Light at the end of the tunnel

Democracies, I am afraid, function on the basis of consensus, not by dictation, however courageous the ruler may be. Musharraf says confidently that he has a solution to Kashmir in his mind. He even spells it out: identify the area, agree upon its status, and demilitarise it. He does not tell me the area he has in view but describes it as the one where religion, geography, and ethnicity meet. He has probably the valley and the surrounding Muslim majority area in mind. Is it bifurcation or trifurcation of Jammu and Kashmir? What about the "Azad Kashmir" under Pakistan? He assures me that geography can be the criterion to identify the area, if not religion.

Status reminds me of the offer Qaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah had made to Sheikh Abdullah before the accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India. It was the Sikkim-like position, then British India's protectorate, which the Sheikh had spurned. When I conveyed Musharraf's thinking to Majid Nizami, chief editor of Nawa-i-Waqt and the Nation, he says it is "too confusing." He would rather have the status quo. Nizami, respected as well as feared, has always held the view that Kashmir's integration with Pakistan is the unfinished agenda of partition.

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Musharraf should know that the Kashmiris on either side say "let there be plague on both houses." They want independence. Yet he is confident that they will step back when some concrete proposals are on the table. Musharraf, however, underlines the necessity to associate the Kashmiris with the talks. Let the Kashmiris on both sides meet; their dialogue may throw up something.

"Why don't you send the Kashmiri leaders in the first bus from Srinagar to Muzaffarabad?" he proposes. It is apparent that the two countries have sorted out their differences over the bus service. The passport is out. Passengers will use documents from the place where they live. "How can we agree to a passport," asks Sardar Qayyum Khan, former Prime Minister of "Azad Kashmir," when I check with him. "It amounts to accepting Kashmir as part of India."

The bus is not the nettle, but Kashmir is. Musharraf is all focused on that. Our talk spreading over an hour hovers around Kashmir. When I tell him that if the confidence building measures were to be implemented, they would generate so much goodwill that Kashmir might not pose any problem, he does not minimise the importance of confidence building measures. But, at the same time, he seems to believe that "the progress made on Kashmir" will determine how far the two countries have covered the distance to normalisation. He cautions that many in Pakistan have already begun to suspect that India is "again at its old game" and wants to solve "other problems" without conceding anything on Kashmir.

The biggest weakness in Musharraf's approach is the presumption that the Indian Prime Minister has to be "courageous enough" to spell out the proposal and the rest will follow. Musharraf is not in favour of any public debate on the proposed agreement before it is signed. "If you propagate it first, there is bound to be opposition in India." He does not see much of a problem in Pakistan. His announcement will be adequate, he says.

My impression is that Musharraf is not familiar with our procedures. True, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh can sign the agreement if and when reached, and the cabinet can ratify it. But our parliament will have to approve it before it has any sanction of acceptability. If there has to be a territorial change, it would require a constitutional amendment. It means the support of two-thirds of majority in the Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha before the bill is passed. Besides, the Supreme Court of India has the right of judicial review.

"We will have lawyers for consultations when we come to discuss any concrete proposal," says Musharraf. It may take three, four days but he says he is confident that it can be done in a day if "we sit from morning till evening." What impresses me is his enthusiasm. He is overwhelmed by the slightest opportunity and minimises the impediments in the way. "There is light at the end of the tunnel," he says.

Another welcome development is that Musharraf has "clicked" well with Manmohan Singh whom he finds sincere and straightforward. He recalls with equal warmth his meeting with former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. However, Musharraf regrets that the breakthrough did not come at Agra three years ago. By this time, he believes, the two countries would have normalised their relations.

Musharraf is convinced that former Home Minister L.K. Advani is "95 per cent responsible" for the failure. He recalls that Vajpayee and he had given approval to a draft statement after going over it, word by word. "I even told my wife to prepare for our travel to Ajmer. But when Vajpayee read out the statement, he said something completely different. I was upset and angry. But I could not do anything."

After meeting Manmohan Singh, Musharraf says, he is confident that Pakistan can do business with India. He goes out of the way to say that the problem does not require a military solution. It has to be a political one. As a military man, he should know better than anyone else.

But why is he in a hurry? His response is thus: I have never set any time limit. I know it will take time. But we cannot afford to go on and on. The Pakistanis are eagerly waiting for a solution. The sooner the problem is settled, the better. Even outside powers are looking at us. The present is the most opportune time.

It is now for the liberals on both sides to suggest options, says Foreign Minister Kurshid Kasuri, present at the meeting. He too feels that if the present opportunity is not grasped, it may not come again. I do not know if he is fair in his expectations. The two governments have already established a back channel through their national security advisors. Non-official efforts are neither encouraged nor recognised.

After meeting Musharraf, I felt that he should know more about the ground realities in India. There is no political party -- the ruling Congress, the BJP, or any other -- that can risk disturbing the Line of Control which Zulfikar Ali Bhutto told me was the "line of peace" even before the Shimla Agreement. Softening borders or giving more autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir is achievable. Even demilitarisation of the valley is possible provided militancy within and without Kashmir ends.

Any other formula seems difficult in a democratic and secular India to sell. The solution on Kashmir should strengthen the Indian polity, not weaken it. Musharraf should realise that there is a point beyond which the Manmohan Singh government cannot go.

Kuldip Nayar is an eminent Indian columnist.