German polls

The decline in public support for Schroeder's SPD is a boon to Christian Democrat leader Ms Merkel who is set for sweeping victory in September polls as Germany's first woman chancellor. Germany's six leading poll agencies currently give Merkel's CDU/CSE between 42 percent and 45 percent of the national votes. In contrast the Chancellor's SPD is not expected to capture more than 26 percent to 27 percent and his Green Coalition ally, only 8 to 10 percent of the votes. Even with a bright prospect Ms Merkel's key problem is the growing popularity of Lafontaine's Left alliance which, currently having the support of between nine and twelve percent of the voters, may gobble up too many votes to leave Merkel with a majority.

Since Schroeder has ruled out a coalition with Lafontaine, his arch enemy, one scenario being suggested by the analysts is that Germany may be, in this milieu, heading for a grand coalition of Ms Merkel's CDU/CSU and Mr Schroeder's SPD. Such a grand coalition -- with Ms Merkel in driving seat -- is a popular idea which, however, needs more of political leadership and less of political squabbling. But for the moment mud slinging between the politicians seems to be the name of the game. Trailing in the polls Schroeder's SPD members are sharpening attacks on the conservative challenger thus demeaning the prospects of any grand coalition.

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However, the conservatives have uptill now an edge in the electoral race and are the favourite to grab the top political prize. An expected change of guard in Berlin is being closely watched by international community as well as Germany's European neighbours. Because it entails far-reaching consequence on Berlin's foreign policy and support for Turkish membership of the European Union. Ms Merkel's party is eager to strengthen ties with the US and is fiercely opposed to opening EU doors to Ankara despite the bloc's promise to launch entry talks with Turkey on October 3 this year. In a move aimed at reinforcing her international profile Ms Merkel's personal envoy Wolfgang Schduble, the CBU's top foreign policy expert, has already held meetings with Ms Condoleezza Rice and other senior US officials. The CDU's election manifesto said of a 'new start' to US-German relations which according to the manifesto would be cornerstone of a Merkel-led administration. This will be a significant departure from a Germany that opposed US invasion in Iraq.

A Merkel government is also expected to improve Berlin's ties with Britain. British Prime Minister Tony Blair is reported to be hoping for a Merkel victory in the belief that CDU will be more market-oriented in its economic policy and more supportive of revamping Europe's outdated social welfare model. Ties with Paris could be complicated given Ms Merkel's tense relation with French President Chirac and apparent for Sarkozy who is hoping to be France's next president in 2007. Ms Merkel and Sarkozy are both hostile to EU membership for Turkey. There will however be no change in one area: whoever wins the September poll -- and despite Washington's pressure -- Germany will not be sending troops to Iraq. However a change of guard in Berlin will portend another period of US' friendly policy and a return to the country's traditional rightwing politics.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.