New deal from New Delhi

Clarion calls "I do not claim to have any expert knowledge of the subjects of this area...But public office, I regard, is private education at public expenses. Therefore, my long association with public life, has given me some insights, which I thought, I would use this opportunity to share with you" -- said the PM at the very outset. He then informed the participants that, every morning he receives a large number of telephone calls and, specifically just before arriving at the occasion, he got three such phone calls. The PM is of the view that all three phone calls go to sum up the top priorities faced by India and also South Asian countries as a whole in their quest for a life of dignity and self-respect for people.

One child asked Manmohan that morning, "What are you doing to save our tigers?" This speaks of the need for a development strategy which is economically efficient and environmentally endurable. The second call came from a young man who said, "What about employment?" Generation of employment opportunities for the youth tend to remain as a challenge. In Bangladesh and India as elsewhere, the lack of opportunities for work has contributed to many socio-economic and political ills. The third telephone call to the PM related to bio-safety. According to him, "we have immense possibility of bio-technology -- both in areas of health and areas of agricultural development, a new beginning can be made, but there are also risks, there are question marks. There are worries about the side-effects of the new bio-technologies".

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There is, perhaps, little doubt that the three phone calls that the Hon'ble PM of India received that morning point to the emerging priorities of the nations in this part of the world who are groaning under grievous poverty but, nevertheless, grappling with growth. The PM expressed his hope that in the months and years to come, IFPRI's efforts would be brought to throw light on these formidable challenges that all countries in South Asia face in their search for a democratic and more just social and economic order.

New deal
Dr Manmohan Singh then emphasied his government's commitment to the launching of a "Second Green Revolution". "The New Deal," aimed at ensuring food and nutritional security of the people, would augment farm incomes and employment. He referred to the new challenge that governments have to deal with in formulating policy with regard to the food economy, which is the emergence of the private sector, both in research and infrastructure.

What does this "New Deal" entail? It is intended to reverse the decline in investment in agriculture. It means stepping up investment in agriculture including research. That happens to be one of the key areas of interventions. An important dimension of this "New Deal" is aimed at ensuring food and nutritional security of the people, while at the same time, augmenting farm income and employment will be the launching of a "Second Green Revolution". "Our government will be launching a National Horticulture Mission that is aimed, in part, at stimulating this "second Green Revolution", in a range of "new crops and commodities".

The puzzles
Foodgrains demand in India has been dwindling in recent years, despite stability in food prices and persistence of low nutritional standards among the poor. However, statistical evidences does not point to deterioration in the health indicators, rather, there is an improvement in human development indicators pertaining to health status of people.

The second puzzle purports that consumption of more expensive cereals has gone up even among poorer households, while the demand for so-called "inferior cereals" has stagnated. What are the health and nutritional implications of this food preference in the long run? "We need a better monitoring of food availability and food access situation in the country and in South Asia as a whole".

Outcomes and outlays
To the PM of India at the moment, the real challenge lies in implementation and in delivery of services. "Our government would like to emphasize 'outcomes' and not merely focus on 'outlays'. The effectiveness of spending must improve both in terms of administrative efficiency and the impact on target groups. We cannot allow a situation to persist in this country where food surpluses and accumulating food stocks co-exist with starvation, deaths and persistent malnutrition. The real challenge is one of delivery and of reforming administrative system".. There is much that local governments can do to address this challenge. They must be more actively engaged in monitoring both availability and access to food at the local level and play an active role in improving the food security of the people".

Liberalisation and realisation
The newly emerging global dimension of the local and national level food and livelihood systems need a close care. How can national governments deal with the challenges of food and nutritional security in a globalised market? What challenges are posed by globalised markets to the food security of the poor people? How to take globalisation as a win-win game? Both opportunities and risks loom large on the horizon. More importantly, in what way globalisation and the liberalisation of trade impinge upon our traditional knowledge? "It is easy to talk about rationality of open markets, but one must be alive to the rationality of social practices. Agriculture is just not a business in our country, for millions of Indians it still remains a way of life. How can we preserve the cherished way of life of so many, and yet be a part of the emerging process of globalization?"

Necessity vs luxury
These are the chiming challenges that the politicians of this region regularly face. Researches are a necessity and must always be alive to them. The economists' assumption of 'ceteris paribus' is not a luxury available to politicians. In the real world, other things rarely remain the same as changes are pushed for. The erstwhile publicly funded researches and investments in rural infrastructure should pave ways for private sector participation. The public-private participation in agricultural researches and investments are areas to be explored in years to come.

Boarded on the plane, I reckoned that the "New Deal" from New Delhi should provide sufficient food for thoughts for all governments of the regions. Agricultural sector must get due attention to keep us on an even keel. That implies, inter alia, small and marginal firms should survive with new technology, credit and infrastructure.

Abdul Bayes is a Professor of Economics at Jahangirnagar University