Between The Lines
Damage has already been done
New Delhi and Islamabad are trying to salvage whatever is left from the recent deals they have had. India has put its nuclear deal with America on hold in the hope that the passage of time would whittle down the opposition. Pakistan has a bigger problem because President General Pervez Musharraf's deal with Benazir Bhutto to have a joint rule has gone up in smoke in the wake of terrorists' attack on the welcome throng that went to greet Benazir. He proposes to have an interim government with her nominees to lessen the dent. The blame game is, however, on, both in India and in Pakistan. But there is nothing to suggest that either the Manmohan Singh government at Delhi or the Musharraf government at Islamabad have given up their respective deals. It is not foolhardiness that makes them resurrect the battered deals. It is their long-term thinking. Both Manmohan Singh and Musharraf honestly believe that the paths they have chosen are the best for their countries.
Although the future is hazy, one thing is clear -- that is, the damage has already been done. Both governments have been exposed and both have lost face, if not authority. Whatever they retrieve may not match the original.
The deals, even when discussed, had their ups and downs. Too much was sought to be compressed in too little a space. Yet, necessity more than persistence overcame the difficulties met almost at every step. While negotiating the deals, India and Pakistan assumed many things but found them lacking actuality when tested on the stone of reality.
Manmohan Singh was embarrassed when he found ministers in his coalition government against the operationalisation of the nuclear deal, even though they had supported it in the earlier cabinet meeting. The Left was dead set against the deal from the day one. Their stand to withdraw support from the government did not surprise Manmohan Singh. He kept talking to them and is still doing so. His calculation may be that he can push them till the approval of the next budget (April 2008). Then, even if they were to withdraw support, the general election would be only a year away from the due date -- May 2009. The Election Commission requires at least six months for preparations.
When the Leftists threatened to stop their backing a few months ago, Congress was determined to go ahead with the deal. It was prepared to be a minority government like that of Mrs Indira Gandhi for one and a half years in 1969, and of Narasimha Rao two decades later. In fact, the prime minister threw down the gauntlet to the Left, and his party's president Sonia Gandhi said that those who opposed the deal were the enemies of the country.
What made the Congress cave in was the opposition of coalition members. M Karunanidhi from Tamil Nadu, Sharad Pawar from Maharashtra and Lalu Prasad Yadav from Bihar argued that they would like to have the full term, one and a half years more, and not sacrifice the government at the altar of a nuclear deal. The Left has negotiated with the non-BJP parties to put up a joint front in the next session of parliament to prove that the government does not have a majority behind the deal.
On the other hand, America's pressure has not diminished. It has set a year-end deadline to wrap up negotiations with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Its eyes are fixed on selling nuclear energy plants worth billions of dollars.
At worst, America's loss is that the order for energy plants may be delayed. But India has lost much more: it has signed some preliminary agreements to the deal; more than that it had its face blackened from the day it voted against Iran at a meeting of the IAEA, and that too after the US ambassador's warning to New Delhi not to even abstain in view of "America's sensitivities."
It is apparent that the deal in India may die in due course, or take some other shape to allay reservations. But the terrorists' attack has put a question mark against the Musharraf-Benazir deal. Benazir has come to suspect the hand of some elements in the government. That is the reason why she wants some foreign agencies to be associated with the inquiry Musharraf has ordered. Understandably, the government has not agreed to this. Benazir may consider the inquiry under the supervision of the Supreme Court. India has had one.
Benazir's return does begin a new chapter in Pakistan because there will be a viable non-religious opposition to Musharraf and his supporters. But for her to say that her return means the return of democracy is hard to gulp down. She has herself accepted joint governance with the military. The khaki cannot be mixed with shervani in a people's government. Even otherwise, normal rights are going to be hard to establish in a country where the pre-eminence of military rules has come to be accepted. The very word, democracy, has been mutilated and because of a series of dictatorships at Islamabad, democracy has come to mean "guided democracy." And it is no secret that Benazir had to compromise with the military junta to return home. This understanding will come in the way of true democratic government. She would soon find out that the military is more entrenched than before, and that military foundations command 70 percent of Pakistan's economy, both business and industry.
The only bright spot in her return is the declaration that she would fight terrorism, the Al-Qaida and the Taliban, with all her force if and when she returns to power. It is going to be a difficult job because religious parties have widened and deepened their influence. Musharraf is not going to allow their elimination because he may use them as the counterforce to curb Benazir. Still, whatever she can do in combating terrorism is welcome because the entire region faces the danger of extremists coming to the top. New Delhi will specially welcome it because its perception is that Pakistan's ISI is at the back of terrorism in the world.
If she can curb terrorism in Pakistan she will be forgiven for all her sins. Here, too, Washington is watching her closely because it has stitched the arrangement between Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto. Yet, the deal alone is not enough. Her promise to give roti, kapada aur makan is what will endear her to people. Mrs Indira Gandhi too once promised that she would oust poverty if people were to return her to power. They did so but poverty was not even dented fractionally.
Kuldip Nayar is an eminent Indian columnist.
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