Focus on Muslim voters

Indian election officials check Electronic Voting Machines (EVM) in Srinagar yesterday on the eve of the third of five phases of the world's largest election. The computer keyboard-style boxes are "tamper proof," averting chronic complaints of ballot-stuffing by feuding parties in previous elections and are to save an estimated 10,000 tonnes of ballot paper. PHOTO: AFP

Voting will take place in 11 states where there are large Muslim populations whose votes could decide the outcome, either by allowing ruling Hindu nationalists to make new inroads or staying loyal to the Congress and regional parties.

"This phase is the real election," political analyst Yashwant Deshmukh said.

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The states voting Monday include large swathes of Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state and politically pivotal for Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition Congress.

Political wisdom holds that whichever party wins the Hindi heartland state of Uttar Pradesh, which sends 80 legislators to the 545-seat parliament, forms the government in New Delhi.

Also in the frame in this polling round are western Maharashtra state, eastern Bihar and Assam states, and southern Karnataka.

For the past few weeks Indian politicians -- including those from the BJP which long had the tag of being anti-Muslim -- have been unabashedly wooing the Muslim vote.

India's estimated 140 million Muslims, who make up 13 percent of the total population of over one billion, have traditionally voted for the Congress and recently for the Samajwadi Party, a socialist regional party in power in Uttar Pradesh.

Now the BJP is seeking to cut into the Congress' Muslim support base, downplaying the revivalist Hindu platform on which it rode to political centre-stage in the late 1980s and seeking to position itself as a party of the mainstream -- reaching out to Hindus and Muslims alike.

As part of the exercise, Vajpayee told an election rally earlier this week Hindus and Muslims must come together.

"I've been striving for years so Hindus and Muslims in the country live together, foster brotherhood, help each other and make each other secure so together they could take the country forward," Vajpayee said.

He also talked about India's efforts to improve relations with Pakistan, showcasing this as a sign of the BJP's efforts to create religious harmony.

The BJP's push for Muslim votes represents an image makeover for the party that is basing its campaign on India's booming economy and peace moves with Pakistan.

Just two years ago, human rights groups and the opposition accused it of turning a blind eye to religious riots in western Gujarat state in which at least 2,000 people, mostly Muslims, were killed -- charges it denied.

At Thursday's rally Vajpayee said, "Let us resolve not to allow another Gujarat to happen anywhere else."

In the 1999 election, the BJP paid little attention to getting Muslim voters on its side. Now however its leaders are realising they cannot afford to bypass Muslim voters, analysts and the media say.

"Like it or not you can't ignore every seventh voter in the country," said the Times of India in a front-page article, referring to what it called the "great scramble" for Muslim votes.

Sonia Gandhi, the Italian-born leader of the Congress party which has portrayed itself as the champions of India's secular character, has branded the BJP's about-face a cynical political move.

Among the states going to polls Monday, the Muslim population is 28.5 percent in Assam, 22 percent in West Bengal, 16 percent in Uttar Pradesh and 15 percent in Bihar.

"In this phase, Uttar Pradesh comes into the picture. Also in most seats, the Muslim voters would be casting their votes. All the parties are vying for their votes. So in a way, this will be a 'make or break' day of polling," said Deshmukh.