Reduction of flood related damages

Gauge-reading and velocity measurements (through which the highest and lowest discharge levels can be measured) have been in place in Bangladesh for about thirty years, but flood records have been maintained with some degree of accuracy for more than one hundred thirty years. Statistics in the archives indicate that severe flooding has been taking place in this region for more than one hundred years. Hydrologists, in this context recall the big floods of 1885, 1892, 1900, 1918, 1954, 1955, 1956, 1963, 1974, 1987, 1988, and 1998. Among these floods, the territory inundated varied between 25 per cent to 68 per cent (in 1998). The flood of 1988 affected nearly 61 per cent of the territory. The flood in 2000 was of a different nature. It engulfed about 24 per cent of the territory, but unusually, it occurred in the south-western region, which had not experienced any flooding over the previous 50 years.

Many analysts have compared the floods of 2004 with that of 1998. It may be recalled here that in 1998, flooding started in the usual way, first in the Eastern Hill Basin. From July until the middle of September, intense rainfall all over the country and outside in the catchment areas caused the flooding. The flood waters however did not recede as fast as it should have because of the unfortunate synchronisation between the flood peaks and high sea levels. This year, flooding has been intense, probably not as long in duration, but as devastating in its consequence. The UNDP has estimated that Bangladesh will need at least one year to recover from the destruction inflicted by the flood on its economy. Newspapers and the electronic media have reported in clinical detail the damage caused to infrastructure and to the economic and social life of the more than 30 million citizens who have had to face the wrath of flood waters. It has destroyed standing crops, devoured fertile agricultural lands and sometimes turned agricultural lands into infertile tracts by covering the area with coarse sand grains in its wake.

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At the household level, people in both villages as well as towns have not only lost their crops but also their valuable assets like live-stock and poultry. Their houses have been damaged and they are now being forced to seek loans on unfavourable terms to start life again. At the community level, bridges, culverts, educational establishments and socio-cultural structures in the rural areas have suffered serious loss. Other important structures like embankments, sluice gates, protective works and canals have also suffered. At the industrial level, hundreds of factories involved with the readymade garments sector, the knitwear sector, the handloom sector and the leather sectors have been badly hit. Agro-processing units and the dairy sectors have also suffered.

I will not enter into the realm of quantification of damages sustained and the possible consequent impact on our economy. This will, like in other years be the source of contention, claims and counter-claims. There will be charges of politicisation of figures and lack of clarity. I will leave this factor to be decided upon by the relevant branches of government and the numerous civil society representatives who have been closely associated in mitigating the effects of flooding from Day One. They will have to tabulate figures and arrive at a consensus.

I shall restrict my views to suggestions on the various factors which might enable a lower riparian country like Bangladesh to tackle this persistent problem.

For more than three decades several approaches towards abatement of the impact of floods have been attempted. This has varied over the years -- from the IECO plan of the late Sixties to the FAP of the early Nineties. Emphasis of different consultants dealt with the perspective of implementing projects for flood control through the construction of embankments and other similar devices. There was also emphasis on integrated water management. Various plans identified ways and means towards of setting agricultural loss due to floods through a more rational approach pertaining to dry season irrigation.

Today, it is clear that flood management in this region cannot be the sole responsibility of only one of the lower riparian states. It is a common obligation that has to be faced collectively. It is also important to understand that human misery caused by a natural disaster has to be tackled through shared resource expenditure. In this context, political will be required to put into effect viable water management juxtaposed with integrated water resources management.

The first step should be to set up a South Asian Water Management Commission consisting of water experts from Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal -- to examine associated problems with the Ganges Basin, the Brahmaputra Basin and the Meghna Basin. Secretary-General of SAARC can also be included as a Member on an ex-officio basis to give the Commission a South Asian institutional format. The should be charged with the task of considering the different problems related to water in an integrated manner, set against the demand and supply of all water users in these three Basins within the national and the regional contexts at different times of the year.

In this context, this Commission should identify the structural measures and regulatory mechanism that will facilitate control of water. This may include the setting up of storage reservoirs and identifying the various points where such construction can be undertaken. Bangladesh is situated in the lowermost deltaic or estuarine courses of the major river systems and consequently cannot provide suitable location for any storage reservoir. This can only be built upstream of the Ganges in Nepal or in the upstream of the Brahmaputra in north-eastern India. Some structures can also be built in the hilly regions of Bhutan through which rivers flow down and subsequently merge with the Brahmaputra. Such a measure will serve the twin purpose of attenuating flood discharge during the rainy season and augmenting the dry season flow with the stored water. It will also ensure protection of crops from flood and provide irrigation facilities during the lean season.

Similarly, specialists should also undertake a broad picture review of how to construct, more effectively, embankments as an engineering device for flood protection. Two important factors however need to be taken into account while doing so -- the possible effect on the environment and also the unpredictable elements in the morphological behaviour of a river. Another area that will need attention will be the potential for channel improvement in rivers that have been affected by gradual alluvial deposition of sediments. The Gorai in Bangladesh is an excellent example of this. If the derelict channels can be opened and dredged properly, it will enhance the conveyance capacity of the rivers. This in turn will make carriage of excess flood waters more effective.

This Commission may, as has already been suggested in various workshops in Bangladesh, also consider some non-structural measures. The first might be termed as flood proofing which would require long term measures to mitigate the effects of flood. These measures have already been in practice in countries like the USA, Japan and parts of Europe. These measures will not prevent floods from inundating a particular area but will be aimed at eliminating or reducing loss of human lives or animal wealth. These steps are expected to ensure that though there will be disruption in the lives of the affected people, they will still have the security to sustain economic and social life after a flood. The measures within this provision might include raising floor levels of homesteads and industrial facilities above recognised flood levels, introducing land-use zoning, better provision of designated flood shelters, ensuring that water supplies through tubewells and other health-related facilities can operate above the potential flood level. This could also include designing of roads to be above peak flood level, the provision of additional bridges or culverts to improve water flows through flood prone designated areas and ensuring that embankments are not washed away.

The above measures might require minor structural support and public sector financial intervention. However, in order to be successful, it will pre-suppose a bi-partisan approach and coordination in development activities related to flood control and drainage. It will also require that hydrological data and analysis are available to those involved with design and construction of the requisite infrastructure.

Another important feature has to be agreed upon and introduced in the true spirit of South Asian cooperation -- flood forecasting and warning as an effective non-structural measure. Transmitting of data in this regard has to be undertaken in real time for satisfactory results. Current satellite and telecommunications technology can make this process a success.

Today's article will however not be complete without necessary reference to the steps that need to be undertaken pertaining to post-flood rehabilitation.

The major components of rehabilitation will include -- employment generation for the rural poor, rehabilitation of associated agricultural activities, reconstruction of rural infrastructure, re-installation of the electricity supply system, rebuilding of houses and reestablishing of the industrial units. The Ministry of Agriculture should also seriously undertake regeneration of agriculture through seed and seedling support, provision of easy agricultural credit, and support to the farmers for growing alternative crops that could include vegetables, tubers and oilseeds.

All these measures will require funds. The government may consider convening a special session of the Parliament to discuss the various inter-related issues openly and arrive at a consensus approach.

The Awami League Government was able to tackle the flood crisis in 1998 very effectively. Despite dire predictions, there were few death and the scenario returned to normalcy very soon. There was no famine and no major shift of rural population to urban areas in search of livelihood. In fact, the next year there was a bumper harvest which greatly assisted in economic recovery. There were also no allegations from donors that there was misuse of funds and materials provided for flood relief and rehabilitation.

I can only hope that this time round, the present Government will be able to emerge from the crisis with some degree of credibility. Their efforts have been criticised and many questions raised. The people will ultimately judge and their judgement will definitely influence the next general elections.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador and Regional Member from Bangladesh to the Global Water Partnership.