Arafat will live on through Palestine

The author with President Arafat during the latter's visit to Dhaka on 25 March, 1981

In four decades of leadership, his presence gave the Palestinian nationalist cause international recognition. It also bestowed on the Palestinian quest for statehood a spirit of legitimacy. Arafat, personally, through his single-minded efforts, went on from being a guerilla icon to a Nobel-prize winning peacemaker.

Shunned in the last years of his life by the US Administration, he nevertheless continued to hold on to his belief of a free and independent State of Palestine with Jerusalem as its capital. Despite the many efforts of the Israeli government and his old foe Sharon, he remained in the shattered Office Compound in Ramallah. He was without his wife and his daughter, but this last stand reflected his solidarity with his people and his dream.

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The last few days before his death, most unfortunately, brought forth to the surface the many uncertainties that have plagued the Palestinian Administration over the last few years. There were hints of brewing succession battles and threats of chaos within the Palestinian territories. The situation on the ground was also embittered with the last minute quarrel with Mrs Suha Arafat and her application of strict French privacy laws to control access to her dying husband and severely limit information about his health.

Yet, despite media speculation, the current Palestinian leadership appears to have handled Arafat's absence with 'relative calm'. This approach has already been welcomed by US Secretary of State Colin Powell, who has remarked that he hopes 'that sense of quiet and calm can be maintained and (that) it gives us something to work with'. He has also reiterated that the United States was "ready to engage as soon as it is appropriate to engage" with the so-called road map peace plan.

This sense of urgency has already been manifest in the meeting held last Friday in the White House in Washington between senior US and EU officials. Reports have indicated that they have undertaken serious discussion about 'the emerging realities in the region' and its possible impact on the existing peace plan in the Middle East. The meeting was attended by representatives from France, Germany, the UK and other EU officials. They examined in particular the possibility of moderate leaders emerging within the Palestinian hierarchy and their possible impact on future negotiations. They, exchanged views but were 'unable to arrive at any conclusion'.

In any case, such an effort was most important given the fact that President Bush has just been re-elected for his second term and has already gone on record that he intends "to work for a free Palestinian State at peace with Israel". It is also equally significant that this Washington get together came along just before Bush's meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who has been prodding his American ally to attach a higher priority towards the finding of a solution to the Palestinian problem.

Abu Ammar, as Yasser Arafat was also known, believed like many other Arab leaders in centralised leadership. Devolution of power was not particularly in evidence. Consequently, the absence of a recognised political infrastructure might create complications. This brew has also been further compounded with the presence of various militant groups who have their own agenda with regard to Israel.

It is understood that according to the existing Constitution of the Palestine Authority, the Speaker of their Parliament, Mr Rauhi Fattouh will become the temporary President of the Palestinian Authority.

Senior Cabinet Minister Saeb Erekat has commented that Fattouh's selection will assist and ensure a smooth transition. A virtual unknown, he will be expected to be the Caretaker President until elections can be held in sixty days. His background will also avert unnecessary controversy.

I believe that the people of Palestine, in the spirit of true democracy, deserve to have a free and fair election. There will be many problems, but they can be overcome with US assistance. The US Administration has a particular responsibility to extend their help towards the Palestinian Officials engaged in the electoral process. This will include making available facilities in the many West Bank towns and cities that have in the recent past been re-occupied by Israel. A proper election will denote the need for free and unrestricted electioneering. This is the only way out, and US, EU and Israel should facilitate this. Similarly, the UN should also be inter-active and provide, if so asked, the tools for the successful completion of the task ahead.

There are various Palestinian personalities who are expected to come to the fore.

It is understood that Suha Arafat, Nasser Al-Kidwah (Palestinian Representative to the UN) and close members of the Arafat family support Faruq Kaddoumi, a veteran of the PLO.

The role of Prime Minister Qurei has also expanded after Arafat fell ill. In the past week, he has not only taken over many of Arafat's important executive and security powers, but also the responsibility of looking after (the authority of signature) many Palestinian bank accounts (which were earlier solely controlled by Arafat).

On the other hand, analysts in the Arab media have suggested that the Palestinian leadership in the West Bank and Gaza would like to promote Mahmoud Abbas alias Abu Mazen as the next Head of the PLO. This has been underlined by the fact, that in Arafat's absence, Abbas has been chairing meetings of the PLO's executive body. It may be recalled that Abbas was Prime Minister before Qurei and is best remembered for having inaugurated the peace 'road map' with Israel at a summit in June 2003 (with Bush and Ariel Sharon) and also having secured a cease-fire agreement with Palestinian militant groups.

The next few weeks will be critical for Palestine.

The fate of Palestine will require an astute leadership which will be acceptable not only to the re-elected US Administration but also to the EU.

Emotion will obviously have a role to play. This must however be tempered by cool and rational decision making abilities. The Palestinian electorate will hopefully choose people who already enjoy international credibility with regard to transparency, financial accountability and desire for peace. The militant groups will also have to understand that their frustration over emergence of independent Statehood can only be achieved through dialogue and not through the barrel of a gun.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador -- any response to mzamir@ dhaka.net