From near self-sufficiency to deficiency

Availability of food is the first component of food security, the other two being access to food and utilisation of food. Food availability in Bangladesh has four components and domestic food production is the most important of these components. The other three components are commercial imports, food aid and government security stocks. After nearly thirty years of independence, Bangladesh attained near self-sufficiency in foodgrain (rice and wheat) in 1999-2000 when gross production of rice and wheat reached 249.07 lakh metric tons (rice 230.67 lakh metric tons and wheat 18.40 lakh metric tons) and net quantity available for human consumption stood at 224.16 lakh metric tons (after deducting 10% for seed, feed and wastage).

Mentionable that rice provides about 93 percent of the country's cereal intake. Based on Household Income & Expenditure Survey (HIES)-2000 calculation of 476 grams (gm) per capita per day intake of rice and wheat the domestic foodgrain production in 1999-2000 could for the first time marginally meet the country's foodgrain requirement of 224.12 lakh metric tons for a population of 129 millions. In 2000-2001, gross foodgrain production reached 267. 58 lakh metric tons (rice 250. 85 lakh metric tons and wheat 16. 73 lakh metric tons) and net foodgrain available for human consumption stood at 240. 83 lakh metric tons, the highest production since independence in 1971. This could meet the HIES-2000 requirement of 227. 59 lakh metric tons for a population of 131 millions.

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The increasing trend in foodgrain production could not be sustained. Food Ministry's Database on Food Situation Bangladesh-2003 reveals that gross foodgrain production in 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 stood respectively at 259.05 lakh metric tons (rice 242.99 lakh metric tons and wheat 16.06 lakh metric tons) and 266.94 lakh metric tons (rice 251.88 lakh metric tons and wheat 15.06 lakh metric tons). The net quantity of foodgrain available for human consumption stood at 233.15 lakh metric tons and 240.

25 lakh metric tons, respectively. This was the situation against about two percent net growth of population which stood at 133 millions in 2001-2002 and 135 millions in 2002-2003. Subsequent data reveal that in 2003-2004 gross foodgrain production was 274.43 lakh metric tons. This means an increase of only 6.85 lakh metric tons compared with the production level of 2000-2001. This is a negative growth if we take into account the population increase of 6 million-plus between 2001 and 2004.

This year's (2004-2005) Aman production target was fixed at 127 lakh metric tons. It is reported that Aman output will fall short of its target by 15 percent due to massive floods of August-September last. It means that there will be a short fall of 19 lakh metric tons against the target.

The internal procurement of Aman ends on 31January. Information available from the food and disaster management ministry reveals that till January 25 only 2 (two) metric tons of rice could be procured against the target of 2 lakh metric tons. This has happened because of the big gap between the market price and the government offered price.

Food aid in the recent years has sharply decreased. While the average yearly food aid amounted to 16 lakh metric tons, 12.2 lakh metric tons and 9.3 lakh metric tons in the seventies, eighties and nineties respectively, the food aid in 2000-2001, 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 stood at 4.91 lakh metric tons, 5 lakh metric tons, 2.54 lakh metric tons and 2. 89 lakh metric tons respectively.

The decline in domestic foodgrain production in comparison with the annual population growth of nearly 2 percent and the significant decrease in food aid have led to the sharp increase in foodgrain import. Available data reveal that in 2000-2001, 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 foodgrain import in the private sector stood at 10.63 lakh metric tons, 12.49 lakh metric tons, 29.67 lakh metric tons and 25.09 lakh metric tons respectively. The import of 2003-2004 includes 29 thousand metric tons in the public sector. It is learnt that during July-December period of 2004-2005, private importers opened letters of credit for importing 10 lakh metric tons of rice and 14 lakh metric tons of wheat. Further, the government has decided to quickly import 1.5 lakh metric tons of rice from abroad and procure 1 lakh metric tons of rice from domestic market through open tender to replenish its food security stocks. More foodgrains may have to be imported this year unless there is a record production of wheat and boro.

The decline in domestic foodgrain production and the sharp decrease in food aid have resulted in the rise of foodgrain price. December-January is the Aman harvesting season in the country. The price of rice in the market generally shows a declining trend during the harvesting period and the government thus goes for internal procurement of rice to keep the price stable. This is done to provide price incentive to the growers. But the situation is just reverse this year. During this harvesting season, the price of rice in the open market has surpassed all previous records. While the per quintal price of rice in the fourth week of January in 2001-2002, 2002-2003, 2003-2004 was taka 1268, 1347 and 1309 respectively, the price of rice during the same period this year was taka 1611 per quintal. The rise in the price of rice has led to the increase in the price of flour also.

To conclude, unless effective steps are taken to increase at geometrical progression the domestic production of foodgrain, non-foodgrain crops such as pulses, oil-seeds, fruits, vegetables etc. and non-crop food products i.e. milk, meat, fish and eggs, Bangladesh from its position of near self-sufficiency in food is most likely to become again a food deficit and import dependent country.

M. Abdul Latif Mondal is a former Secretary, Ministry of Food.