Will Turkey finally become an EU member?

For many Turks, joining the EU is an obsession. Liberals and the business community in Turkey are keen on EU membership because it will promote basic freedoms and economic reforms. Minorities, particularly the Kurds, see EU membership as the best way to secure safety from violation of human rights. According to the State Planning Board of Turkey between 2014-20 Turkish economy will grow at six percent per annum, per capita income will be over $9000, Turkish membership will contribute 386 billion Euros to the EU during this period, and Turkey's imports from EU will amount to more than 150 billion Euros from the current 28 billion. Besides, Turkey can offer a well trained and disciplined work force to Europe's dwindling and aging population.

The question of Turkish membership of the EU, however, is controversial, to say the least, among Europeans themselves. Austria, which historically served as a bulwark for Christian Europe against the Ottoman Empire, may hold a referendum on Turkish membership. Austrian President Heinz Fischer has strongly suggested a pan-European referendum on this issue. In Belgium, former Prime Ministers Willy Claes and Karel Van Miert oppose Turkish admission. Similar opposition has been expressed by Jacques Delors, the former President of the European Commission. Though the Greek government supports the Turkish candidature, the majority of the Greeks oppose it. Former French President Valery Giscard D'Estaing fears Turkey's entry will spell the end of Europe. Though President Jacques Chirac has given statements supporting Turkish admission, the chairman of his political party is opposed to full Turkish membership of the EU.

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Other opponents include Slovakia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Malta, and Cyprus. Though German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has given open and clear support, prominent opposition conservative politician and a member of Helmut Kohl's cabinet Wolfgang Schauble has raised some troubling questions that can only be sorted out by intra-EU dialogue. Schauble argues that the EU as a community of nations and values is too important to be subjected to an argument of Turkey's inclusion merely on the strategic ground of Turkey being a crucial ally of the West. He doubts that an EU with Turkey as a member would be able to continue building "an ever closer political union or speak with one voice … It is time to start thinking about limiting the EU's size."

Emphasising the fact that the EU is after all European, Wolfgang Schauble argues that, though Australia and Japan could easily fulfill admission criteria, no one proposes that they should become EU members. Offering Turkey "privileged partnership" Schauble speaks in no uncertain terms that now is no time to consider taking in more new members -- especially Turkey that could soon have a bigger population than any EU member state. He probably has in mind that as full member Turkey will be one of the five European giants in the decision making mechanism, will be strongly represented in the European Parliament, and have equal voting rights along with Germany, France, Britain, Italy. Dismissing the charge that opposition to Turkey is because it is a Muslim country, Schauble explains Europe's hesitation to admit Turkey is because of potential problems that could arise by admitting a country which shares hundreds of miles of borders with Syria and Iran into a union that all but guarantees freedom of movement of all individuals. In other words most of Turkey's territory not being in Europe its admission would mean extension of the EU's external borders to Middle Eastern nations.

Besides, in addition to the Cyprus dispute and Aegean crisis with Greece, many Europeans have severe doubts on the democratic and secular nature of Turkey. Despite Prime Minister Erdogan's impressive record of legislation to accord with European demands and Copenhagen criteria for EU membership, subordinating Turkey's traditionally strong military to civilian control by forging common cause with the reformist elements of the military establishment long committed to the country's secularity, detractors are quick to point out Erdogan's orthodox Muslim upbringing -- being a protege of Islamist Prime Minister Erbakan -- and his conviction and imprisonment for using religion to foment disorder. Critics argue that Erdogan's transformation from Islamic orthodoxy to secularity is tactical despite the fact that structural reforms have been legislated to curtail the powers of the military dominated National Security Council.

In spite of all out efforts to conform to the criteria set by the Copenhagen European Council Summit relating to stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, rule of law, human rights and protection of minorities, functioning market economy, and ability to take on obligations regarding political, economic and monetary union, many Turks believe that ultimately the EU will reject a Muslim candidate. Despite strong American support for Turkish membership of the EU and by the Atlanticist European powers like Britain, westerners including Europeans by and large do believe in an on-going clash of civilisations between Islam and Christianity.

European governments may reject such a notion pursued as a state policy, but discrimination faced by the Muslim diaspora in the West termed by Professor Prima Werbner as "spiraling progressive alienation" from the mainstream western society cannot be denied. Communalism displacing communitarian values, fear of the unknown, and a resurgent racialism are undeniably current in western life today. One may recall that Samuel Huntington, while identifying western and Islamic civilizations among others, observed that differences among civilisations are not only real, they are basic and they are differentiated from each other by history, language, culture, tradition, and most importantly religion. Huntington adds that in Italy, France, and Germany racism is increasingly open and political reactions and violence against Arab and Turkish migrants have become more intense and wide spread since 1990.

Indeed Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi in his characteristic candid manner once asserted that "the underlying problem for the West is not terrorism nor Islamic fundamentalism but Islam i.e. a rival and inferior civilisation." The apprehension of the Turks being denied EU membership on grounds of religion cannot be totally discounted. If the argument is that Turkey is mostly Asian, then so is Cyprus. If Turkey is relatively underdeveloped, then so are Bulgaria and Rumania. If Turkey is not sufficiently secular, then one should remember that divorce was illegal in Ireland at the time of its accession into the EU.

Rejection of EU membership to Turkey would run the risk of cementing the impression among ordinary Muslims that European Union is indeed a "club of the Christians" and the most extremist elements among them could find another excuse to spread anti-western sentiment among the disaffected and marginalised sections of the Muslim societies. On the other hand, taking Turkey in as a full member of the EU could be beneficial to the West as Turkey can effectively play the role of a bridge between the West and the Islamic world. Turkey's secular credentials are unassailable. In recent times, Turkey's leadership has grown increasingly concerned over Islamic fundamentalism and considers political Islam as a threat to the country's security. Then again, the Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Conference is a Turk who can play a moderating role between the West and the Islamic world, should it become necessary.

In any case, the European Union may consider strictly following the same principles applied while taking the ten new members and in negotiating the new ones who are expected to be taken in the near future. Even any slight implication of religious discrimination in the admission process could only add to the already global turbulence and cast a shadow over Europe's post-Renaissance values so admired around the world as the only hope of countervailing the muscularity of the Colossus that has brought so much grief into the world.

Kazi Anwarul Masud is a former Secretary and Ambassador.