As I See It
Invitation to carnage
For a "made to order" event for terrorists (and motivated others) there could have been no better occasion to run riot than Ms. Benazir's homecoming after nearly a decade in self-exile. Once October 18 was announced as "BB" Day, wheels would have started turning in many dark corners about how to mar her "victory parade" in the worst possible way, and if possible to eliminate her.
For her supporters (and her) only one thing mattered, the size of the crowd greeting her, and driving home the perception it would create among friend and foe alike.
For an ideological terrorist Ms. Benazir is a magnet, a patented target of opportunity, for those with vengeance on their minds she is a target of virulent animosity and hatred. Targeting Ms. Benazir magnified the threat of terrorism in Pakistan.
Conversely, could this have been an attempt to build a backlash of sympathy for her, within and outside Pakistan?
Deadly attacks do not come out of blind spots alone, they can come from any and all directions, orchestrated mostly by those who stand to benefit and take advantage thereof, to destabilise the political order, to bring in anarchy, etc.
Five past midnight on October 19, two explosions, the first seemed to be a hand- grenade, followed by the deadlier one that left over 200 dead and more than double that injured. Those on top of "BB-mobile," representing almost the entire PPP hierarchy, should thank Rahman Malik; minutes before the attack he started acting like he was expecting something, his instincts are amazing!
14 kms give potential assailants many opportunities for creating mayhem; even with the target moving quickly multiple locations can be chosen with care for a concentric attack to be pressed home. To add to a bad security environment, night gives better cover for mounting such an ambush with greater impunity, and at will.
In security terms, the Bhutto convoy was a disaster waiting to happen, the only real question being how, when and where it would actually happen.
With the media-hype created, Ms. Benazir was programed into taking a calculated risk. One should have taken counsel of one's peers, or sane advice, discretion being the best part of valour, if not for oneself, at least for the many innocents who love you beyond compare or were on duty and were squarely in harm's way.
Political compulsions prevailed over good security sense, any qualms being overwhelmed by the raw emotions evoked when Ms. Benazir came on display, as usual in full populist flow.
In "An Anatomy of October 19 blasts," Adnan Gill enumerates facts mixed with circumstantial evidence, viz "(1) Ms Bhutto retreated to her heavily-armoured cabin just minutes before the bombs exploded (2), every PPP leader standing on the top of the armoured truck escaped the blasts virtually unscathed (3), numerous images of the bombings and their aftermath exist (4), government experts claim the second (and the deadlier) bomb consisted of 14-15 kgs RDX explosives and hundreds of nails and ball bearings."
Adnan Gill adds, viz "(1) RDX explosives are most powerful and stable, with velocity of RDX detonation at a density of 1.76 grams/cm³ being 8,750 meters per second (2) the shock-wave from the blast travels like a bubble and in a circular manner, and (very important) (3), dispersal pattern/direction of the shrapnel resulting from the blast can be managed and fashioned according to the need," unquote.
The first blast being of a relatively low-intensity, and the second blast of much higher-intensity, Adnan Gill analyses that "the initial blast did not trigger (what demolition experts call) a sympathetic blast or the second explosion, most probably due to the stable nature of RDX explosives.
This suggests that the second explosive was a shaped-charge from which shrapnel spread in an arc-pattern away from the truck. Suicide bombers have no control over the direction of the explosion.
By sheer luck (or was it deliberate) the trajectory of the blast was directed away from the truck in a cone-shape that spread (relative to the truck) from seven o'clock to one o'clock and so, viz "(1) virtually everyone and everything stayed upright on the armoured truck (despite Rahman Malik's warning to duck down after the first blast) (2), people could be seen jumping off the truck and others climbing down the stairs after the blasts, suggesting that no one on top was seriously injured, confirming that the shrapnel and force/shockwave of the blast stayed closer to the ground. Typically, a well-directed shockwave generated by 14-15 kgs RDX from such close proximity can turn the internal organs into gel (3), before the second blast the left door of the truck was in open position. Scant minutes before the blasts the truck was stopped to switch drivers; did the driver vacate the truck before the second blast? The Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) is to drive away as fast as possible to escape from the place of incident, why did the 'BB mobile' not take off in the 30-40 seconds after the first blast? (4), a vehicle engulfed in flames can be seen on the front-left side (9-10 o'clock) of the truck, exactly in front of a white Suzuki Alto that some reports allege carried the bomb. Still camera shots from other angles show that its front was ripped open. A spare wheel could be seen intact on the backside of the burning vehicle, could this be the vehicle that carried the shaped charge?" Unquote.
Ruthlessness and terrorism go together, there is no consideration for human life, in ones or twos or even dozens. In the business of spreading fear, the killing and maiming of as many people as possible accomplishes the terrorists' primary objective.
While one is grateful that Ms. Benazir escaped unscathed, Rahman Malik, stating on prime time TV that "human shields" were her prime protection, was extremely insensitive and reflects the intelligentsia's fear that Ms. Benazir is surrounded by callous aides with a reputation for "dirty tricks," with no qualms about sacrificing lives (human shields indeed!) as long as it is not theirs.
Hopefully, the blood of those killed and the sufferings of those injured will not be in vain, and lessons will have been learnt about the mostly South Asian political practice (and culture) of rallies and processions.
Who the perpetrators of this outrage are is anybody's guess, the blame game can go on and on, and be directed anywhere. It could have been Al-Qaeda or late brother Murtaza's boys burning with vengeance, or even someone in the regime's hierarchy acting on "who will rid me of this meddlesome priest (a la Becket)" -- type instructions.
Can we count out elements within the PPP wanting to highlight her Joan of Arc stance in western eyes in the "war against terrorism," on the other hand to play on her insecurity and make her more dependant on them, etc?
While the number of coincidences are too many to ignore, the attack could well have pre-empted others waiting down the road. Ms. Benazir is a political asset who needs the best possible protection one can give her. Is it possible? It is, by avoiding histrionics and dealing in a mature manner with hard facts, and than letting security professionals do the task being handled presently by amateurs.
Ikram Sehgal is an eminent Pakistani political analyst and columnist.
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