Beyond the failed 'road map' for mid-east peace

Yet the Palestinians under persuasion of Mahmud Abbas gave chance to the peace process by agreeing to an unilateral ceasefire, at the end of June last which brought about significant decline, if not absolute end of the Palestinian violence. But it could last barely seven weeks when on 19 August a Hamas suicide bomber blind himself up killing 22 Israelis on a bus in Jerusalem. The Palestinian impatience was understandable as the Israelis failed "to implement its commitment under the provision of road map."

During the ceasefire all that the Israelis did was to withdraw its tanks a few meters from Bethlehem, open a few roads in Gaza and remove five road blocks out of 220 in the West Bank. "It did little else to loosen the 'closure' that isolates each Palestinian village from its neighbour, leave one out of two Palestinians without a job and nearly two out of three in poverty." Israel also did not care to freeze the construction of the Jewish settlements; neither did it stop the construction of so-called 'security fence' swelling up large chunk of Palestinian farmland. In the meantime the targeted killings of the Palestinian leaders went on unabated as the Israelis were not the party to the truce. Under the circumstances it was absurd that the ceasefire could prolong.

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Now as Yasser Arafat has inevitably bounced back to the centre stage and Mahmud Abbas, the America's man-discredited and letdown by all quarters including the Americans and Israelis stepped down Yielding his place to a new incumbent, Ahmed Qowli -- an Arafat loyalist can the road map be put back on the track? There are few chances as the Israelis repeatedly made it clear that they should never negotiate peace either with Arafat or any dispensation enjoying his support. They have summarily rejected Arafat's offer for a fresh ceasefire which he put forward so that the peace process could be salvaged. But Israel views another Palestinian ceasefire as just another ruse to evade the Palestinian Authority's responsibility to take on the Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Stunned by the departure of Abbas, their man and cool to his successor, believed to be Arafat's man the Americans also feel the same way. Even though the EU is some what less prejudiced to Qowli, it too after declaring 'Hamas' a terrorist organisation recently places the onus on the PA and the new prime minister to act against the militants and act first. But the problem with Qowli is the same as it was with Abbas. Without some substantial return from Israeli side the Palestinian public opinion is unlikely to tolerate a vigorous move against the Islamists and the action will only spark a civil war.

After the suicide bombs in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv the mood in Israeli government circle is no more in favour of a fresh negotiation under road map. It is now ominously about the disposal of Arafat through expulsion, assassination or more stringent confinement. The killing of Arafat as one of the option has been chillingly expressed by none other than Israel's deputy prime minister. By all appearance the things are moving fast towards a fateful consequence. The Israeli security cabinet's mafia-like pronouncements, the veto to block Arafat's safety and Israel's track record in the past -- all combine to suggest that the Israelis may as well kill Arafat out of desperation. Only weeks before they made an attempt on the life of Sheikh Yassin, the spiritual leader of the Hamas. Their hatred of Arafat already borders on obsession and are likely to be tempted to eliminate him -- the only obstacle to peace!

Yes, Arafat is an obstacle to peace -- peace on Israeli term. Although he was accorded a red carpet in the White House alongside Late Yiztak Rabin in 1993 he started drawing the US' ire ever since he refused to comprise on Palestinians' vital interests in Camp David II in July 2000. The Americans followed a long meandering route to peace in search of a pliant Palestinian leader in place of an unbending Arafat least realising that no Palestinian leader other than Yasser Arafat can deliver peace in the Middle East. All intimidation, humiliation and threats meted out to him vindicate his position as the supreme leader of the resistance in Palestinian eye. More significantly, Arafat is only one who can act as a counterweight to the extremism of Palestinian militants. It is the bellicosity of Israel which has radicalised Arafat over the years leaving almost no moderate leader in Palestine with enough could to work for peace through a political process.

By turning a blind eye to the fundamentals of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict the sponsors of the peace process in the Middle East have failed to give it a fair chance of getting off the ground. The role of US at the apex of quartet sponsoring the road map has been anything but that of an honest broker. It is her acquiescence, if not abutment that made Israel's ruthless policy of pressing on with the colonization of more and more Palestinian land and its brutal reprisals in the name of punishing militancy possible.

There may shill be options left with America to deliver peace on Israel's term but that peace will prevail only when Israel and Palestinian turn into graveyard with more violence, blood letting and devastation. The collapse of the road map in bloods is the sad reminder of that looming reality.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.