Georgia after Sheverdnadze: What does the future portend?

That the nation with such a happy state of affairs should have degenerated to such an extent, both in terms of economic well-being and the over-all quality of life, is quite incomprehensible to many. To them, it was the classic case of how a popular leader turned into a veritable despot. Edouard Sheverdnadze, the founder president of the breakaway state of Georgia following the dismantling of the Soviet Union, was a typical example of an undisputed and glorified leader subsequently rejected totally by his own people for his follies committed over a period of time. The case of Georgia and Sheverdnadze once again proved the adage, power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Shevardnadze was, on the other hand, the successful foreign minister of the failed leader Gorbachev, who presided over the liquidation of the Soviet Union, the cradle of communism, as its last helmsman. Gorbachev's key reforms, Glasnost and Perestroika, brought about disaster to both Gorbachev and his communist regime. But Gorbachev had been highly successful in the conduct of foreign relations -- so much so that he was awarded, jointly with President Reagan, the Nobel Peace Prize. The credit is shared by Foreign Minister Sheverdnadze without whose skilled and successful negotiations with the Americans such an honor could not have been earned by Gorbachev. The Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the two leaders, obviously for the success of their joint endeavor in quest of international peace and security. But specifically, it was largely due to the their success in reaching an accord on dismantling the whole range of Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM) then deployed face to face by the Warsaw Pact and the NATO member countries. The accord removed the constant fear and the state of gross insecurity in which the European countries had lived for so long. I was privileged to be one of the few ambassadors chosen to witness the physical destruction of the first SRBM from the Soviet side in Volgograd.

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My major encounter with Sheverdnadze took place in Moscow in 1987 when a Soviet foreign minister received a Bangladeshi ambassador for the first time after the assassination of Sheikh Mujib in 1975. The relations between our two countries, to put it mildly, were highly strained during that period. Sheverdnadze decided to break with the policy of the past decade. He told me, "We will strive to develop our relations first to the level in 1975, and having achieved that, we will go forward to attain even better relations." He also invited our foreign minister to pay an official visit to the Soviet Union. That such an efficient and liberal leader would later turn into a despot of the highest order could never occur to anyone. The subsequent condemnation by his own people and erstwhile admirers manifested by waves of demonstrations in Tiblisi the capital of his native state for over two weeks proved it beyond anyone's doubt.

There was one issue on which Sheverdnadze could claim some credit. One must give the Devil his due. In the face of massive demonstrations against him and total seizure of the parliament and the presidency, he could have ordered force to suppress the uprising. But he refrained from doing so in order to avoid bloodshed, and accepted the verdict of the people. Evidently, the people's original demand of canceling a heavily rigged parliamentary election turned into a popular uprising, demanding the resignation of the president. The movement was prompted only by the latter's ignorance of the high degree of popular resentment against him and persistence of his will to cling to power. This happens to many other countries where leaders are surrounded by flatterers and make them insulated from the people, thereby rendering them ignorant of the reality. The resentment ultimately bursts out in the open with uncontrollable consequences.

With the closely guarded departure in strict secrecy of the president from the capital, the speaker, according to the Georgian constitution, started to act as president till the next election. Sheverdnadze not only left the country economically shattered, but also with an empty exchequer. The acting president later appealed to the Western donors and financial institutions for help. Russia, who has held all the CIS states as proteges, has been the leading nation for multi-dimensional support to Georgia. The Russian foreign minister, it was gathered, had given the final counsel to Sheverdnadze to hand over power peacefully without confrontation. In return, Sheverdnadze got a Russian plane for transporting him to a chosen sanctuary.

According to political observers, Russia will never give up her sphere of influence over Georgia and eyes the visit of the American Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfield to Tiblisi on December 6 suspiciously, despite his heavy preoccupations. Rumsfield advised the removal of Russian troops from Georgia. One may recall that during the Stalinist regime, Georgia once tried to secede from the Soviet Union only to be brought back to the status quo by brutal force. An international power game now appears to be in the offing in the backyard of the erstwhile super power. The Georgians must, therefore, steer themselves prudently through the uncertain future and adopt the policy which serves their interests best.

M.M.Rezaul Karim, a former Ambassador, is a member of BNP's Advisory Council.