Indo-Pak peace overtures: Little more than springtime flirtation

After it all began with Mr Vajpayee's bold offer of unconditional talks with Pakistan on 18 April last there is significant progress although made at a snail's pace. Among the proposals made and accepted are the decisions to enhance the level of diplomatic representation, the resumption of Lahore-Delhi bus service, the exchange of visits by Parliamentarians and businessmen and importantly the revival of traditional cricket ties between the two countries. On October 22 the Indian side came up with a package of 12 more proposals dubbed as confidence building measures (CBMs). The package included the start of Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service, travel by sea between Mumbai and Karachi, a resumption of rail-link across Sindth-Rajasthan border and the establishment of a 'visa camp' to simplify the visa procedure.

While accepting several of these proposals Pakistan's prime minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali -- in a bid to give further boost to the peace process -- decided to observe a unilateral ceasefire along the line of control in Kashmir duly reciprocated by India. In another gesture Jamali made some new proposals with regard to the issue of prisoners in each other's country and a Lahore-Amritsar bus service. In the meantime Vajpayee after breaking a spell of uncertainty stated to newsmen in Lucknow on 25 November that he intended to visit Islamabad to attend the SAARC summit. He expressed desire to meet 'everyone' there indicating that there might as well be his meeting with President Musharraf. The softening of the tone of Yashwant Sinha, India's hawkish foreign minister, is also noticeable. In a TV interview he said that there was a change in Pakistan's 'mindset'. President Mushrraf told the visiting American senators including the US former first lady Hilary Clinton that the current moves should mark the beginning of a genuine peace process.

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The time couldn't have been more conducive for seizing a peace initiative. Impressive as the developments are on both sides one notes with regret and surprise that they do not somehow lead up to composite and purposive dialogue covering the whole gamut of Indo-Pak relationship. Even when brought up to a point of maturity they fail to gel. So far they only amounted to springtime flirtation but no courtship. Both India and Pakistan went round and round the mulberry bush failing however to engage each other.

In his Srinagar speech on 18 April the Indian Prime Minister had offered to talk to Pakistan without any precondition. It meant that India wouldn't link the initiation of talk to Pakistan's alleged support to 'cross border terrorism' even if the issue could crop up during the talks. Yet Indian leaders continued to dither on the question of dialogue saying that the talk could not begin unless Islamabad stopped the infiltration the refrain of which was soon back in Indian circle. The magnanimity of Vajpayee's offer was soon lost in the image of conditionalities. The Pakistanis argued that no real progress towards normalisation of bilateral relation is indeed possible without the resolution of Kashmir dispute. To them the bus, train and ferry services are all peripheral issues. If the gains of the last six months are to be built upon the more substantive issue need to be addressed, they argued. But India's readiness to engage in a dialogue appears to be contingent upon Kashmir being put on the backburner while other issues are addressed.

Any optimism that India may soon agree to a composite dialogue or accept an expansion of the SAARC's mandate must therefore be tempered with realism based on well-known stands of India. However, as Pakistan will be hosting the summit early next year there may be informal exchanges between both the countries but scepticism abounds that such exchanges would lead them anywhere. Though Vajpayee is undoubtedly keen to go down in history as a peace maker he will be persuaded by BJP's extremist colleagues to maintain tough stand on Kashmir in a year that will be marked by India's general election.

There are some stirrings as a result of a statement made in Washington by KC Pant, a member of India's National Security Council. He stated that Kashmir issue could be solved and that New Delhi was willing to discuss it. Even though the statement seems to have been made for the consumption of American hosts this is a positive statement. Islamabad must earnestly examine his view to establish if there was a possible shift in India's stand on Kashmir. Unless there is a paradigm shift in the stances of both the countries over Kashmir, the groundwell of good wills demonstrated so far will soon dry up and it will continue to be the never never land of peace and harmony between the subcontinent's two nuclear rivals.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.