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International concern over Myanmar
The Special Representative of the UN Secretary General Mr. Ibrahim Gambari has briefed the United Nations Security Council after his return from Myanmar. Mr. Gambari has stated that during his visit, he had conveyed the anxiety of the international community to the senior Generals of the Myanmar army led government and also to the detained Nobel laureate Opposition Leader Aung San Suu Kyi. In this context he particularly singled out the United Nations' concern over reports of night-time raids, arbitrary arrests, mass relocations and beatings being committed by security and non-uniformed elements.
The UN Special Representative's visit and his call for restraint appear to have had a beneficial effect. Latest BBC reports coming out of Bangkok have indicated that 2095 persons arrested since 27 September have been released after interrogation. This has included 772 monks.
We in Bangladesh, a neighbour, feel particularly worried over the recent chaotic developments in Myanmar. As in the past, we are anxious that the deteriorating situation does not boil over and result in another mass exodus of refugees from that country to Bangladesh. Over the years we have had to give refuge to hundreds of thousands of such refugees. We still have more than twenty thousand persons of Myanmar origin who have sought sanctuary in our southeastern bordering districts and refuse to be repatriated because they feel unsafe about going back.
This latest round of demonstrations and anger on the streets of Myanmar appear to have started innocuously on 22nd February when a small group of around 25 people brought out homemade posters and started shouting in a crowded Rangoon market. They were protesting against rising consumer prices and the absence of steady electricity. There was however nothing critical about Myanmar's military government. They appear to have however touched a raw nerve of the administration that has been in control of that country since 1962.
The economic situation in Myanmar has continued to deteriorate over the last three decades. Myanmar has toyed with the idea of opening up the economy to market forces and foreign investment but this has not worked because the military has been unwilling to release its grip on crucial areas like imports and exports, issuing of licenses, trading in rice and creation of infrastructure. This drawback and prevailing corruption have resulted in a near economic collapse with the official exchange rate of the Kayat, the local currency, being nearly 200 times lower than the black market rate.
The United Nations for the last two decades has been reporting that Myanmar is not only suffering from deepening poverty (with a per capita income about 30 percent less than Bangladesh) but also that there is a growing humanitarian crisis. This is indeed disappointing given the fact that Myanmar, in more ways than one, is comparatively better endowed in terms of resources as compared to Bangladesh. According to the World Health Organisation, diseases like Tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS are also increasing at a frightening rate in that country.
In this charged atmosphere of grinding poverty, the last straw appears to have been the decision to raise fuel prices on 15 August. This was done at the recommendation of the IMF. Gas prices rose by nearly 500 percent and that of diesel (which runs most of Myanmar) nearly doubled. The impact was immediate. Within days, activists were on the streets. Monks -- who can generally accurately measure economic distress by the food put into their begging bowls every morning -- decided to join in. The monks according to the published reports started participating in the protests in large numbers. This happened after government troops broke up a peaceful rally in the central town of Pakokku on 5 September. Three monks were hurt in the ensuing melee. Unfortunately, the traditional gesture of apology from the government (for any attack on monks, who are revered) was not forthcoming this time round.
Such a response on the part of the authorities was seen as an act of provocation and led to the Buddhist clergy forming a group termed as 'Alliance of All Burmese Buddhist Monks'. This newly constituted group declared that they would coordinate all protests against the government.
On 21 September, the Alliance issued a statement describing the military government of Myanmar as 'the enemy of the people'. They also pledged to continue their protests until they were able to 'wipe out the military dictatorship in Burma'. They also took two significant steps -- firstly, the reference became Burma instead of Myanmar (as favoured by USA, the vocal critic of the current military regime) and secondly, they tried to link up their movement with that of detained pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi. These measures were interpreted as waving of a red flag in front of the proverbial bull.
We subsequently witnessed in the electronic media the steady intensification of the scale of the demonstrations. This process culminated on 24 September when tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Rangoon. Key members of the Opposition party, the National League for Democracy also joined in, after initially distancing themselves from the action.
The deteriorating situation was however more or less contained through harsh measures implemented by the government from 27 September. There was a crackdown on the demonstrators. Several people were killed, including monks and thousands arrested for interrogation. The military government also made it clear that it believed that this unrest had been encouraged and supported by external forces not friendly to the regime.
One can understand the anxiety on the part of the international community about Myanmar. It is located in a strategic area where instability could have serious consequences. It is presently being wooed by Thailand, Japan, China and India for its enormous gas reserves -- by China for the possibility of gaining direct access through its territory to the Indian Ocean, by India not only for accessing to Myanmar gas for supplementing its energy needs but also for the agricultural potential that exists in that country. It is also of great interest to other western countries that are desperately trying to contain the outflow of drugs from the golden triangle that also includes Myanmar. They particularly believed that such containment would be possible if there was a regime change in Myanmar.
Nevertheless, there are certain realities that we have to acknowledge.
We should avoid falling into the trap of over-simplification. The situation in Myanmar is complicated. Creating a better situation in Myanmar will have to be carefully pursued and be a continuous process.
Mr. Gambari has succeeded in beginning a process that can bring change to Myanmar. The fact that Myanmar allowed him to visit times. Most recently in the midst of the present crisis, is encouraging. It shows that the reclusive Myanmar authorities want to maintain contacts with the UN.
Myanmar Senior General Than Shwe has announced that he is willing to meet with Aung San Sun Kyi. Despite his "pre-conditions," one should see this gesture as half-full rather than half-empty. It opens up the possibility of discussion, a process that might be long and arduous.
The international community also needs to be pragmatic. It would be a serious mistake to think that if the military administration left the scene tomorrow, all problems would automatically be resolved in that country. Myanmar is not a homogeneous state. There are many armed ethnic groups that are opposed to central government rule and only a very tenuous ceasefire prevent the renewal of hostilities. The military have acted as a harsh brake in trying to contain this process of insurgency. It is also a key institution in Myanmar that cannot be wished away. Any peaceful solution to the crisis will have to involve all parties, including the military. If the military is not part of the solution, it will be difficult to find a solution.
There has been talk about additional sanctions. However one should be careful in this regard. One has to seriously consider whether such a step will help or hinder the UN's role and whether it will strengthen Mr. Gambari's hand as an effective mediator. We have to remember that further sanctions might just lead to confrontation or even the loss of dialogue between Myanmar and the rest of the world.
I believe that at the same time we should lean a little more on China and India. They have a long history of engagement with Myanmar and are consequently uniquely placed to play a pivotal role. Similarly there is also Japan. It can be an important actor because it is a major aid donor to Myanmar.
All of us -- the international community as a whole -- must do our part. The development in Myanmar are complex but solutions have to be found through flexibility. The present Myanmar administration needs to avail of the window of opportunity that has been opened for them. They need to move forward through reconciliation and release of political detainees. This will assist in the peaceful transition to democracy that will meet the aspirations of the people of Myanmar.
Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador who can be reached at mazamir@dhaka.net.
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