Nepal: Any light at the end of the tunnel ?

Nevertheless, this may help open a window for cessation of the hostilities while expectation of any settlement of the "Maoist" problem is still a height of folly. On the other front, there seems a positive development in government-opposition relations as King Gyanendra has offered dialogue with main opposition parties to resolve the political instability that is haunting the impoverished country. Here too, much can not be expected from the King's offer since it contains nothing substantial to resolve the crisis. But this along with release of opposition leaders and activists including octogenarian former premier Girija Prasad Koirala from custody may assuage the feelings of the opposition to some extent and pave the way for a discussion with the government.

Nepal painstakingly introduced democracy in 1990,but the last nail was carried on the fragile political situation with the sacking of the elected prime minister in February this year by the King when a state of emergency was declared and many other restrictions imposed. The stringent moves expectedly drew sharp criticisms internally and internationally as these were seen as "killing of democracy" by the monarch, whose role was supposed to be largely ceremonial. Facing orchestrated clamour for restoration of democracy, King Gyanendra slowly relaxed his absolute control and later withdrew the emergency. But he is demonstrating little sign to revert to democratic system even though pressure continues to mount on him for early elections and withdrawal of all undemocratic measures.

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The landlocked nation admirably introduced parliamentary democracy in 1990 replacing executive monarchy. The developments in the country in the form of sacking the elected prime minister and vesting of all powers in the monarchy cannot be commended since these measures are certainly taking the nation further away from representative character of governance. The current millenium had certainly begun on an ominous note for Nepal, which was otherwise a largely calm and peaceful country drawing huge tourists from all over and was making significant strides to change its economically weak image. The monarch remained the constitutional head with an elected parliament and leader of the majority party or alliance at the helm as the prime minister to run the nation. But over the last five years, conditions have changed and the political situation is getting murkier.

A popular monarch King Birendra had to loosen his grip on power facing a pro-democracy movement when he conceded to the demand of parliamentary democracy in the country. However, political parties -- the Nepali Congress, the Communist party (Marxist-Leninist) and other smaller groupscould not show maturity in a new parliamentary democracy as intra-party rivalries as well as squabbles within the main Nepali Congress kept all at bay about the fate of democracy even though people favour representative system of government.

The murky political situation can be well judged by the fact that Nepal witnessed as many as thirteen premiers in fifteen years history of introduction of democracy in 1990. Nonetheless, nascent democracy was gaining experience. A palace massacre wiped out King Birendra along with the mainstream royal family and this brought King's younger brother Gyanendra on the throne. He slowly consolidated power and turned the ceremonial monarchy once again into executive one. Finally, he dismissed the elected prime minister early this year and political instability has since been continuing.

The armed campaign by ultra leftists to dismantle the monarchy and set up a communist republic is costing the country heavily. Undoubtedly, the biggest headache for the King is the activities of the Maoists, who often engage themselves in fierce battles with the army and police causing big toll of lives on both sides. By this time they control a large area in the countryside. Efforts for a government-Maoists negotiation did not bear much fruit and consequently a stand-off situation exists as far as the fighting is concerned. Recently, the radicals hit headlines by killing a large number of soldiers and taking another big number as hostage. This has compounded the imbroglio since the government spares no effort to contain the exacerbating situation.

The army has gone all out against the ultras with some success, but crushing the radicals remains a tall order. It is in this circumstance the "Maoists" have come out with the decision to cease their actions for three months.

Seven political parties which controlled 190 of the 205 seats in parliament are clamouring for return to democracy and early polls in that direction. But so far the King turned a blind eye to this demand although he says that representative governance will be restored in due course. Recently, two main political partiesthe Nepali Congress and the Communist party (UML) -- expressed their opposition to King's earlier measures in turning the country constitutionally an effective monarchy. Obviously, this has further queered pitch of govt-opposition relationship. The King has come out with an offer to discuss all issues with the political parties. Earlier, the government was annoyed by the decision of the political parties of their readiness for a dialogue with the "Maoists" whom the government sees as enemy of the country.

Evidently, a country like Nepal can ill afford to absorb two serious crisespolitical instability and the long-drawn Maoist insurgency. If the reprieve as announced by the radicals temporarily halting their armed activities is properly used by the government for facilitating better ties with the ultras despite the yawning gap between their respective positions, this may create some scope for cessation of hostilities. In the political front, unambiguous pledge by the King of restoring democratic government preferably through fresh polls may encourage the opposition for a dialogue with the government. Without any such assurances, the political parties are unlikely to go for talks with the monarch. While the ball is largely in the King's court, maintaining restraint and rationale by all parties concerned may help Nepal bail out from the current precarious situation. Otherwise things may move for the worse.

Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury is a senior journalist.