Why did Israel dismantle the Gaza settlements?

Sharon has always taken a risky strategy, whether in Lebanon in 1982 or in the Gaza withdrawal today. His Likud party is on the verge of collapse because of disunity on the question of withdrawal of Israeli settlers, and the hawkish US-educated Netanyahu, his political rival and former Prime Minister, resigned from the cabinet.

According to an Israeli historian, Uzi Benziman, never in Israel's history has there been a man such as Sharon (his parents, Samuel and Vera, migrated to Israel from Russia in 1922). He is unique in his personality and his perception of the world, his approach to peace and war is often difficult to understand. His ability to survive politically has been spectacular. He is commonly known in Israel an "Israeli Caesar."

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The question is why
It is not because of the recognition that Israel has illegally occupied the Palestinian lands after the 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Political observers believe that there are primarily two reasons for taking such a decision.

First is he is well aware of the very high cost, in human, political, and military terms, in protecting the small number of Israeli settlers in the Gaza. There is no military solution to a political problem concerning the rights of Palestinians.

Second is to maintain the demographic majority of Jewish population within Israel. There are two options for Israel:
(a) a bi-national state in a large territory, living with Arabs, or
(b) a Jewish state with a small territory.

Jewish character of Israel
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon rejected the idea of a bi-national state. Israel wishes to remain a Jewish state. This means that the overwhelming majority of population must be Jewish.

That is why Sharon has made two key decisions: (i) the construction of a wall between Israel and West Bank, grabbing many areas of the West Bank where Jewish population have settled there since 1967, and (ii) the pull out of Jewish settlements from the Gaza Strip. Both these decisions are designed to address the demographic imbalance.

Israel's birth rate is dwindling. That is why Israel wants more Jewish immigration from US, France, and the former Soviet Union.

Implications
The Gaza withdrawal is accelerating the debate over Israel's future identity with narrower borders. In this debate, demography will become the main guideline. Topography or more land for Israel has taken a back seat.

Since Arab population is increasing faster than Jewish population within Israel, attention has been turned to Arab areas within Israel where the Palestinian population is increasing by leaps and bounds.

Swap of land
One of the areas is reported to be the Wadi Area within Israel. Israel grabbed it from Jordan in 1949, threatening Jordan that unless it ceded the area, it would be taken by force. Jordan gave in when the Arabs lost the war in 1949.

Now a lot of Israelis want to swap the Wadi Area including Umm el-Fahm in return for the large Jewish settlement "blocks" east of the "Green Line" on the West Bank. Umm el-Fahm is the second-largest Palestinian town inside Israeli's pre-1967 borders.

To Israel, neighbouring Arab countries do not pose any threat whatsoever because Israel has become the strongest military power with the assistance and support of the US (since the removal of Saddam Hussein, only Iran is considered to pose a threat, and that is why both US and Israel do not want a nuclear programme in Iran, while Israel has nuclear warheads). Their new danger of losing Jewish identity emanates from increasing Arab population within Israel.

Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the extreme right political party, has already started slogans about disengagement (withdrawal) from Wadi Area and Umm-el-Fahm. Lieberman advocates a "populated land swap." This means Israel will give Umm-el-Fahm and the adjacent Arab-populated area west of the "Green line" to a future Palestinian state, in return for depopulated lands in the West Bank. This is called "soft transfer."

The residents of Ummel-Fahm reject firmly the idea and they called it "racist and unacceptable." The Arabs want to remain Israeli citizens. The left-wing Israeli political parties also oppose the idea on the ground that a state cannot simply divorce its citizens for convenience.

The "population swap" is not a new idea. It was first formulated in 1994 by a researcher who was seeking a quid pro quo for the settlement blocks in the West Bank. Over the years, politicians from mainstream political parties -- Sharon's Likud and Peres' Labour -- have expressed some support. But only Lieberman has made it a campaign platform of his National Union Party.

The underlying reason for the Wadi Area plan is demography. In the land, between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, Israeli Jews will soon become a minority. Ceding the occupied territories to the Palestinians is indispensable to improving the Jewish population balance.

Conclusion
The Gaza Strip is only 5 per cent of Palestinian occupied lands. The Gaza pull-out alone will not bring peace unless Israel dismantles illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank and agrees to the rightful demands of transfer of East Jerusalem to them. Sharon is determined to annex the settlements in the West Bank and retain East Jerusalem. "Might is Right" remains the doctrine of Israel in the 21st century.

Barrister Harun ur Rashid is a former Bangladesh Ambassador to the UN, Geneva.