Crisis in Sri Lanka

The president has been under pressure from the US, China, India, UK and Japan since her November 4 decision to declare emergency and sack three key ministers to apply restraint. She seems to have responded to international concerns to some extent but not before empowering the military to conduct nationwide searches. This leaves one with an apprehension that she might exercise her constitutional power to dismiss the entire cabinet if a deal is not struck soon to smooth over differences that had bedeviled relations between herself and the prime minister.

Since the signing of a ceasefire in February 2002, international mediators have laboured hard to help resolve the conflict and to infuse some life into the devastated economy of the nation. The premier and his coalition government do enjoy a comfortable majority in the parliament, but the president is empowered by the constitution to sack the entire cabinet, if needed. The executive power of the president seems to have pushed the premier into the defensive although his popular standing and support from without remain pretty strong.

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Of the predictable scenarios, a compromise might be struck after the parliament reconvenes on November 19. Another probability is the president's further desperation coming into play if she finds herself pushed to the brink. She might resort to sacking the entire cabinet, call for a snap election and govern the nation with military's help during the interregnum. A third scenario might compress the president into consenting to the peace accord, but leave the military unhappy. Our best hope, however, lies in an expedited compromise between the estranged president and the premier. The crisis is not over until it is.