Regime change in Nepal
AFTER three weeks of political turmoil, Nepal has finally got a new coalition government. The moderate communist party, UML led coalition, has replaced the hard-line Maoist led coalition. When the Maoists pulled out of the government, opposition parties had to toil hard and wait long to materialise such a coalition to achieve a majority in the jumbo 601-member constituent assembly (CA), and subsequently lead the government. All these mammoth efforts have put a veteran communist politician Madhab Kumar Nepal at the helm.
The fall of the Maoist-led government in Nepal had pushed the country into an unprecedented political turmoil. It was unthinkable that the rule of the former Maoist rebels would be so short lived.
The crisis was ignited by the Maoists' move to sack the army chief without the consent of the coalition partners. This forced the disgruntled coalition partners to withdraw their support, turning the Maoists into a minority. The opposition Nepali Congress, especially India, put pressure on President Dr. Rambaran Yadav to overturn the government's decision. The president could not sustain the pressure and reinstated the sacked army general, Rukmangad Katawal.
In another unprecedented move following the president's order, the Maoist Prime Minister Prachanda stepped down, protesting "dual power centres." Now, they have decided to launch political showdowns across the country against the president's "unconstitutional move." They have also said that they would not join any coalition to form a government unless the president "rectifies his move." Now, the largest party in the CA has opted to sit in the opposition.
Though a new government is in place, the turmoil is not over yet. The three-year-long peace process is at risk, the elected CA, which is obliged by law to write a new constitution by June next year, is virtually at a standstill, and some of the popular programs initiated by the Maoist-led government are at stake.
Integration of the rebel army into the national army and other security forces or its rehabilitation into society has been jeopardised as the former rebels and the national army face each other in a cold war like situation.
The newly formed government has many Herculean tasks to accomplish. Though the parties have succeeded in gaining a majority in the 60-member CA, such a coalition is so fragile that it may break up anytime. The wrangling has already begun in the allocation of ministries.
Besides, the UML expressed commitments to the extremely contradicting demands of the parties while making this coalition. These commitments will prove very costly when the government begins functioning. Containing the kingmaker regional parties will, especially, be the biggest challenge for the new prime minister.
The new government will have to spend much of the time handling the outraged Maoist cadres, who have now moved to street protests that will continue across the country. One indigenous group in the southern plains has already announced protest programs as a welcome note to the new government. Handling these groups is extremely important but very tricky.
Though the Maoists were unscrupulous in handling the treasury, they were able to introduce some extremely popular programs for the rural and urban poor. These programs have further attracted large chunks of the population towards the Maoists.
For the Maoist government, they were pilot projects. The burden of implementing the full-fledged programs has been transferred to this government, but it will be very difficult with the limited resources. The new government has to include them in the budget.
The biggest challenge for the new government will be to contain the Maoists in the CA so that the constitution writing process moves smoothly. The CPN Maoist's seats in the CA amount to more than the sum of two other largest parties, Nepali Congress and UML.
By law, this government can stay in power till next June, and has to give the new constitution by then. The law also demands that a two-thirds majority pass each article of the new constitution. It seems almost impossible for the CA to function smoothly when the Maoists are unwilling to let the credit go to their rivals.
There are fears of a bigger setback in the political developments. What if the new constitution is not formulated by then, or what if the Maoists intensify protests to capture state power through force. The new government has too short a time to settle all those disputes and accomplish the desired jobs.
Yet, the new prime minister enjoys the benefit of the doubt -- the veteran leader has not been tested as the leader in the government yet. The success of the government depends upon his ability to placate the former rebels. The best way for the prime minister to guarantee smooth functioning of the government will be, in any way, to bring the Maoists into the ruling coalition.
Indra Dhoj Kshetri is a Nepali journalist.
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