No Indo-Pak breakthrough but there is hope yet

Beyond agreeing to extend the 10 month-long border ceasefire, grant each other's citizens tourist visas, and hold more discussions on confidence-building measures (CBMs), the two Foreign Ministers had little to show.

They did some plain speaking at their joint press conference, with Pakistan sticking to the "centrality" of the Kashmir issue, and India stressing "cross-border terrorism." Why, some people even saw this conference as "a war of words"!

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Such a pessimistic assessment is unwarranted. Given both the immediate backdrop to the Ministers' talks, and the "structural" nature of many India-Pakistan differences, no dramatic breakthrough could be expected in one round.

But the absence of rancour at the outcome and the "good chemistry" between Pakistani and Indian leaders means that the dialogue will continue at a higher level of mutual confidence -- provided their leaders invest energies in it and ensure the climate of goodwill isn't vitiated.

Today, it's reasonable to expect progress on trade relations, transportation links between Rajasthan and Sindh, easier visa regimes and people-to-people contacts. The two sides will meet on the very worthy proposal for a bus service between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar.

At the end of the day, a roadmap has emerged. This spells sustained continuation of the dialogue. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Musharraf will meet later this month in New York. Officials will meet in October-November to discuss transportation links, narcotics control, and communications between border forces. They will jointly survey Sir Creek.

The two Foreign Secretaries will meet in December. And there will be another meeting between Dr Singh and Gen Musharraf during the January SAARC summit.

The latest round began amidst discordant noises and allegations of "cross-border" infiltration. National Security Advisor J.N. Dixit said India-Pakistan relations are "held hostage" by differences over Kashmir: Pakistanis are so Kashmir-obsessed that if you ask them even for a glass of water, they will demand "you first solve the Kashmir problem."

This remark drew a strong riposte from Mr Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri. "Kashmiris are not holding India and Pakistan hostage. By denying them their rights, we have kept their future in limbo, and ours in a state of perpetual tension." This drew an accusation from India of Pakistan's "unifocal" concerns.

Yet, the talks took place in a "cordial, friendly" and "affable" atmosphere. This speaks of a commitment on both sides to carrying forward the dialogue, rather than engage in knee-jerk responses and dissipate the positive momentum -- an all-too-familiar pattern.

Now India and Pakistan must quickly seal an energy cooperation deal, as discussed by Mr Kasuri and Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar. Pakistan imports half its annual petroleum requirements (18 million tonnes), mainly from the Gulf. India could easily sell it 1.5 million tonnes of diesel at a lower cost.

The Indian pipeline from Panipat to Jalandhar could be usefully extended to Lahore. If Pakistan needs more diesel, another pipeline can be laid from Jamnagar in Gujarat. India could also transfer expertise on using natural gas in public buses.

India has now come to recognise the viability of an overland gas pipeline from Iran through Pakistan. This will be about 10 times cheaper than an underwater pipeline. But won't Pakistan turn off the gas in a tense period?

These concerns can be addressed through contracts (providing for penalties for turning off supply and allowing international arbitration in disputes). Such a pipeline seems technologically sound. Pakistan stands to gain $700-800 million as transit fees.

The pipeline could lay the basis for larger-scale gas transportation from Turkmenistan over Afghanistan-Pakistan and open new Indian vistas in hydrocarbon-rich Central Asia -- subject to energy conservation. Its very negotiation will have demonstrated the potential for India-Pakistan economic cooperation. That could produce new CBMs and create trust.

Yet, India-Pakistan differences over Kashmir won't be easy to resolve. This is a tangled issue, on which both countries centre their definitions of nationhood.

How far can Pakistan and India depart from stated positions? Pakistan can afford to be relatively flexible. It would like the whole of Jammu and Kashmir. But, at minimum, it might accept a loose federal arrangement for Kashmir.

This must be explored without coercion by jehadi militants. Pakistan must also stop pushing Kashmiri leaders like Messrs Omar Farooq, Yasin Malik, and Shabbir Shah to accept the hawkish Syed Ali Shah Geelani's tutelage of the Hurriyat.

India, for its part, must confront the reality of alienation of the Kashmiri people. As the status quo power, it's tempting for India to skirt Kashmir while trying to improve relations with Pakistan. But it must rise above this and think of alternative arrangements.

Can it propose something that averts a division of Kashmir through the conversion of the LoC into an international border, but which still satisfies Pakistan, and more vitally, the Kashmiri people?

Kashmir's division will be opposed by people on both sides of the LoC. Besides, it will create a perennially unhappy neighbour. On the other hand, 58 years after Partition, Pakistan's religion-based claim to Kashmir sounds untenable. Yet, Kashmir has a pro-Pakistan constituency.

Reconciling all these considerations will need some creative proposals. These should be circulated in civil society and negotiated after they have received inputs, especially from Kashmiris.

An arrangement could be considered in which both India and Pakistan grant their respective parts of Kashmir exceptional autonomy, and create a "soft" border across which progressively freer movement is allowed. Security and autonomy of both zones must be guaranteed by the two states.

Such ideas sound idealistic. But they were actually discussed 40 years ago. Proposed by Sheikh Abdullah, and elaborated during a 1964 trip to Pakistan, they had Nehru's support.

We need to think "out of the box" on Kashmir. We must pursue the dialogue in good faith. Failure could be fatal.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.