Afghanistan revisited

There are curiosities also about the country's state of peace and stability. Could order be restored in strife-torn Afghanistan and subsistence ensured for its hapless people after decades of drought, famine and war? Or the country slided further backward to be in perpetual lurch amidst continuing disorder? As the sharp swift war on terror against Afghanistan came to a close, Tony Blair said in November, 2001 that in rebuilding their country, the people of Afghanistan would receive full support of the coalition. "We must give you all help and support that you need" he said "and that support will be forthcoming." But in the maze of international politics Afghanistan remains today largely a forgotten country.

However, the Afghans have done their bit in setting up an interim government and holding a Loya Jirga or grand council to set up a legitimate administration. They have drafted a constitution and are preparing to hold a democratic presidential and parliamentary election. The western powers making mealy mouthed promises did not however fulfil their commitment. Disorder and violence still stalk the land -- particularly in Southern and Eastern Afghanistan. More than 800 people have been killed in past year in a wave of violence unleashed by the remnants of Taliban. They have vowed to disrupt October election and carried out a string of attacks killing civilians, government employees and election workers. Recently there was an explosion in the city of Herat killing five people and wounding 34. The governor of Herat, Ismail Khan is a warlord and has his own militiamen.

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Efforts of the central government to disarm rogue private army have not so far been successful. Disarming of thousands of irregular fighters under the command of regional warlords is the key to Afghanistan's stability. President Hamid Karzai told the New York Times that Afghanistan's private militia was a greater threat to the country than the Islamic militants of Taliban variety. According to him only 10,000 of estimated 50,000 militias could be demobilised after the Taliban's fall and that's why the parliamentary election had to be postponed till April.

It is true that there are about 20,000 coalition troops, mostly Americans, in Afghanistan but they are mainly to hunt down Osama bin Laden and other remnants of al-Qaida. American forces, during their operations, are also resorting to search and destruction mission and revenge killing further alienating the civilian population. Violation of human rights by the American troops has been documented and indicted by the Human Rights Watch in its report.

The task of providing basic internal security has been given to International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) comprising troops provided by NATO powers. But their number is totally inadequate. They have a total strength of 6,500 men and they are mainly based in Kabul. In consequence, the Afghan capital is safe but not the rest of the country. Warlords and drug barons rule most of the country and any one who opposes them is threatened with death.

NATO's European peacekeepers promised to restore peace in the country ahead of election but have so far singularly failed to do so. Terrorist violence sweeps the land. A number of workers of different aid agencies as well as election workers have been killed resulting in delay in holding the election. That precisely fulfils the plans of the Taliban. ISAF has recently decided to post regional garrisons known as Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) throughout northern and western Afghanistan on the eve of the election. American-led coalition forces will perform policing in the more volatile South and East Afghanistan. In the meantime NATO is divided on the issue of more troops for Afghanistan. It's an indication that President Karzai is being asked to fend for itself -- something he is not capable of.

Most of the NATO members are dragging their feet and avoiding dispatch of more troops. To make things worse for Karzai the Taliban are bent upon disrupting the election process. Any delay in holding presidential and parliamentary election would mark victory for them. There is also popular apprehension that the Americans might at some point cut their losses and seek an exist strategy. The Taliban estimate -- and rightly -- that time is in their favour.

Given the situation unfolding, peace and stability still remains elusive in Afghanistan and the evolving realities are just part of never ending cycle of violence in Afghanistan. The American euphoria of establishing sway over the strategic corridor of Hindukush mountains may prove premature as their scripted plans in their global war on terror seem to be going haywire.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.