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BNP's limited options
Even though the Rapid Action Battalion seems to have quietened things down, the BNP desperately needs friends. It has shown skill in surviving the defection of its ex-General Secretary (and former President) B Chowdhury. But they must still be wondering whether the dam will burst. Their allies, the Jamaat-e-Islami have benefited from being part of the governing alliance. They have gained credibility without being tarred with the general failure of the government. However, they have less to offer electorally, despite their strong network in the mosques. Next time round, they should be considered a liability rather than an asset.

The BNP could prefer an alliance with the Jatiyo Party (Ershad). Both are military creations, with similar histories. If HM Ershad were to be President (again), with the BNP holding the Prime Ministerial and major posts, this would be a formidable force.

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This would rally all those against the major opposition party, the Awami League. The BNP could then ditch the Jamaat and the Islami Oikyo Jote. In one stroke, they would remove the stigma of 'collaboration' in 1971, which the opposition can play on with the presence of these two parties. The BNP would also be free from the charge of being soft on so-called Islamic fundamentalism? Bye bye Bangla bhai. They could seek favour with Washington and New Delhi. So far, there has been no hint of any such move or understanding. But where else do they look?

Awami League which way?
The Awami League is trying to cobble together an on-off 'pro-liberation' coalition. Since it is now a centre-right party, it feels that allying with small leftist parties will enable them to project a 'progressive' image. They would then 'unite' secular forces and go for a showdown with the 'fundamentalist' and 'communal' groups. The fallout from 1971 would still be with us. Would this be enough? It's doubtful.

Firstly, this is not a message about going forward. It is about fighting the old battles from the past, to a young electorate who were either in primary school or not even born then.

Secondly, the Left do not pull in too many votes at the ballot box. This is despite their reputation as the political conscience of the people. They have the power as a political movement to derail plans to export gas or privatise ports. They provide the Awami League goodwill but not sufficient seats.

Which third party?
Until recently, the media have been going gaga about the so-called Alternative Stream. Dr. B. Chowdhury's Bikalpadhara started off as a BNP offshoot. So far, he has prised away two MPs (one of whom is his own son). The BNP is incensed and would like nothing better than to crush this new upstart group. It is not clear what the direction or message of the party is. Awami League strategists may see B Chowdhury as a pole to attract around 20 dissident BNP MPs. This would weaken the BNP, without threatening the Awami League. Instead, Bikalpadhara is gunning for the 'North Bengal' option.

There have been two other major third parties, before Bikalpadhara. One is HM Ershad's Jatiyo Party whose base is centred on his hometown of Rangpur and North Bengal. They have been quietly regrouping all their factions and look like they can win sufficient seats to be a deciding 'player'. A union of B Chowdhury, HM Ershad and other lesser leaders might look attractive on paper. It looks more likely that this will be put on the back burner. The newest of the Third parties will have to prove it has real strength. Time may be against them. Building a robust nationwide network is difficult. To date, they may have beaten the Jatiyo Party in media column inches. However, media coverage on its own does not lead to victory in elections. In Pakistan, cricket hero, Imran Khan, had name recognition and also drew crowds and TV cameras but got nowhere.

The Jatiyo Party is likely to be coy and talk with everyone and decide to play with no one. For now. Not until much closer to the election. Time is on their side as they aim to play the role of kingmaker.

The other third party, Gano Forum, is led by internationally known lawyer, Dr. Kamal Hossain. He was once Foreign Minister and Presidential candidate for the Awami League in the seventies. He left them and formed Gano Forum in the early 90s. It captured the people's imagination but not their votes. Dr. Kamal Hossain also leads the 'Oikyo Mancha' and has also campaigned with Dr. B Chowdhury. This is where it becomes very unclear. Will Dr. Kamal Hossain make his mind up about Bikalpadhara? Or will he plump for the left forces? And by extension, will the Awami League offer him the Presidency and real influence? Will he want it?

While not bringing many votes, his reputation with the middle classes, media and western powers would be invaluable for the Awami League. He then too is a potential kingmaker. Which way the physician or the Lawyer swings could tip the balance.

Other possibilities include Jatiyo Party's HM Ershad joining up with the Awami League (if they ditch the Left). Voters disenchanted with the BNP but sceptical about the Awami League may switch over if the Jatiyo Party were involved. This does not look plausible right now but one never knows. Most parties have been crafted together through personality and promise of booty. Philosophy and ideology was left behind in all the excitement.

Putting this in perspective, the political parties have a limited influence because they have at best a tenuous hold on national sovereignty. Governments nominally decide national security and our foreign policy posture. Economic policy is a hand-me-down too. Parliament seems irrelevant right now. Nevertheless, which party or coalition wins is important for two reasons:

(1) They possess "negative power" i.e., they can mess things up further and bring the country to chaos and disorder. Some would say we are there already.

(2) And because it does not have to be this way. Despite the restrictions of globalisation, they have sufficient room to initiate a Common Minimum Programme and negotiate a better deal with the 'donors'. Instead they prefer to lie down like a doormat.

This winter, politics seems to have cooled down, though it traditionally goes the other way. By contrast, last summer seemed to indicate major upheaval. Is this therefore the calm before another storm? Or will politicians be allowed to continue wheel- ing and dealing for the next couple of years? Have they been allowed another chance? Place your bets.

Farid Bakht is a founder member of Futurebangla.