Why did president Putin appoint an outsider as prime minister?

As the President wants to be back immediately in business, he does not want to waste time to form the new government after the election. Furthermore, before the election, he wanted his people to know who would be their Prime Minister.

President Putin is known to be a quiet and contemplative person and his past intelligence background with former KGB has given him a secretive nature of personality and as a result his motives are not easily understood or predicted by his close associates. He is physically a small man by Russian standard and does not say much but is quite quick in making decisions, quietly and firmly.

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After Putin became President, he gradually increased his firm grip on power and was determined to restore credibility of the authority of state. Russian Federation is the largest country in the world (nearly twice the size of the US) and comprises of twenty-one republics. It extends from the Baltic Sea in the west to the Pacific Ocean in the east, a distance of 10,000 kilometres. It shares borders with twelve countries.

Being a vast country, since the time of Tsars, it always had a highly centralised executive power and within four years of his Presidency, Putin has restored it. Putin believes that a diffusion of power in Russia may end up with anarchy that prevailed during the Yeltsin years. He reportedly believes in transforming his country to restore the old glory of the Soviet Union and is in favour of more aggressive interventions in state affairs.

The election raised no excitement among Russian people because every one knew its outcome. Leading Russian opposition figures of both left and right political persuasions decided not to contest the Presidential election after a huge pro-Putin majority in the parliamentary election. Many had criticised the result of the parliamentary election as being unfair because media was allegedly closed to air the views of opposition leaders before the election.

Political observers believed that President Putin had to provide some political surprises so as to get Russian people energised prior to the Presidential election. On 24 February, he suddenly dismissed the Prime Minister Kasyanov (Kasyanov belonged to Yeltsin's team) and the entire cabinet. Although such event had occurred during the rule of former Russian maverick President Boris Yeltsin who loved dismissing every now and then Prime Ministers and cabinets, people in Russia did not expect it from Putin.

Moscow radio station reportedly ran a competition -- offering prizes to anyone who could predict correctly of President Putin's choice of Prime Minister. The main suggestions swirled around two persons: Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov and Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.

Putin, although different in his personality from that of Yeltsin, played the same game of surprise on his colleagues and people by nominating after a six-day interval an "outsider" Mikhail Fradkov (53) as Prime Minister of Russia. Putin said on 1st March: "The decision was not easy. I needed some one who was highly professional, honest and experienced in various branches of government." Fradkov has been working as a Russian envoy to the European Union (EU), considered a low-profile job.

Moscow Times, however, criticised the appointment saying that instead of appointing a credible successor, Putin unveiled a 100 per cent compromise figure, convenient and controllable who did not represent any threat to the President and who could be easily dismissed.

Why did Putin select Fradkov? There are several reasons but four in particular deserve mention.

First, he wanted a very loyal bureaucrat as Prime Minister. Under Russia's constitution, the function of Prime Minister is primarily managerial, whose principal task is to follow the "word of Kremlin". Fradkov has always been a very hard working and experienced administrator. His experience in the present job as an envoy to the EU will be immensely useful to cementing Russia's relations with the EU in the coming years. It is speculated that Russia and EU will cooperate more closely in the years ahead and one day Russia may even become a member of the European Confederation. Then Europe could be a formidable entity, a counter-point to America, in global affairs.

Furthermore, America's unilateralist policy has marginalised Russia's influence globally, even in its backyard (Central Asian Republics). Putin appears to be uncomfortable at America's military presence in the Caucasus region and has been gradually increasingly Russia's hold in areas of its sphere of influence. For example, Russia has not withdrawn its bases from Georgia, earlier promised and established a base in Kirghizstan, almost near an American base.

Second, domestic politics played a significant part in the selection of Prime Minister. There are at present two groups that reportedly dominate in the Kremlin. One is the Petersburg group and the other, Yeltsin-era officials. Putin comes of Petersburg and some officials working with him in Petersburg followed him to the Kremlin. Putin wanted to demonstrate to both groups that he wanted a new person who did not belong to either of the groups, thereby giving them a strong message of the flavour of his new future administration. Both groups now cannot accuse Putin of showing his favour to one of the group's candidate as Prime Minister.

Third, Fradkov was the head of the tax police and fought tax evasion and corruption in Russia. This appointment gives a signal that corruption including tax evasion in corporate Russia will not be tolerated and Russia's rich individuals who had a comfortable time during Yeltsin's period will be held accountable. Already Putin put behind bars a few corporate personnel for alleged fraud or tax evasion ( for example, former chairman of YUKUS, one of the world's largest non-state oil companies, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Russia's richest man, has been in jail).

Observers believe that Putin has made an example of Khodorkovsky to the business tycoons in Russia indicating bluntly that they would meet the same fate if they would evade tax or involve in corporate fraud. After the arrest of Khodorkovsky, Russia's prosecutor office reportedly delivered a message to the business community: "Let those who are still at liberty think hard about what they are doing". Observers however believe that Kremlin's wrath fell on Khodorkovsky because he had eyes on the Presidency in 2008 and funded a few opposition political parties in Russia. It is believed that after the arrest of YUKUS chief, business tycoons are now paying homage to the Kremlin as there is a saying in Russia : "Never say that you will never go to jail or end up begging on the streets."

In the above context, Fradkov with his past background as head of the tax police is ideally suited to fight against corporate fraud and corruption. In that way he will be able to trim power of Russian oligarchs ( a group of people who overnight became billionaires by acquiring in the 1990s state companies for a song). Fradkov fits in with this policy.

Fourth, Fradkov is known to have a moderate and liberal view on diversification of economy and will be an acceptable figure for investors. Russia under Putin's rule has boosted remarkably its economic strength. Russia desperately needs foreign investors to exploit its vast natural resources including its oil and gas. (One of the reasons why Russia is not ratifying the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on environment). Fradkov, with no particular political ideology, is basically a technocrat and will play a quiet "second fiddle" to an increasingly powerful President.

Conclusion: Russia under the Presidency of Vladimir Putin's second term is likely to be more assertive both in domestic and global affairs. Domestically, it will ensure that the Kremlin is the boss and oligarchs duly acknowledge it. Globally, in post-September 11 world, Russia is likely to be distancing itself from America and will map out its own geographic setting and strength in the context of global and regional stability. It wants to have the ability to curb increasing "imperial power" of the US. ( US has established military bases in more than 100 countries around the world).

The post-September 11 world has been creating new prisms through which Russia views international relations. Economic strength of Russia will be a major factor in building its strategic policies and President Putin needs a Prime Minister who will be a loyal and good manager with an exposure to EU and Fradkov appears perfectly to suit the bill

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.