US troops to remain in Iraq for years

Senior Pentagon officials said Thursday they were confident that the Iraqis, once given political control, would agree US troops should stay. But some outside the government question whether that would hold true once an elected Iraqi government took over.

Anthony Cordesman, a close observer of the Iraq situation as a strategist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that if political control was turned over on July 1 to an Iraqi body that is not elected, it likely would align itself with US objectives and therefore welcome a continued US military presence. But once elections were held, the US role would be in doubt, he said.

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If the new Iraqi government decided it wanted American forces to leave, "We would certainly be obligated to leave, under international law," Cordesman said.

Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld's chief spokesman, Larry Di Rita, told reporters at the Pentagon that there is a "fairly confident belief" that most Iraqis accept the US view that American troops will be needed over the long haul to ensure a stable transition to democracy.

The basis for a continued US military presence under the authority of a transitional Iraqi government is "being developed," Di Rita said without elaborating.

"I think there's a fairly comfortable understanding that the coalition has a lot to offer with respect to continued security in Iraq," Di Rita said, and "that people in Iraq understand that (and) want the coalition to continue to be involved in security in some way."

Di Rita did not define the roles that US troops would play once the occupation ended. Other officials have said troops will be needed to guide the development of Iraqi internal security forces as well as build an Iraqi army that is capable of defending against external threats.

US troops also will be engaged in combat as long as the insurgency remains active.

The legal basis for US troops operating in any foreign country is normally spelled out in a legal arrangement called a status of forces agreement, which defines legal protections for US troops accused of crimes in that country. Without it, US troops in Iraq would be subject to local Iraqi law, once the US occupation authority is ended and a government is restored.

"That would be untenable," Cordesman said.

Reuters adds: UN Secretary General Kofi Annan is prepared to send his top adviser back to Baghdad to help form an interim government if Iraqi leaders cannot agree on a plan to assume power when the US-led occupation ends in June, UN officials said.

Annan on Thursday sided with the United States, saying elections in Iraq before the political transfer of power on June 30 were not feasible. He also said the date for restoring sovereignty that Washington wants "must be respected."

But he did not give any proposals for a caretaker government to take power in June, saying Iraqis should determine its shape before the world body steps in.

"We have absolutely no preferred options," Annan told reporters. "We need to have the Iraqis discuss it. They must take ownership, discuss it among themselves, and we will try and work with them to find a consensus."