Clark versus Dean scenario unfolding

Clark's entry does change everything. Prior to his entry into the race, the political story of the season had been the emergence as front-runner of Vermont governor Howard Dean. Dean had been the only Democratic candidate to capture the voters' imagination. He tapped strongly into the widespread anger against the president amongst the Democratic base and made opposition to President Bush the centrepiece of his campaign back when his rivals had been successfully cowed into more muted criticism by the administration's strenuous efforts to quash dissent. His early stand against going to war in Iraq appeared principled and consistent in comparison to the tortuous waffling of the other candidates and looks ever more prescient and insightful by the day. More than anything, Dean, who has been described as by far the most talented politician the Democrats have produced since Bill Clinton, was the only candidate who has shown anything like deftness and political skill on the campaign trail.

Before Clark, the race was already narrowing down to Dean versus Anyone-But-Dean. Early on in the campaign the Democratic Leadership Council, the centrist wing of the party, took the unusual stand of opposing Dean's candidacy. Since then, a significant number of other Democrats -- together with many neutral commentators and gleeful Republicans -- have opined that Dean's nomination would be a disaster for the Democrats. The argument goes that he is too angry and too anti-Bush to appeal to the moderate swing-voters who decide most elections. Kerry, Lieberman and Gephardt all have taken this position and their campaigns were clearly focused on defining themselves in opposition to Dean. So popular had Dean become, however, that his candidacy had already begun to suck the oxygen out of Lieberman and Gephardt's campaigns and John Kerry was left looking like the only plausible alternative to Dean.

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I believe that Clark's entry into the race means the effective end of both Lieberman and Gephardt's candidacies. They were already lagging behind Dean and Kerry, and with the public and the media's preference for simple story-lines will have difficulty continuing to attract funding, support and press coverage. The question is whether Kerry will survive the arrival of Clark. On paper, Clark seems to demolish the case for Kerry's candidacy. Kerry was running as the most plausible of the Anyone-But-Dean candidates -- positioning himself in opposition to Bush but with the credentials (decorated Vietnam veteran, Senate Foreign Relations Committee) to be a credible voice on national security and foreign policy. Clark seems to be occupying roughly the same ground except that his military service outranks Kerry's considerably and he has not spent the last nine months diminishing himself in the public's eyes every time he opens his mouth. Had he run a better race, Kerry would have been the ideal candidate and would have left no opening for Clark. However, the reason Kerry hasn't taken off is that he is being advised by the same team that bought us Al Gore's disastrous 2000 campaign and his every move on the campaign trail has been creakingly obvious and painfully timid. It is hard to see how Kerry articulates a reason for his candidacy that separates him from Clark and even harder to imagine that he possesses the political deftness to do so.

Which leaves Dean. The Anyone-But-Dean faction has got their wish -- a credible, electable alternative to Dean. But Dean remains popular and seems to have a better ear for the public mood than his critics. His vocal opposition to an increasingly unpopular president seems to have fairly durable appeal and even among those who oppose his positions he is respected as a Democrat who is willing to stand up for what he believes in -- the principal criticism leveled against his rivals for the nomination. His one vulnerability is that he is seen as weak on national security and has not articulated a foreign policy vision that appeals to voters. This is Clark's opening.

Dean's critics, however, have always underestimated his political dexterity and I think that it is a mistake to write Dean off on the national security and foreign policy issue. Already Dean has been tightening up his own policy proposals and, more importantly, he has the skill to convince people that he is for real. If he doesn't falter, Clark will make a formidable rival. But it remains to be seen how well he deals with the pressures and frustrations of the campaign trail and whether he has the fire in his belly for a bare-knuckle brawl. If Clark can stand the heat, the nomination is his to lose, but running for president all-out war. It'll make Kosovo seem like a holiday in comparison.