The Praful Bidwai Column
Moving from Moditva to sanity
When Mr. Narendra Modi walked out of an interview with the CNN-IBN channel last week after being questioned about the 2002 carnage in Gujarat, he probably didn't realise he was inflicting grave damage upon his image. The walkout's impact, which showed Mr. Modi as confused, arrogant and unreasonable, has since been magnified by Tehelka's exposure of the barbaric violence planned and encouraged by his regime.
Mr. Modi's contrived image as a swashbuckling, super-confident leader who can ride out any adversity has gone for a toss. This will extract a high price as he prepares for electoral battle in December. Five years ago, the Bharatiya Janata Party won a two-thirds majority in the assembly despite (or because of?) the violence. Today, it's more vulnerable than at any time during its 12-year tenure in Gujarat.
Gujarat's elections will prove a national turning-point. If the BJP wins them, the result will greatly influence its leadership succession. In conjunction with the Himachal Pradesh Assembly polls -- in which the BJP is expected to oust the Congress -- it'll help it stem losses in the next Lok Sabha elections. (A poll forecasts a 10 percent fall in the BJP's national tally.)
Losing Gujarat will be a massive setback for the BJP, but promote a long-overdue correction to the ghastly trend that brought about the violence of 2002, in which 2,000 Muslims were butchered. This could herald the BJP's relegation to the political margins, where it belonged until the Ram temple campaign clicked in the late 1980s. This could transform Indian democracy.
Enemies beset Mr. Modi -- mainly from his own parivar. The Vishwa Hindu Parishad, RSS, and significant sections of the BJP oppose him.
The last comprise more than a dozen legislators, including two former chief ministers, an ex-home minister, and a former union minister. They are itching to defeat Mr. Modi. They have held about 80 rallies, including an unprecedented 300,000-strong one in Rajkot.
Beneath the dissidence lie shifts in the BJP's support-base. Two caste groups, Kolis and Leuva Patels, have moved away. The Kolis are among the state's largest cultivating castes. They voted massively for the BJP in 2002. By 2004, 55 percent of their vote went back to the Congress. The Patels dominate Gujarat's agriculture, small industries, and diamond polishing. Their vote is decisive in one-third of constituencies.
Both groups are upset with Mr Modi because of his extremely abrasive style and refusal to share the loaves and fish of office.
Gujarat's adivasis and civil society organisations (CSOs), too, are angry with Mr. Modi. In 2002, the Congress got 11 tribal seats, and the BJP 13. Now, important adivasi organisations are taking on the BJP.
Similarly, CSOs active among the victims of violence want to mobilise them to vote. The carnage, followed by persecution under anti-terrorism laws, social intimidation, economic boycott and political marginalisation, pulverised Muslims into submissiveness. But now there's growing resistance.
All this offers the Congress a chance to vanquish "Moditva," that diabolical combination of communalism, human rights violations, and extremely dualistic elitist policies.
Mr. Modi claims Gujarat is a high-performing state with all-round growth. In reality, Gujarat is misgoverned, with warped development, where 74.3 percent of women and 46.3 percent of children are anaemic. Gujarat's per capita debt exceeds the ratio for UP and Bihar. Agrarian distress has driven 500 Gujarat farmers to suicide over four years.
Gujarat attracts industrial investment not because of its policies but because of a historical accident -- business groups invested there early on, and it has a petrochemicals cluster. Besides, the state offers "sweetheart deals" to business groups.
As the official Human Development Report (2004) points out: "Gujarat has reached only 48 percent of the goals set for human development." It lags behind thanks to "several distortions in (its) growth path," including agricultural stagnation.
Its gains in literacy, education, health, nutrition, etc are much lower than its GD growth. Recent "deceleration in (its) achievements" is cause for "serious concern."
Gujarat's human development and gender empowerment ranks have recently fallen. Although it is number 4 among Indian states in per capita income (down from Number 2), it is number 6 in education, number 9 in health, and number 12 in participation.
Gujarat is severely patriarchal. Its sex-ratio is 487:1000 in the 0-4 age-group and 571 in the 5-9 group (national averages, 515 and 632). Its health indices have dropped relative to other states, and are barely higher than Orissa's.
In social sector spending as a proportion of public expenditure, Gujarat ranks a lowly 19 among India's 21 major states.
The industries that have flourished the most in Gujarat are all highly polluting: poisonous chemicals -- Vapi is the world's fourth most toxic hub -- textile dyeing, ship-breaking, and diamond polishing (which turns young people blind).
Gujarat hasn't still recovered from its textile mill industry's wholesale closure since the 1980s. In Gujarat, labour exploitation is extreme. On minimum wages, Gujarat ranks eighth among Indian states.
As for the claim that Gujarat is well-administered, its legislature's Public Accounts Committee has severely indicted the government for awarding contracts in major schemes without tenders, causing a loss of hundreds of crores. Tax breaks have cost Gujarat some Rs 15,000 crores. Gujarat's law-and-order situation is appalling. Its religious minorities (including Christians) and its Dalits suffer extreme discrimination and exclusion. More than 100 Dalits were murdered in Gujarat over the past three years.
The harassment of hundreds of Muslims originally arrested under draconian anti-terrorism laws continues unabated -- although these laws were repealed. The absence of the rule of law means a hollowing out of democracy.
The Congress has a historic chance to inflict a stinging defeat on the BJP. To do this, it must offer an alternative vision, take a strongly secular line, build alliances with other anti-communal parties/groups, and run a spirited campaign with a wise choice of candidates, while keeping the BJP dissidents at arm's length.
The fight is winnable -- and certainly worth winning.
Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.
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