ME peace process: The way ahead

The current scenario requires that the international community works with both sides in promoting peace and democracy in the region. The recent US elections, the Palestinian presidential elections scheduled for tomorrow, and the possible withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza have juxtaposed to open a "window of hope." They have rekindled the process aimed at achieving stability and lasting peace in the region.

Any discussion of this issue will have to take into account three agreed factors that are inter-woven closely together. The first relates to the existing roadmap. It is probably the best way forward, with disengagement on the Israeli side, an important first step. The second refers to the economic situation in the region, particularly for Palestinians. This is worrisome. Fighting has to end before this issue can be tackled in a holistic manner and rehabilitation achieved. Lastly, understanding that the international community and regional partners have a particular responsibility to assist Palestinians, in their quest to preserve stability ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for January 2005.

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In this context, it also needs to be particularly appreciated that recent changes have impacted on chances for renewed peace efforts between Israelis and Palestinians. These include security reform, a peaceful and democratic hand-over of power in Palestine and the implementation of a three-year plan to lead from crisis to recovery in the Palestinian territories.

However, one aspect will remain crucial for any chance of success -- Israel refraining from any interference in the forthcoming voting process and allowing fair elections to go forward. This is important, given the fact that the presidential election is expected to be the first of a series of elections to be held in the near future, including municipal and parliamentary elections.

The economic situation in the Palestinian territories is very delicate. Four years of closure has caused the worst recession in its history. Checkpoints and other physical impediments to trade and the free movement of goods, have led to poverty creeping into the population.

It is now estimated that half the Palestinian population live under 2 dollars a day, with 26 per cent of them unemployed. This figure is projected to rise to 34 per cent by the end of 2006. Such a scenario is expected to impact on the general population.

European economists are already warning that the percentage of population living under poverty might eventually rise to 54 per cent in three years.

The problem is further compounded by the fact that thousands of Palestinians have lost their homes in Israeli raids. This in turn has created tens of thousands of additional Palestinian refugees.

Today, the ball is no longer confined to the resource starved Palestinian Authority. A peaceful transition after Chairman Arafat requires both political and financial support by Palestine's neighbours and its international partners.

The four members of the Quartet (EU, US, Russia and the United Nations) have to spell out how disengagement can be initiated as an integral part of the roadmap. Israel also has to be held responsible to its promises, particularly in the implementation of the roadmap on the ground. This is basic and fundamental and related to the time frame for the negotiation of permanent status for Palestine. This is also inter-connected with a full Israeli settlement freeze and an upholding of the 2000 agreement on a bilateral ceasefire to enable viable political stability to be achieved.

One aspect needs to the understood by the Quartet. A two-state solution will be that much more difficult, if Israel continues to build both settlements and the wall. Similarly, continued military action against Palestinians by the Israelis can only further endanger the peace process. Such steps will further erode chances of guaranteeing and end to violent attacks by Palestinian radicals.

Relevant parties interested in bringing about stability need to act from now. A strategy has to be drawn up anticipating the "day-after" scenario that might follow Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The Quartet should agreed and develop a detailed plan, by which, a monitoring scheme will eventually enable both sides to fulfil their agreed requirements.

I believe that the key condition for any success is the political and public endorsement of such a set-up. This could serve as a catalyst for negotiations on further substantive issues, based on the roadmap.

We have to remember that offering people in the region a horizon is fundamental to achieving progress.

The situation on the ground will require not only political will, but also (on a priority basis) reduced impediments to trade and commerce. The international community has to address this aspect with seriousness. This will have to be undertaken not only to bolster the job market but also to develop a long-term macroeconomic plan for reconstruction, employment and the future direction of existing industrial zones. These are the only measures that can attract outside investment.

It needs to be also appreciated by the Quartet that the election of a fresh President will not resolve the problem. Negotiating in the face of ongoing violence will be practically impossible. In the long run, neither a unilateral nor an imposed solution can resolve this conflict.

At the same time, one needs to take cognizance of the fact that chances for a peaceful conclusion have been affected by the obdurate policies pertaining to unilateral disengagement. The orthodox extreme right elements in the Israeli administration have left very little flexibility. They need to be persuaded by the United States (the only country they will listen to) that their unyielding approach can be to Israel's disadvantage in the long run.

Consequently, the Quartet will have to address domestic politics inside Israel. This needs to be done to ensure a degree for stability. Otherwise, even if Israel states that it is willing to fulfil its roadmap commitments, such assertion might be of just face value. It will definitely curtail that Government's willingness to proceed. It will also reduce that Government's ability to assist in the revival of the Palestinian economy. That in turn will hamper the viability of the future Palestinian state.

At the same time, the Quartet will have to assist the new Palestinian Authority in the key challenge of maintaining unity and achieving a smooth and democratic transition of power.

This is an extremely significant juncture in Palestinian history. The reestablishment of contacts between the US and Palestinians and the willingness of the EU and the US to help Palestinians in dealing with the ongoing transition will be of importance in the coming months of this "stabilisation phase." They have to seize this opportunity. Abu Mazen is a leader with vision. He is genuinely respected internationally and is considered "a man of just and lasting peace." One hopes that he will be able to build on his past experience in leadership.

Both the international community and the wider Arab world will have to support the Palestinians in this difficult time and help create the minimum conditions for necessary cohesion. This process can be facilitated by Israel withdrawing to the September 2000 agreed lines, increasing their financial transfers to Palestinian territories and ending their reprisal killings. These factors will strengthen the hands of the new Palestinian leadership and enable them to restore law and order and also bring back their security forces under the control of the government.

It also needs to be recognised that the mere holding of an election now will not resolve radical feelings. If Hamas indeed boycotts the electoral process, achieving a provisional ceasefire would be questionable.

What is required is a strong transatlantic vision for the region and collaboration with the international community. It has to be accepted by the Quartet that the parameters of a solution for Israel's secure borders indirectly depends on the final status of Palestine. There is no longer any time to sit back and let the situation deteriorate further. The EU in particular has to understand this. The possible future enlargement of the EU to include Turkey, would give it a directly shared border with the region.

The Quartet has to move beyond their limited matrix. Innovative solutions need to be brought in. The European Neighbourhood Policy might be a functional tool in this regard. This could be the carrot for Israel's withdrawal from occupied territories. On the other hand, the Quartet could mould Palestinian public opinion on the streets by offering assistance and financial aid to the Palestinian refugees and internally displaced persons as a basic tenet of their future development policy. Such a step will strengthen the functional abilities of the moderate Palestinian Authority and enhance chances of stable democracy and free markets.

A viable Palestinian state cannot exist within Gaza only -- if only for economic reasons. Both sides have to be clear about what's at the end of the road. This has to include both states living in security. They face common challenges that need pragmatic solutions.

Muhammad Zamir is a former Secretary and Ambassador -- any response to mzamir@dhaka.net.