Who will be the king-makers?

Indian Prime Minister and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Atal Behari Vajpayee (3-L) arrives at a polling station in Lucknow, yesterday to cast his vote. Balloting in the penultimate round of the five-stage election took place at some 108,600 polling stations. PHOTO: AFP

The CPI(M)-led Left Front and some regional outfits like Mulayam Singh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party, National Conference headed by Omar Abdullah, Indian National Lok Dal spearheaded by Haryana Chief Minister Om Prakash Chautala are toying with the idea of a non-BJP and non-Congress government.

Analysts say this is more of a political strategy than serious thinking because the Left parties, which is the biggest component of the Third Front with highest number of parliamentary seats, are direct rivals of Congress in West Bengal and Kerala where any talk of propping up a Congress-led government at the Centre would be politically unwise.

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The same is the case with National Conference, main opposition in Jammu and Kashmir, Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana and Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh for whom Congress is one of their main political opponents in their respective states.

In fact, the Left parties, particularly CPI(M) which is the main opposition in Congress-ruled southern state of Kerala, are peeved at nonagenarian Marxist leader Jyoti Basu's reported statement that his party would back a Congress-led government at the Centre.

Quickly seizing Basu's remark, Kerala Chief Minister and senior Congress leader A K Antony said CPI(M) should withdraw from contest against Congress in all the 20 seats in the state to facilitate a Congress-led government at the Centre to keep out BJP.

The top CPI(M) leadership has been at pains to suggest that Basu did not support a Congress-led government. But there seems to be something more than meets the eye, say analysts.

In 1996, the CPI(M) had decided against joining a Third Front dispensation under the banner of United Front government depriving what many consider a golden opportunity for Basu to become the Prime Minister. Later, Basu himself had termed his party's decision not to join the United Front government has a "historic blunder."

The decision at that time had been viewed as a triumph of hardliners in the party.

Eight years down the line, is the CPI(M) now positioning itself to rectify a little the "historic blunder and participate for the first time in an Indian government if not lead it?

The party's central committee meets here a couple of days after the results of parliamentary elections are announced on May 13 when it may deliberate on the issue of its maiden participation in the federal government, depending on the nature of electoral verdict, say CPI(M) sources.

The CPI(M) has certainly moved away from its theory of "equi-distance" from Congress and BJP and also discarded its ideological plank of not joining the federal government in a capitalist set-up, analysts say.

The change in the party's program and tactical line was brought about in its plenum held in Kerala in 1999 when CPI(M) amended its line to justify joining the federal government.

But this in itself does not ensure that the party will take part in a federal set-up. Much will depend on the numerical strength of a non-BJP coalition and it contour, they say.