Palestine-Israel dispute: Can Britain break the logjam?

How did we come to this? Britain has a long standing interest in the region and in spite of the fact that she is not the Imperial power for a long time and has virtually left the field to the others and mainly her great ally the United States of America, she has closely followed developments and has never really washed her hands off the region. Thus as a price for her joining President George Bush in the Iraq misadventure, she has extracted from President Bush that he remains engaged in the Palestine-Israel dispute. The Road Map is an outcome of British insistence. President Bush tilted so heavily towards Israel of Ariel Sharon, the Prime Minister, that the Road Map never got off the ground. Bush gave carte blanche to Sharon to quench his thirst of Palestinian blood for nearly three years.

The reelection of President Bush for another four-year term means that the stagnation that has gripped the Middle East dispute is bound to continue for the four years of Bush Presidency starting in 2005. The Jewish lobby has an iron grip on the Bush Presidency and the new Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is not expected to make any change in the situation. If anything Rice is expected to do the White House bidding more faithfully than her predecessor Colin Powell.

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The death of the Palestinian Icon Yasser Arafat has opened new possibilities for the region. Long before the death of Arafat, Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon had initiated the move to withdraw from Gaza, a highly inflammable and over populated region of Palestine. He is bent upon dismantling some settlements there since they are like sitting ducks for Palestinian fire. On the other hand Sharon would wish to strengthen his position in West Bank, the fertile part of Palestine. Indeed Sharon would want to resettle more Jews there and in reality grab the entire West Bank. Thus his dream of creating another 'Bantustan' will be complete. Jerusalem, 'the eternal capital' of Israel will be conveniently forgotten. The problem in this scheme of things is that Jerusalem is the holy place for the three monotheistic faiths -- Judaism, Christianity and Islam. The courageous and nearly successful initiative of former US President Bill Clinton foundered on the rock of Jerusalem as Chairman Arafat and Israeli Premier Ehud Barak were unable to take the final plunge, pushing the region into terrible chaos and suffering.

Britain, it appears has reached the conclusion that there is a terrible void in the Middle East as the main player the USA remains paralysed. In order to find a solution to this half-a-century dispute almost all avenues have been explored including the United Nations and the Superpowers the US and the former Soviet Union. In later years the US alone tried her hand since she alone could bring Israel to see reason. The last attempt of Bill Clinton has proved that USA too is unable to impose a solution on the parties to the dispute. We have noted that Bush years have been totally barren.

Can Britain really play the mediator? The truth is that Britain is not among the great powers of the world. More importantly she does not seem to have any special leverage on Israel, an essential precondition to success. The US alone has the power and the influence and it seems President Bush is unwilling to or incapable of exercising that influence. There is also the additional danger that due to his unquestioning support of Bush's Iraq war, he faces the danger of being branded the Trojan horse. As for Palestine leadership, they are in such dire straits that they may be prepared to look at any little glimmer of hope from any quarter.

The initiative of Tony Blair is very timely and deserves support. If anything this is an attempt to break the logjam and the mood of hopelessness that seems to sweep the region.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.