Can Abbas move the ME peace process forward?

Yasser Arafat passed away in November last in a military hospital in Paris. He could not be buried in the Holy City of Jerusalem due to the opposition of his ferocious detractor Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon. Nor could Arafat see his dream of an independent Palestine realised although he traveled around the world as the President of Palestine and accorded treatment of a head of state. His last four years were of virtual house arrest in Ramallah as Sharon unleashed death and destruction on his defenseless people. Indeed under the prodding of his friend Sharon, US President George Bush refused to meet him. Thus the Peace Process that the predecessor of Bush, President Bill Clinton had brought to a near successful conclusion, died a natural death.

The election of Mahmoud Abbas has been hailed by President Bush and Ariel Sharon. For the Peace Process to have any chance of success, it must be resumed from where it was left off during the Clinton presidency. President Clinton invested all eight years of his tenure to find a solution to this half-a-century old conflict. The Oslo Accord of the mid-nineties to which both Palestine and Israel were signatories provided the perfect platform for a settlement. We may recall that Arafat dealt with Israeli Premiers Yitzhak Rabin and Ehud Barak, both considered doves in contrast with Sharon who is a confirmed hawk. In the White House sat President Bill Clinton, who had established himself as thoroughly impartial between the Palestinians and Israelis and his White House doors remained open for Arafat as for Barak. It is on the issue of Jerusalem that the negotiations broke down when a settlement was within sight.

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The talks must resume from where it was left off and that point of resumption is Jerusalem. As we know by now that Jerusalem is the Holy City of the three monotheistic faiths -- namely Judaism, Christianity and Islam, it is clear that Jerusalem must be equitably divided between Palestine and Israel, with adequate safeguard for both and a special dispensation for the Christians. Indeed President Clinton had nearly succeeded in reaching an agreement between the two parties, both of whom will have their capitals in Jerusalem. It is because Arafat and Barak were unable to take the ultimate plunge that negotiations failed.

In order to understand the dynamics of the situation, we must take into account that in Palestine like in Israel there are peace camps as war camps. Thus the failure of Sharon's policy of strong arm for the last four years when he has rained death and destruction on the hapless Palestinians. In order for the talks to resume between the Palestinians and Israelis it is essential for Washington to ease Sharon out of office. He has been too long associated with the strong arm policy and is too old to change his ways. Since it is clearly understood that Washington has a central role in the Palestine-Israel dispute, she alone can bring about this change. Otherwise the dispute will end up in meaningless noises and will not move forward.

It is true that the emergence of Mahmoud Abbas as the leader of the Palestinians has brought an element of hope, which is tinged with doubt whether he can move the Peace Process forward. He has a Herculean task ahead of him. The Hamas, which boycotted the elections, is willing to give him time to bring about a change in the regime of occupation of Palestinian territories by Israel, which has rendered life intolerable for the Palestinians. The security situation is delicate to say the least. A single suicide bomber can upset the apple cart. On the other hand the military in Israel has to exercise utmost restraint.

The Middle East is living in hope and fear. The eyes will be focused on President George W Bush. He has four years ahead of him. He spent the last four years of his presidency in flattering Sharon and turning a blind eye to the killing spree of the Israeli premier. Will he change his ways, time will tell.

Arshad-uz-Zaman is a former Ambassador.