Letting the government off the hook

The ruling alliance has been quick to suggest that the 14-party proposals are not serious and have not been put forward in good faith. The AL is afraid to take its case to the voters, their argument goes, and so it is setting impossible and unreachable conditions in order not to have to face the ruling alliance at the polls.

Senior leaders of the ruling alliance have been out in force, voicing the official party line at every opportunity with admirable discipline. The AL is once again trying to change the rules of the game. The constitution should not be tampered with to suit the inclination of one political party. There is nothing wrong with the current system under which the last two free and fair elections have been held.

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The AL counter argues that political systems are dynamic and need to change and evolve over time in response to changing political realities, and that with the raising of the age at which supreme court justices must retire that the BNP-led ruling alliance is guilty of manipulating the present system.

More important still, the AL argues, is the need to keep the offices of head of the caretaker government and chief justice unconnected, as the current law under which the last retired chief justice becomes the chief advisor has resulted in the politicisation of the judiciary.

Thus, even if Justice Hassan elects not to accept the position of chief advisor and the post passes on to Justice Mahmudul Amin Chowdhury, in accordance with the law and to whom the AL has no objection, this would not solve the underlying problem caused by the current law.

Both sides have reasonable arguments on the issue that are being ventilated right now, one of which will eventually, I suppose, command the agreement of the majority of the public.

It seems to me, though, that the AL-led 14-party opposition are making a mistake by letting the CTG and election reform agenda hijack the political discourse. By focusing so much on their demands for reform and not so much on the issues it seems to me that they are letting the ruling alliance off the hook.

After all, reasonable people can differ about the need for CTG reform, and for most people it is something of an abstract issue, not an immediate concern.

More focus on the 4-party alliance's record in office and a clearly stated agenda of how an AL-led government would do things differently is what the public would really like to see from the opposition.

The opposition needs to make the case that they deserve to be elected in the first place. Only once they have convinced the public of this will the public get agitated over the need for good elections. If the public feels either that the 4-party alliance has done a good enough job to stay in power, or that the AL would do little better, then they are hardly likely to get behind the AL's sweeping agenda for CTG and election reform.

This is the argument I put recently to senior party leaders.

The response was that they feel that the AL has been making this argument, but they conceded that the focus of late has been on the reform agenda.

This is likely to change in the coming months, I was told. We can expect to see a shift in emphasis when the AL-led opposition returns to serious campaigning at the end of the month after taking a break for the observation of August 15 and August 21.

The game plan is to put together a common minimum programme with the other parties in the opposition and to take this to the people in the month of September.

My feeling is that this would be far more effective approach than to continue to beat the drum more or less exclusively on the issue of reform. If the CMP catches on with the people then public demand for CTG and election reform will follow.

The AL maintains that the idea that they do not want elections is illogical. The 4-party alliance is the incumbent government, after all. The AL and its allies can only come to power pursuant to an election. For them, there is thus no alternative to elections.

The ruling alliance, for its part, is looking more and more likely to call for early elections. The logic behind such a move is compelling.

In terms of the government's record, things are only going to get worse, and the worse things get, the louder and more persuasive will be the calls for CTG and election reform. So it would be in the government's interest to call for a showdown earlier rather than later. The talk in government circles is of calling early elections and leaving the mess to the caretaker government to sort out.

If the 14-party opposition boycotts, the elections can still be run with the JP as opposition. One radical idea that is being bruited is to dissolve the 4-party alliance and free the Jamaat and the IOJ to run against the BNP.

This is a no-lose proposition for all concerned. The BNP would get to jettison its troublesome coalition partners (which would win plaudits from those who are made uneasy by the alliance) and at the same time get to run its own candidates in all 300 seats. Such a move would make the elections seem even more representative.

The coalition partners would benefit immensely from being able to field candidates in all constituencies and could expect their total number of seats in parliament to rise dramatically. Every seat thus gained would exponentially advance their influence in the locality. They might not even have to sacrifice cabinet seats -- there is no reason why the BNP could not bring them back in as part of a coalition or "national unity" government after the election.

The crucial factor is whether popular participation would be so scant as to render the election illegitimate. This is tricky ground for the AL. It will be harder for them to recreate the conditions of February 1996 with the JP and the Jamaat on the other side of the fence this time.

But the AL's best hope remains in an indirect path to reform. The need of the hour for them is to leave the reform argument alone for a little bit and take their message of BNP misrule to every corner of the country.

This should not be a tough argument to make. BNP MP Shahidul Alam Talukdar's severe beating of Jugantor correspondent Monjur Morshed is only the latest in a long line of atrocities committed by ruling alliance men that cannot have endeared the party to the general public.

Equally compelling as an argument against the incumbent government is the tough times that the people have had to endure these past four years. The high price of essentials, the anemic job market, shortages of water and electricity, unprecedented corruption, and a law and order situation that despite the excesses of Rab is still very much out of control -- these are things that have hit the people where it hurts.

The ruling alliance's record in office is a litany of short-sighted misrule and abuse of power that has both been detrimental to the interests of the general public and tarnished the image of the country.

If they take this message to the people, it will resonate far better than a message about CTG reform and the need to preserve the integrity of the judiciary. This is what the people want to hear and the message the 14-party opposition must communicate.

The 14-party opposition need to first succeed in persuading the people that they would represent a real change if they want the public to get behind their reform agenda.

Zafar Sobhan is Assistant Editor of The Daily Star.