Parivar at war with itself

Last month, Mr L.K. Advani had to take over as its president amidst the washing of dirty linen in public -- because no second-rung leader would have survived in the job. But now, even his authority stands undermined.

At the November 10 party office-bearers' meeting, Ms Uma Bharati staged a major political tamasha. She did something that no Jana Sangh/BJP leader has ever done: challenge party bosses in the full glare of cameras while abusing Messrs M. Venkaiah Naidu, Pramod Mahajan, and Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi. She openly defied Mr Advani to take disciplinary action against her.

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This episode caps numerous acts of protest and defiance by Ms Bharati, especially centred on her Tiranga Yatra, which tried to wrap the National Flag around communalism. The so-called sanyasin cannot forgive the BJP for having considered her unfit to rule Madhya Pradesh. True to type, she took her revenge in a loutish and strident way.

The episode reveals that the BJP's leadership crisis has deepened. Leave alone the "second-generation" even its "first-generation" leaders don't count. The greatest loser is none other than Mr Advani.

Equally important are the growing rifts between the BJP and the RSS, and the BJP and the VHP loonie Right -- despite Mr Advani's attempts to placate them. For instance, his very first pronouncements as party president mouthed classic Hindutva slogans -- Ram temple, "foreign origins," Muslim demographic "invasion." And his first trip outside Delhi was to the RSS's Nagpur headquarters.

The parivar's fissures are visible in three ways. First, sustained attacks by Ashok Singhal and Co on a BJP "hardliner," Mr Advani. Second, Ms Bharati was greatly encouraged by the sangh -- in particular, Mr K.N. Govindacharya, who was sacked by the BJP for berating Mr Vajpayee. (The RSS never disowned him.) Third, the RSS has reprimanded Mr Advani for holding the office-bearers' meeting in public.

RSS organ "Organiser" has attacked him for allowing "full-blast televising" of Ms Bharati's remarks and permitting the media "to play a major role in BJP affairs … It is one thing to be media-savvy, another to be captivated."

The article only mildly rebuked Ms Bharati for being "impulsive." Otherwise, it praised her as a "very effective campaigner; a mass mobiliser for the Hindu cause" and "a very dynamic leader …

committed to high ideals," who will always "remain part of the sangh movement."

The BJP is making conciliatory gestures towards Ms Bharati at the RSS's behest. This will further damage Mr Advani's authority and strengthen the RSS vis-à-vis the BJP.

The BJP faces an acute crisis. It has failed to comprehend, accept, or reconcile itself to its Lok Sabha election defeat. From outright denial, it has graduated to citing "internal" causes: we lost our ideological moorings; our campaign peaked too soon; "India-Shining" was pitched too high…

This denies outright that the party's appeal and its social base have shrunk and that it offers no vision to the people. It peddles a bankrupt mix of communalism, neoliberalism, and chauvinist nationalism.

The BJP's crisis today -- despite being in power in six states -- is far grimmer than in 1984, when it was reduced to two Lok Sabha seats. Then, the party was buoyed up dramatically by the anti-Babri movement. This catapulted it to 89 seats. Today, there is no such social movement. The Ayodhya "movement" is a spent force.

In 1984, the BJP was still an untested, "novel" entity. It has since been tried, tested, and rejected. Earlier, the BJP was a rising force in the Gangetic heartland. Today, it's in dire shape in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Earlier, it could exploit the Congress's historic decline. Now, the Centre-Left space is expanding and the Congress growing.

Earlier, there was strong synergy between the BJP, RSS and VHP. The VHP mobilised numbers -- through hatred. The RSS provided ideological cement and organisational muscle. And the BJP handled the parliamentary, "respectable" side of this division of labour.

All that has broken down. The VHP's in revolt. And the RSS is administering "shock treatment" to Mr Advani to remind him of his promise that the BJP "will return to Hindutva." The BJP has become a virtual RSS prisoner.

Three questions arise. Fifteen years after its meteoric rise, the BJP is shrinking. Is this a temporary downturn or long-term decline? Will the BJP split -- into a hardline fringe like the Jana Sangh, plus a relatively "moderate" party? Does Hindutva have a future?

The BJP has probably entered a phase of long decline. Given present trends, it's hard to see how it can bounce back. No likely electoral victories are in sight. And the sectarian party will continue to play a highly negative and obstructionist role, eroding its credibility.

Of course, its opponents could get discredited if they follow right-wing conservative policies. But the UPA hasn't quite embraced these.

The BJP could split if a succession struggle breaks out after Messrs Vajpayee and Advani fade out. New contenders could emerge for succession -- Narendra Milosevic Modi, with VHP-RSS backing, might join hands with Ms Bharati. In this case, less hardline leaders, allied to industrial houses, might split.

However, a constituency for Hindutva will remain. It was always there -- even at the high noon of the Freedom Movement, and during the anti-RSS wave after Gandhi's assassination. But this will be a marginal, fringe constituency, driven by an anti-Islamic mindset, and rejection of a plural, multi-ethnic, multi-religious India. That hardly spells a bright future for the BJP.

Praful Bidwai is an eminent Indian columnist.