The stakes in the coming polls: A referendum on the BJP?

Going by numerous opinion polls, the Congress has a clear edge in Rajasthan, Delhi and Chhattisgarh; the Madhya Pradesh situation is fluid. Even the India Today-ORG-Marg poll, normally pro-BJP, concedes this. In MP, the vote difference between the Congress and BJP is less than 2 percentage points.

According to India Today, the Congress's tally in MP is likely to fall to 75-95 seats from 124 seats in 1998. The BJP's 115-135 seats (out of 230).

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However, this poll was conducted before Ms Mayawati decided not to field candidates against the Congress in 70 MP constituencies (and in 30, 35, 75 seats respectively in Delhi, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan), and to work against the BJP everywhere.

Besides BSP support and good rainfall, Mr Digvijay Singh's manoeuvring might help Congress. As will Ms Uma Bharati's negative, overly combative image.

The BJP is riven by greater factionalism in MP than the Congress. Ms Bharati cannot choose her candidates. Mr Singh has more freedom to choose his candidates astutely. He's so confident he says he won't hold any office for 10 years if loses!

Even assuming "anti-incumbency" works in the BJP's favour, a transfer of BSP votes could still rescue the Congress. But let's assume that the Congress loses MP. Where does that leave the BJP? Unless the BJP captures one more Hindi-speaking state, it won't be able to overcome the erosion of credibility and other setbacks it has recently suffered with the BSP splitting away in Uttar Pradesh.

The Congress is way ahead of the BJP in Delhi and Rajasthan. In Chhattisgarh, says India Today, 46 percent of people rate Mr Ajit Jogi's performance "good", 33 percent "average," and only 15 percent "poor". Fifty-three percent say they are "better off today than two years ago".

Mr Jogi is charged with forgery. But 75 percent of people say he's not guilty or they don't know. Conclusion: the BJP will find the going tough in Chhattisgarh--except that the V.C. Shukla-led Nationalist Congress could help it somewhat.

The BJP's overall campaign will feature not just Messrs Atal Behari Vajpayee and L.K. Advani, but (gulp!) Mr Narendra Modi, who will address 40 election meetings. The BJP seems set to project as its Chhattisgarh CM the former Rajput prince Dilip Singh Judev -- a bigot devoted to "re-converting" Adivasis to Hinduism.

Falling back upon extremists like Mr Judev/Modi speaks poorly of the BJP. The popular mood is overwhelmingly anti-extremist. Only 10 percent of BJP voters support it for its ideology.

All polls confirm Mr Vajpayee as the BJP's sole asset, with ratings much higher than the party's. Mixing Mr Modi with him, or getting the southern Rajasthan BJP taken over by fanatical Gujarat leaders, makes no sense. Gujarat BJP firebrands will control campaigning in 36 Rajasthan constituencies. That may produce violence, not votes!

If it loses three or all of the coming assembly elections, the BJP will explore two strategies: consolidate the NDA; and promote a New Third Front.

The BJP has already got the Samata Party and Janata Dal (United) to merge. But this won't help a majority of the JD (U)'s 18 MPs get re-elected. The merger's real function is to prevent defection to the Congress and Rashtriya Janata Dal.

In the 2004 assembly elections, BJP allies like the Indian National Lok Dal are almost certain to do badly. A big question-mark hangs over the Telugu Desam, which is fast running out of political tricks, and courting unpopularity.

So the BJP may try the New Third Front option. It seems to have "softened" up Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav, who refuses, despite temptations, to split the party's divided UP unit.

On September 25, Mr Yadav declared at Jamshedpur that he would have no objection to the BJP if it drops issues like the Ram temple, Article 370 and Uniform Civil Code. The BJP says it's prepared to keep them out of its programme "for the time being".

Equally important to the New Third Front would be the NCP and Ms Jayalalithaa's AIADMK. The SP, NCP and AIADMK won't like to be openly allied with the BJP. But if they together win 50 to 70 seats, they could have a veto over who forms the next government.

If neither the Congress nor the BJP gets close to 180 seats, the New Third Front could form a government with the BJP's support. Even if it doesn't last, such a government will keep the Congress out of power.

If the Congress wins three or all four Hindi-speaking assemblies, that will seriously affect the JD(U) in Bihar and the Biju Janata Dal (Mahapatra) in Orissa. This will silence Mr Sharad Pawar who has of late made noises about the "foreign origin" issue.

Even the BSP might reach an understanding with the Congress, as will the DMK (probably a winning combination in Tamil Nadu).

All this could enable the Congress to reach the 200 Lok Sabha seat mark and form the next government. Such a government would be likely supported by the Left, the RJD and Janata Dal (Secular), and possibly by some SP and NCP MPs too.

That will help break the spell of Hindutva, and politically unhinge the BJP. We must all work towards this outcome. India has already paid heavily for Hindutva's rise -- through corrosion of governance and subversion of democracy. We must roll back the Hindutva juggernaut by making all elections a referendum on the BJP.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.