Sri Lankan peace process suffers further setbacks

Hopes had arisen that the president and the prime minister would settle their problems at least to an extent so that the peace process with the Tamil rebels could be resumed for larger interest of the country after both had agreed that the process must not be hampered. However, these hopes have been dashed as president and the prime minister remained stuck on the issue they considered crucial to maintain their ascendancy -- as to who would control the powerful military. Consequently, their differences remained basically unaltered even though were narrowed down on less important areas. The peace process brokered by Norway and backed by some foreign powerful nations like the United States and Japan had become uncertain when the mediators declined to continue their efforts unless the simmering differences within the government are resolved. Judging by latest indications, there is nothing to cheer about the Sri Lankan scene

as two powerful figures are showing more stubbornness than signs of accommodation on the vital matters. As a result, the fate of the govt.-rebel dialogue, which was assiduously built up in last more than a year, now sadly hangs in the balance.

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The president-prime minister struggle for more authority stems from the fact that they not only belong to rival political platforms but are also chief political opponents in a county where the power base seems to be revolving around these two persons for last few years. The situation has been further compounded by the fact that Sri Lanka has a strange constitution, which can neither be straightway described as presidential or parliamentary form of democracy. The government is run by the prime minister and cabinet having majority support in parliament while the presidency is not a ceremonial one as much as in other south Asian parliamentary democracy. Interestingly, the president has the power to sack the government and even the parliament despite that the prime minister effectively governs the country.

This somewhat contradictory power sharing arrangement did not pose much of a problem before when both came from same political party or alliance. But things got complicated as the rivals adorned the vital positions. Besides, they have different approach to the Tamil rebels as the president favours a relatively hard line while the premier a softer one. Chandrika says Ranil's government is giving too much of concessions to the militants but the latter defends his strategy saying he won the last parliamentary elections on a pro-peace stance. True, most Lankans not only want cessation of the hostilities with the rebels lasting for nearly two decades as the small but prospective country was bleeding to white with no sign of a victor or vanquished. The president possibly cannot reconcile a situation where her rivals succeed in making peace whereas her party prime minister failed before. She has, time and again, sought to discourage the reconciliation process by Ranil's government in various ways even though none possibly can afford to be seen as anti-peace.

The president unpredictably took a tough step when she sacked three key ministers including the one in charge of the defence when the prime minister was away to Washington on a visit. This triggered a crisis that posed to create serious political instability with the president enjoying enormous power and the prime minister commanding popular support. Things did not escalate too much as both agreed on the need to defuse the tensions as far as possible through talks by their representatives and even at their own level. Some progress notwithstanding, the stand off largely continues and there is little prospect of a substantial thaw unless the intransigence is reversed.

The peace process has been the major casualty of the president-premier tussle as Norway government emphatically said it would not be involved in the matter unless the problems within the government die down facilitating the effort. The Tamil Tigers too are caught in an awkward situation as to who they would negotiate -- the president or the prime minister! No doubt, the road to a permanent settlement of the vexed civil war issue in Sri Lanka is strewn with so many obstacles. But this is also no mean achievement that the cease fire is very much in force for a pretty long time and a conducive ground has been created for dialogue. Several rounds of talks that have taken place abroad have at least resulted in untying some of the Gordian knots like the Tamils, in a significant climb down, gave up the demand of an independent homeland and now want to remain content with certain powers to govern themselves. The government too responded positively by giving concessions, which the president opposes. However, permanent peace is still a long way. But much of the progress may now be neutralised if the stand off continues for too long robbing the nation of the opportunity of peace.

This has other dangerous prospects as well. Lull in the peace process is likely to create skepticism about the future of the government-Tamil rapprochement and the unfortunate fallout would be both sides taking fresh preparations for a likely resumption of the conflict in full fury pushing the good omens to the background. Things may go back to a "square one". Government spokesman G. L. Pieris has said that control of the military is important for the prime minister to continue the peace efforts. The president appears hell bent to keep it under her control. The divergent positions make things difficult. Furthermore, Tamil leader V. Prabhakaran may not hesitate to seize the squabbling within the government by taking a hard stance if the government 's authority becomes weak. The hard work done by contending parties may come to a naught if the peace process is not revived and for this better understanding in the " co-habitation" government is essential. President-Premier rivalry can cause incalculable damage to the nation . Measures that help peace should follow. After all, people of the country are overwhelmingly for stopping the bloodshed. The President needs to take the initiative to break the deadlock.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.