Will Siachen become a 'no-war zone'?

results. Given the complexities involved in their bilateral ties, hopes for much progress in the form of resolution of the main problem should be a matter of height of folly. As such, whatever forward movements were achieved in Manmohan-Musharraf talks can be described as useful progress since it will further help create better understanding among two traditionally hostile south Asian neighbours and conditions are also increasingly discernible to address the core issues.

Cynics may argue that this is another exercise of "so-called" confidence building measures (CBM's) between the two countries. Conversely, some people might have placed too much expectations on the New York talks of the two leaders. Both quarters must try to understand the dynamics of the Indo-Pak contentious ties which by themselves cannot offer anything very substantial in quick time and by the same token progress -- even if scant -- cannot be seen as futile exercise. Those who expected a lot -- albeit unrealistically -- between India and Pakistan in the foreign ministers level talks in New Delhi some time ago were frustrated as their hopes had been belied. Consequently, they sought to describe the much awaited talks between Indian external affairs minister K. Natwar Singh and his Pakistani counterpart Kurshid Mahmud Kasuri as a "failure". These quarters kept a close watch on the talks between the heads of the government of India and Pakistan late last month during United Nations General Assembly session (UNGA).It is possible that they pinned high hopes and are not upbeat on the Dr. Manmohan Singh-General Pervez Musharraf dialogue. Such aspirations may have once again been dashed because of the inflated nature of the expectations.

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Indo-Pak talks at any level -- no matter the scale of the summit -- are constrained by colossal limitations. The New York talks were no exception. No government in either country can on its own take the task of making the dialogue a success since it has to take the entire nation along with it as too much of emotive issues are involved .Prudence and rationale assessment clearly suggest that any success in the talks between the two traditionally hostile neighbours can come through a long drawn process that has to proceed through a general ambience of goodwill devoid of mistrust and belligerence which generally characterise the bilateral ties. The Manmohan-Musharraf dialogue has certainly taken the complex bilateral relations a step further towards their improvement.

Apart from pledges to further boost cooperation in different areas like trade and commerce, culture and no less important sports like cricket and hockey which are passions in South Asia and more particularly for India and Pakistan who have excelled in both the games on a global scale, the core issue "Kashmir" is also being addressed. This main bone of contention is no longer kept out of the purview of discussions despite the fact that two sides generally hold diametrically opposite positions on this thorny dispute. Indications are clear from the Manmohan-Musharraf talks that both sides are showing flexibility on "Kashmir" with a view to addressing it even though reaching a common ground for its settlement is indeed a difficult task.

Islamabad's position that progress on other issues is somewhat impossible without taking up the Kashmir tangle and New Delhi's perception that it cannot come under talks being an "integral part" of India need to be changed should they want any meaningful advancement in their bilateral ties. The New York dialogue has demonstrated the will from both sides that they are not unwilling to shift from the hitherto adopted positions. This by itself is a remarkable progress no matter how the cynics analyse the discussions. It is clear that two sides are discussing a variety of issues directly or peripherally linked with Kashmir situation and one of them is the possibility of India withdrawing its troops from Siachen glacier, the highest battlefield in the world and Pakistan making a pledge not to try to capture it when Indians withdraw from there. This may eventually lead to turning the Siachen a "no-war zone" which if finally occurs could be a great leap forward to reduce tensions.

As a result of the summit level talks, a meeting of the chiefs of the army of the two countries is on the card and their defence secretaries are also likely to meet again. They met some time ago in the Indian capital after long seven years. All these are positive signals to address the Kashmir problem. The outcome of the Manmohan-Musharraf talks received a further impetus when Sonia Gandhi, chief of both Congress and ruling Congress-led United progressive alliance (UPA) during a visit to Kashmir region welcomed the outcome of the New York dialogue and said this healthy process to resolve the Kashmir problem will continue.

The talks between the two heads of government were not exactly a "summit" as such because they met in a third country where they were present for multilateral purposes. However, bilateral meetings even on such occasions at times produce high results and there is no dearth of such instances in international diplomacy. But the current state of Indo-Pak relations is "normal" which does not warrant any "breakthrough" or for that matter any spectacular achievement. In fact, when president Musharraf and former Indian prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee were in Kathmandu and shared the same dais for the SAARC summit even though they did not have any bilateral meeting, the occasion helped tremendously to improve New Delhi-Islamabad ties, which were then on the brink of total collapse owing to severe tensions.

Manmohan-Musharraf meeting in New York has produced results on the expected lines since a conducive ground for success of the discussions was being created at various levels of talks including one between Indian national security adviser J. N. Dixit and Pakistan president's political secretary Tareq Aziz. As such it had more to offer than setbacks since they were already on a path of reconciliation. If the current tone and spirit of the bilateral ties can be maintained, hopefully two sides will move further while no inflated hopes for an Indo-Pak relationship totally devoid of enmity and unfriendliness should be nurtured. The modest gains should be construed as substantial in the given circumstances especially taking into account the long hostility and sensitiveness attached to the main dispute Kashmir.

As it happened to be the first summit level talks since the new UPA government took over in India a few months ago, many eyes were fixed on how this new government in South Bloc views ties with Pakistan compared to the previous NDA authority of Vajpayee.

Most part of NDA government's time saw belligerence with Pakistan although last few months witnessed New Delhi's initiative to normalise the relations. The UPA government inherited a good environment and several meetings including that on nuclear-related matters between two countries in the last few months were not fruitless. The absence of any rancour in the parleys and the pledge to carry forward the discussion itself is a positive sign.

Indian contention of cross-border insurgency aided by Pakistan and Islamabad's assertion that talks must revolve around the wishes of the Kashmiri people and alleged human rights abuses by New Delhi are unlikely to find a common ground easily. But the yawning gap can be narrowed down and the Manmohan-Musharraf talks were definitely meaningful in that direction.

The positive signals need to be consolidated in the quest for lasting peace by eventually settling the main issue in a spirit of accommodation. Manmohan-Musharraf meeting has delivered reasonable degree of gains that will help further create a conducive atmosphere not only between the two principal players of the area but in the region as a whole. There is no denying that multi-faceted cooperative developments in the South Asia have been a hostage to Indo-Pak adversarial relations. Sooner this nature of their ties is changed for improvement, better is the political climate for the entire region and in the process the beneficial ventures will receive stimulation. It is expected that the recent Indo-Pak summit level talks mutates in substantive progress at bilateral level that automatically will have a sobering effect on the region.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist