Polarisation: Three scenarios generate fearful spectacles

On the left of this spectrum lay the major left-leaning parties and the main opposition, the Awami League (AL). On the right, the BNP-led four party coalition is apparently being beefed up by the Ershad faction of the Jatio Party (JP). Although the battle line is yet to be drawn clearly, it will be perhaps sooner.

The precise timing of this alignment is important and its ramifications could be ominous. Of the three major scenarios that one can foresee, all seem to lead the nation toward more confrontations. The two major political streams have taken diametrically opposing stands at a time when lawlessness, price hike and a tense geopolitical situation has taken the global economy into a spin.

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Backdrop to a fractured polity

The homogeneity of our nation didn't ensure the growth of a home- grown consensus politics. This prevents us from standing in unison while facing challenges from within and without. Geo-politically, the CHT is tense again. In the South-West, the Sorbohars have shown their grit to the joint forces and rendered 'operation spider wave' inconsequential. Islamic extremists stalk the north while the center of the country has witnessed extreme lawlessness and anarchy in recent days.

None of the above would have mattered much if the foundation of our parliamentary democracy had rooted itself firmly. The parliament hardly saw the faces of opposition lawmakers since the early 1990s and various parliamentary committees remained dis-functional due to an ongoing 'melodrama' centering such committee's composition.

The 1996-2001(7th parliament) parliament had 23 sessions and 382 working days. Of the 189 bills passed in that parliament, none were opposition- mooted. As well, a 12 day long parliament (6th parliament), which was the shortest in the nation's history, had no opposition participation. The BNP walked out of the parliament on 14 July 1996, which was the very first day of the session, alleging the speaker of obstructing its members from speaking. The BNP is in power now and the opposition AL is exacting its retribution in similar manners. People did not vote them to play this musical chair.

Acts of wanton criminality, on the other hand, keep scaring investors away. The graphics of criminality entails a dreadful spectacle that slides from bad to worse each day. The total number of people murdered in 2001 was 3,690. In 2002, it rose to 3361. Surprisingly, in the eight months of 2003, the death count from murder reached 3,390. This atrocious ambience is being exploited by elements that had lost faith in the efficacy of the government and the sincerity of the opposition.

Scenario one: A showdown in the making

The leader of the opposition had already called for a movement to ouster what she said a 'corrupt and incompetent government' while the newly elected president of the FBCCI urged major political parties to settle their disputes through negotiation to ensure a healthy environment for economic prosperity. Among the foreign observers, diplomats from the USA and the EU have been urging for the same an umpteen of times.

This conflict-ridden scenario would have obviated us had the polarisation aimed at electoral dividends. But this is not the case now. The elections being years off, and the BNP-led coalition's two-third parliamentary majority having made the regime less amenable to the demand of a mid-term poll, the politics is heading toward a showdown if things don't improve in many fronts simultaneously, and sooner.

Scenario two: constitutionalism at stake

The absence of rules of law tends to devour the efficacy of all legal instruments. Of all the issues that had bedeviled our political atmosphere, law and order situations rank prominently. Then comes the partisan stand of the bureaucracy that had lost its neutral credibility over the last 12 years amid intense pressure from successive political regimes.

The police force too has been blotted with a partisan clout, resulting in their reluctance to treat the criminals with the treatment they deserve. The criminalisation of politics has ultimately given birth to the politicisation of all the criminals who find cool comfort under the patronage of local stalwarts. The police force is resource-starve and politically handicapped.

There is also an external element that has always been downplayed or relegated in our national politics. We often forget that if the price of a barrel of crude oil goes up by $5, we as a nation will pay more than $100 million a year from our poor exchequer. We also take little note of events that impact upon our decision- making freedom each day; events we neither have had hands in creating, nor our limited influence in global politics has any bearing over.

For instance, under the changed ambience of international political currents, most of the Muslim dominated nations feel the trauma of the US-led global war on terror. The US also looks for Islamic activists seeking to align with the Al-Qaeda to subscribe to a global Islamic creed that seeks to turn every Muslim state an Islamic one. Reports claim the number of Islamic extremists' outfit as 15 in our country.

Recently, an extreme manifestation of this ongoing polarisation was witnessed in the vicinity of Dhaka's court- house as pro and anti regime lawyers brick- battled to prove their points. The CHT situation meanwhile warranted the visit of the parliamentary committee of the CHT ministry to seek causes of, and remedies to, the ongoing skirmishes between hill and non-hill people. Does one think these incidents are isolated, piecemeal and transitory? Think again.

Terrorism in Khulna and Chittagong has two distinct characteristics. The targets of terror in the commercial capital are business magnets. In Khulna, another port city, politicians of the AL are targeted. These killings are related to political agendas of local stalwarts, which is hardly what we're interested about. The facts that the criminals seem to have a sound strategy to destroy the country's commercial atmosphere, as well as the growth of a constitutional polity, are dangerous enough.

Scenario three: a violent outcome

The nation banks on (a) good governance, (b) sound economic growth, and (c) rules of law. If good governance is in short supply and the economy languishes amid lawlessness and stymied growth, all our efforts will fail to uplift our standard of living. We can ill afford to lag behind and stagger while in the race.

As well, public opinion is something that we must learn to respect. In the 1991 election, the AL got 33.67 per cent of popular votes, which increased to 37.9 percent in 1996 and further to 40.24 percent in 2001. But this increase in the popular support stands in sharp contrast with the number of seats it won in the parliament. The AL's winning candidates were 101 in 1996, increased to 146 in 1996, only to nosedive to 62 in 2001.

The BNP too gradually increased its popular votes from 30.81 per cent in 1991 to 33.61 per cent in 1996 and further to 41.14 per cent in 2001. But, unlike the AL, the BNP's number of winning seats reduced from 144 in 1991 to 116 in 1996. During the 2001 elections, it skyrocketed to 196.

The evident disparity in the numbers of popular votes and the seats won shows that there are broader national issues for which people chose to put a particular political party to power at a given time. A study of the voting behaviour of our people also reveals that both the major parties do enjoy support at the grassroots level and have the capacity to stir the political pot when required. This 'balance of nuisance' is what they consider as their potent weapon while being irreconcilable and stubborn in reaching a consensus on major issues.

Another observable phenomenon is that, aside from the mass uprising in 1990 to oust the Ershad regime, the 1996 instability had a distinct dichotomy like the present one. We would have little to worry about had the polarisation of the past been harmless and non-violent. Our recent history tells us that the bureaucracy and the military too can partake in conducts unbecoming of such public institutions, as they did during the 1996 instability.

One also must not fail to factor in the economic condition of the nation with the prevailing socio-political instability. The economic snapshots clearly indicate that this is not the way an open economy must operate. The Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has plummeted to an alarming level recently (over 50 percent less than previous year) while the corporate climate is becoming increasingly hostile to the mores of a market economy.

Of the 127 registered companies at the DSE, share of 70 companies run below the face value. Another 25 companies have failed to hold AGM and declare profit. The CSE has little better to report about. In the bureaucracy, political considerations had served in deciding the fates of many in the last two promotions, creating further instability. The two leading foreign investors, US and Japan, have had serious concerns about the way we handle foreign investment matters, administratively and in principle.

Thus, given the choices we have before us, the nation is hard pressed not to cling onto this unpalatable status quo. If we allow the status quo to take its natural course, we face political extinction. If we don't, we have much more sacrifices to make. The only middle course is for the elected representatives of the people to decide what shall we choose and for what good reasons.

Author and columnist M. Shahidul Islam is a Senior Assistant Editor of this paper.