Maoists' withdrawal from peace talks

Situation turns for the worseBut the newly appointed Prime Minister Thapa seems to be already in deep water after the major political parties of Nepal, which are already agitating against Thapa's appointment by the king as "unconstitutional", had now outright rejected his appeal to join hands with Mr. Thapa to put a united front against the Maoist rebels who had broken the cease-fire agreement with the government of Mr. Thapa. Many analysts think that Thapa, appointed by the king just three months ago, could face the fate of his two predecessors, namely, Sher Bahadur Deuda and Lokendra Bahadur Chand, after failing to make peace with both the Maoists and the political parties. Moreover, the new volatile situation had arisen when the political atmosphere had already been made cloudy and stormy, as the five out of six political parties, which were most vocal and powerful in the now-dissolved elected parliament of 205 Members, had been agitating against the dissolution of the parliament and take-over all power by the new king, whose entry into the Royal Palace after the killing of his brother King Birendra, still remains a mystery.

Rule of Rana DynastyIn this context, let us have a glance at the political history of the century-old rule of Rana Dynasty from 1846, preceding the absolute monarchy established by King Tribhuban (1960-1990). During the absolute authority during Rana Dynasty as well as the absolute monarchy period, it was an one-man show which ruled supreme and had played a key-role with the fate of the poorest of poor people of Nepal who were more like 'dumb-driven-cattle', living a sub-human wretched life under a serfdom. It must be admitted here that the Nepal Congress (NC), the oldest political party of Nepal, had played a very vital and constructive role in building up a strong pro-democracy movement from the grass-roots, which ultimately bed to the fall of century-old Rana Dynesty (1846-1951) whose hereditary Prime Ministers were no less ruthless than absolute monarchy, thus ending perhaps the blackest chapter of Nepal's history of feudalistic rule. Thus NC ushered in a new democratic regime in Nepal for the first time after over a century in 1951. But NC committed the greatest blunder, wittingly or unwillingly, by inviting king Tribhuban from India who was living there in self-exile since the 1940s, for which the NC had to pay a very high price.

Tap here to add The Daily Star as a trusted source

King Tribhuban's 'Road Map'After the general election held for the first time in 1951, NC was voted to power, under the new monarchy of king Tribhuban. But king Tribhuban had prepared his own 'road-map' to entrench himself as the absolute state authority and a centre of power in all socio-political affairs. In fact, he unhesitatingly bit the hand that had fed him, when he staged a 'coup' in 1960, dismissing the elected parliament, leaning political parties and arresting all political leaders, including the NC Chief Koirala. Thus the king imposed his personal rule, showing his ungratefulness to the political party that brought him back to the throne. And what happened to the people? They were now like out of the 'frying pan' (Rana Dynesty) into the 'fire' (the absolute monarchy)!

But there is no such thing as last word in politics. It took about 30 years for Nepal's oldest party, the National Congress.

to rally against the rule of King Tribhuban to bring it down, through a pro-democracy movement. This time the NC collaborated with its rival, United-Marxist-Leninist-Nepal Communist Party (UML-NCP), which led to the establishment of democracy under a constitution that made the king a constitutional head, rather an ornamental head. But it was again flawed, making the hazardous journey for Nepal's nascent democracy a bit longer, because the notorious 'rat' was smelling somewhere waiting for its opportunity. Perhaps it was looming larger without being noticed by others.

Royal Massacre: A Bolt from the BlueAnd the looming disaster came like another bolt from the blue, on June 1, 2001, with the tragic Royal Massacre at a Royal Dinner party, killing King Birendra, Queen Aishwarya, and seven other Royal family members, the massacre was allegedly committed by the heir-to-the-throne, Prince Dipendra who later shot himself dead, as if to wipe out all traces of evidence for the massacre. No raison-d'etre of this horrid massacre was left behind. But the massacre opened a new chapter with the entry into the Royal Palace of the late Slain King's younger brother, Gyanendra, which the people of Nepal accepted with much hesitation and suspicion. And as ill luck would have it, the new king started his journey on a wrong foot when, immediately on assumption of Royal responsibilities, he officially claimed that the killing was due to the "accidental" automatic weapons power, thus creating more suspicion among the people who rejected the king's statement as "unacceptable" and took to the street agitation against the new king which forced him to appoint an enquiry commission. The king, however, continues his rule over the country. The remarkable feature of his running the country is the dissolution of the Parliament and changing of ad-interim Prime Ministers one after the other, the latest appointment of Mr. Thapa being the third in the series, perhaps to show his sincere efforts to bring back stability and peace in Nepal. But the political parties have rejected as "unconstitutional" the appointment of Mr. Thapa and vowed to continue their agitation till their demands, including abolition of monarchy, are fulfiled.

CIA and RAW behind Royal Massacre?Meanwhile, the most powerful political organisation in Nepal, the Maoists who have been waging a so-celled 'people's war' to put an end to monarchy and establish a communist government there, had confounded the already confused situation, by alleging that the US Intelligence CIA and Indian Intelligence RAW conspired to kill King Birendra as he was 'soft' towards China and the Maoists and subsequently "installed their stooges" is the Royal Palace. Maoist leader Babu Ram Bhattarai, in an article published in Nepal's most popular daily Kantipur Daily, alleged that King Birendra was like 'dust' in the eyes of the "American imperialist and Indian colonialists."Perhaps to create a suspense about the mystery behind the Royal Massacre, a leading Nepal Congress leader and a former Prime Minister of Nepal, Girija Prasad Koirala had recently 'threatened to expose", what he said was "a grand design" behind the killing of King Birendra. He, however, promised "to expose everything at an opportune time," as he had told the Kathmanda Post is a recent interview, adding that he had been "keeping quiet over the issue fearing that it would trigger fresh unrest." Only time will show what disclosure Mr. Koirala makes "at an opportune time" and what repercussion it would have on the on-going political instability in Nepal.

However, the most vital question is: where lies the end of the current pernicious game of hide and seek between the Palace and the representatives of the people? Where is the meeting point? For the people of Nepal, the current situations has become a double-edge sword -- which cuts them both ways. They are literally hanging between the devil and the deep sea. Because with political instability comes economic instability that create chaos for the common man.

How to get out of the wood?To avoid a national catastrophe, the best way out would be to formally end monarchy or maintain a shadow of it, hold country-wide general elections, and allow the victorious party or parties including the Maoists, to form a national government, with a common economic and political front to put back Nepal's nascent, and now sinking, democracy on the right track. For this a clear understanding is necessary for a common goal among all democratic parties and the Maoists who literally control two-thirds of the rural areas of Nepal.

The two-member peace-dialogue, appointed by Prime Minister Mr. Thapa, to hold talks with the Maoists to end the insurgency and lawlessness in the country now seems to be in doldrum following the latest announcement by the Maoists. It would be a sad day for Nepal if things are pushed too far by the Maoists. There is still time for an amicable settlement about the most disturbing problems and restore the much-needed peace and stability in that tiny Himalayan state. Any wrong step at this critical juncture at the behest of some vested interests, at home or abroad, is bound to land the country in hell. It is time for the political parties that are keen to see democratic forces flourishing again in Nepal should be cautious enough to look before they leap, to rescue their nascent democracy from a deep quagmire or a traitorous quick-sand. The opportunists always wait in the aisle to jump in to 'fish/ in 'troubled waters.'

AMM Shahabuddin is a retired UN official.