The best is yet to be

In response, the Finance Minster was reported to have said that the government had taken a good number of steps to ensure rule of law and to improve law and order and further that such things could not be changed overnight. What has been left unsaid is that it is not a question of overnight but more than a thousand days including nights. It is an irony of fact that the critical observations of Andrew Natsios come at a time when the four-party alliance government has just celebrated its more than a thousand days in power through a public meeting.

About the commitment of all ministers and the parliament as a whole asked for by Andrew, it can be said that such commitments have been given during the past three years or more as part of the conditions of the donors' pledge for development assistance. The situation has not shown much signs for improvement in governance including the slide in law and order.

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Many election pledges fulfilled!
Andrew's observations come in sharp contrast to what has been claimed by a four-party alliance leader. It has been claimed that many election pledges have been fulfilled by the alliance government. Yet in even more sharp contrast than the above is the headline of a Bengali daily. It said that the main election pledges were not fulfilled even in three years (Prothom Alo, October 10, 2004). The published news referred to the fact that the election manifesto of BNP contained more than one hundred pledges centering on as many as 32 subjects. One of these pledges related to the commitment for improving law and order including containing illegal extortion of money in a way that will ensure peaceful life for the citizens across the country.

Further contrast
Another Bengali daily's red-lettered banner headline comes in sharp contrast contradicting the claims made or the best efforts made by the alliance government. The headline reads "Businessmen are the victims of illegal extortion of money and the buyers are the targets of snatchers" (Sangbad, October 10, 2004). The subtitle of the news contained the appeal by the business community to the State Minister for Home Affairs "Please save us".

The views of small entrepreneurs
It was reported that the shopkeepers of different markets of Dhaka city met the State Minister in the conference room of the Home Ministry on October 9, 2004. Representatives of a cross-section of shop owners attended the meeting as did the senior police officers. The small business community leaders gave a graphic account of illegal extortion of money from them by criminals who, it was alleged, commit such crimes even in the view of the policemen on duty or at markets which are situated close to police stations. The business leaders also had made it known to the State Minister that on many occasions the visitors to the market fell victims to criminals who snatched all that were bought by such visitors. Further, allegations were also made that the situation had come to such a pass that sometimes the buyers expressed doubts about the complicity of the sellers with the criminals.

Evidence from independent research
The highly adverse effect of corruption and deteriorating law and order situation has been subjected to research by independent think tanks like Bangladesh Enterprise Institute (BEI) and the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) not to speak of Transparency International, Bangladesh (TIB) and the lead donor like the World Bank (WB). BEI published its findings in January 2004. The study is titled "Reducing the Cost of Business in Bangladesh". The conclusion drawn by the study is that compared to China, India and Pakistan, the cost of doing business in Bangladesh today is considerably higher. Among others, the judicial system and law enforcement have been cited as major factors that add to high cost in doing business.

Findings from CPD
CPD conducted a study titled "Business Competitiveness Environment in Bangladesh, 2004". The survey covered 100 companies each having total assets of not less than Tk. 100 million. The major findings of the survey as these relate to the state of governance tend to provide a rather gloomy picture. First, the faith in independence of judiciary has been eroded further in 2004. More than three-fourths of the companies or 78.6 percent underscored that judiciary is not independent from political influence of members of government, citizens or firms.

Second, the incidence of crime, violence and organised crime impose significant costs on business. Police services cannot be relied upon for protection of business from criminals. This has been reported by as high as 93.9 percent of the companies surveyed.

Third, the magnitude of undocumented payments has grown in the area of awarding of public contracts. This was reported by 93.5 percent of the companies under the survey.

Fourth, the lead determining factors of business competitiveness environment have been identified to be 14 in number. Among these, corruption leads the list of factors, inefficient government bureaucracy ranks second and crime and theft ranks third. Last year, crime and theft ranked sixth. Crime and theft is affecting business more than it did in 2003.

The case of small business
The plight of the small enterprises has been subjected to much less research than the relatively big ones. In fact, very little or no research relating to the cost of doing business is available in this area. What the small business leaders told the State Minister for Home Affairs remains a matter of concern. The added dimension of the problem is the plight of the buyers as well.

Overall, the climate of investment as well as small business remains highly adverse for the business community. This is sure to have its negative impact on the economy. Bangladesh economy is exposed to double jeopardy. First are the natural calamities that visit Bangladesh not too infrequently. Second are the man-made calamities in the form of a high incidence of illegal extortion of money from the business community as well as from citizens. The cost of natural calamities are always assessed to get external assistance. The costs of doing business, except for the big ones, are hardly assessed. The major cost in this regard is the abject failure in the prevention and detection of crimes by public sector agencies. Worse still, there is widespread public perception that the law-enforcing machinery is utterly incapable and corrupt.

The government, in a desperate bid to check the continuing upswing in organised crimes, has established elite forces like RAB, Cheetah and what have you. RAB has done some good work in apprehending some notorious and dangerous criminals who later died in 'encounter'. This has been widely critised by the media. The issue of protecting small and big business concerns continues to remain a live problem that is adding to the cost of doing business as well as ensuring human security. At the end of the day, the citizens are victims of high price and insecurity. This is the message that the small business leaders appear to have attempted to give to the State Minister for Home Affairs. Despite the government doing its best, the best is yet to be seen. At the other end, Andrew seems to have attempted to drive home the message that widespread sense of insecurity coupled with the absence of rule of law pose a threat to democracy.

It remains to be seen if within the course of next two years in office, the alliance government will be able to solve the problems raised by Andrew, the independent think tanks, the media and the small business leaders. At this point of time, one can only say that the best is yet to be.

A M M Shawkat Ali, PhD is an ex-Secretary, Ministry of Agriculture.