the test. So, by all appearances, the AL's hour of trial is not yet over.
A complex dynamic of history unfolding or repeating itself is already at work. It will be both intensified and compounded when politics will be unleashed and fresh elements added to its discourse. We shall then see politics shaping itself in full focus. We may have to wait until then to know of the AL's fate and the power equation of the leaders within the party.
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