Looking back: The strategic picture

The majority of Americans spoke for Mr. Bush on November 2. 51 per cent gave him a second term in the White House. Although America was divided in the choice of their leader, the world was near unanimous in its choice.

The UN Secretary General did finally speak out his mind on the status of the US intervention in Iraq but he was eighteen months too late in terming the US-UK intervention in Iraq, an act clearly out of conformity with UN Charter, "illegal."

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The Kyoto Protocol, with Russia's ratification, entered into force in October but the US steadfastly refuses to have anything to do with its implementation.

South Asia
South Asia saw the two arch-rivals proceeding towards a gradual normalisation of their relationship with the resumption of direct flights that had been snapped following the attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001. The two countries decided to move away from their hackneyed stance to bring eight major bilateral issues under the rubric of comprehensive dialogue that has been underway since the beginning of 2004.

The shift in Pakistan's position on Kashmir was noticeable, and, by India's own admission, there has been a reduction in separatists' activities in the valley. No doubt there are new signals on Kashmir.

That the two big powers have also got down to talking about their conventional weapons alongside talks on nuclear risk reduction, is a very significant development. The decision of the two South Asian nuclear powers to establish a hotline to offset the possibilities of a nuclear confrontation came not a moment too soon.

A heartening matter is that Saarc will have two summits on the trot, something that did not happen for several years.

Home
At home, security issues in Bangladesh were dominated by several bomb blasts, two of which had the potential for serious national and international fallout. The first of the two occurred in Sylhet in May 2004 where the British High Commissioner to Bangladesh was the target.

The August 21 bomb blast at the Awami League meeting was of a different category than those of the past. Never was such a high value target at such a large gathering subjected to such a well-coordinated grenade attack. It is suspected that the grenades used in the May Shah Jalal Shrine blast and in the August 21 attack were of the same type.

The greatest arms haul in the history of Bangladesh occurred almost by accident. The police seized ten truckloads of very sophisticated and latest variety of small arms and explosives while being unloaded at a government jetty in Chittagong. The circumstances surrounding the entire episode remain a mystery.

The investigations into the arms haul or into the bomb incidents have not been completed yet or the results not made public, if completed at all, while the investigation report of the one-man inquiry committee of the August 21 bomb attack is yet to be made public.

Iraq
There were good reasons why Iraq caught our attention in the same measure that it was the main preoccuptation of the US military and foreign policy establishment. Almost two years after Mr. Bush's haughty comments that the war in Iraq was over, every single day since then, the occurrences in Iraq have belied the US president's remarks. The myth of WMD in Iraq has been finally and fully exposed.

UN Security Council Resolution 1546 commonly known as the Iraq Resolution provided a veneer of legitimacy to the occupation of Iraq, something that the US-UK axis had failed to browbeat the Security Council into endorsing before March 20, 2003. 1546 did make clear to the US-UK axis that it must act through the UN in order to gain legitimacy.

Understandably, the immediate US concern is the forthcoming Iraqi election in 2005. Much is at stake for the US in the two elections in 2005. However, the December suicide bombing at a US forward base at Mosul have called into question US ability to provide adequate security for holding free and fair polls in Iraq.

War on Terror
Iraq has also been the test case for the US "war on terror" in 2004. Much of US efforts have been devoted to this issue. Several reports published in 2004 have belied the US-UK propaganda on Iraq and the so-called war on terror. Amnesty International has accused the US of transforming the world into a more dangerous place with continued erosion of human rights, and Fredric Gouin of the ICRC had characterised the war against terror as a "sexed up term, for media consumption, which is, in legal terms, non-existent."

The International Institute of International Studies (IISS) in its report said that instead of crippling it US actions have invigorated Al-Qaeda. The US actions in Afghanistan have galvanized the group rather than hurt it in any significant way. The attitude of the coalition has accelerated recruitment to the ranks of Al-Qaeda, and the US tactics in Iraq have engendered insurgency.

Afghanistan has seen a presidential election where the eventual result was but a foregone conclusion. President Karzai has sworn in his cabinet on December 24, which will need the approval of a yet-to-be-elected parliament. Much remain to be attained, but, given the security environment, where neither the Karzai writ nor the American domination extends beyond the capital and the military camps, it is to be seen how democracy spreads its wings in Afghanistan. It should be remembered that "Democracy does not rest on leaders solely, but on functioning institutions and self-sustainable communities" and "where semi-autonomous warlord states traditionally form a stronger confederacy than a republic. The April 2005 elections will test the full mettle of the Karzai government.

Bin Laden and his chief deputy continued to evade the American net and continued to direct the Al-Qaeda activities around the world. Interestingly, some commentators are now coming out with the fact that the threat of Al-Qaeda was greatly overblown, particularly by politicians who, again according to one analyst "in a post-ideological age, increasingly use fear, rather than vision, to bolster their positions." He is highly critical of the British audio-visual media for helping to reinforce the myth by its unseemly obsession with "Islamic Terrorism."

Palestine
Relief at the death of Arafat was palpable in some of his archenemies in the US and Israel. They saw his death as a harbinger of peace between Palestine and Israel, meaning thereby that the departed Palestinian leader was the one who was resisting peace moves between the two countries. And Israel, under the umbrella of war on terror, replicating US actions in Iraq, continued its repression on Palestine with impunity, exemplified by the targeted killing of Palestinian leaders that Israel considers being involved in terrorism against it.

In a landmark verdict the International Court of Justice spoke its mind on what has come to be termed as the "Apartheid Wall" by a majority of 14-1. Not surprisingly, the lone abstention was the member of the court from the United States. The World Court's verdict, on the legality of Israel's four hundred forty-mile network of fences and walls, was described as one of the high-profile rulings in the court's 58-year history.

The Middle East road map was all but floundering. With Iraq in the forefront, it appears that the world has forgotten a nation called Palestine. The Palestine issue, that appears to have gone into the backburner, remains a threat to global peace.

How Safe is the World Today?
Comments of two important international personages on the issue of a safer world as a result of US war on terror and removal of Saddam has belied the oft-repeated US president's cliche. The comments, of the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and the erstwhile UN weapons inspector Hans Blix, which echoed one another, were an unequivocal no.

The UN Secretary General was quite clear when he commented on a television programme, "The Iraq war has done little to increase security across the world or halt the activities of international terrorists. I cannot say the world is safer when you consider the violence around us …and see the terrorist attacks around the world and you see what is going on in Iraq."

Hans Blix, speaking to the Reuters said, "The acknowledged gain of the war was that a treacherous and murderous dictator was removed, but the rest has been tragedy and failure ... It has stimulated terrorism."

The author is Editor, Defence and Strategic Affairs, The Daily Star.