The Americans broaching the Iraq exit plan?

According to a survey most Americans are now of the opinion that the US troops should be withdrawn from Iraq although there are differences on the degree of pull out. While some would like a partial withdrawal a record 33 per cent want to see all US troops withdrawn from Iraq. Taken together those who believe some or all American troops should return home constitute 58 percent of those polled. This rising chorus in favour of a pull out is in sharp contrast to the bravado expressed by President Bush and what he is repeatedly saying: that he is not in a position to give a withdrawal schedule.

There is a visible change of heart also in the Capitol Hill. Not long ago the resolutions to establish at least a timetable for withdrawal could gain the support of only about a quarter of the members of Congress. Now following new stridency in insurgency and after watching gory TV coverage of suicide bomb attacks more number of Congressmen want a debate on the issue. They are increasingly reluctant to share the optimism of president Bush who promised for bringing the boys home after declaring 'victory' which is as elusive as ever.

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Times correspondent in Baghdad quoted unnamed senior official reiterating two big frustrations that were heard since July, 2003: that the insurgency appears to be growing more violent, more resilient and more sophisticated than ever and that prosecuting war in its midst is like sowing dragons' teeth. "We are capturing a lot of insurgents" one senior US Army intelligence officer told the Times, "But they are being replaced quicker than we can interdict their operation. There is always another insurgent ready to step up and take charge."

In such a security milieu a decisive victory envisaged by Bush Administration is simply inconceivable. No wonder John Deuch, a former Central Intelligence Agency Director called for a prompt withdrawal plan in a column published in the Times. A more detailed plan emerged several days later from the Boston-based 'Project on Defence Alternative' (PDA) calling for complete withdrawal except for multinational civilian and military contingent of less than 10,000 troops by September, 2006.

According to a report by Carl Conetta, a defence analyst, "The key to enabling total US troops withdrawal within 400 days is achieving an accord with Sunni leaders and with Iraq's neighbours -- especially Iran and Syria". "The proximal aim would be to lower the level of conflict in Iraq by constricting both active and passive support for the insurgency inside and outside the country."

Like many others Helena Cobban, the veteran Middle East commentator believe that the continued US military presence in Iraq is counter productive to longer term US interests in the region and is effectively fuelling the ongoing insurgency. The prolonged US military presence and activities there may itself be fuelling Islamist insurgency and terrorism the world over. She calls for a withdrawal strategy that is "total, speedy and generous to Iraqi people." In this regard her model is Israeli exit from South Lebanon in 2000. She notes that despite deep fears that the withdrawal would touch off mayhem and revenge (in Lebanon) none came to pass.

The recent opinion polls unmistakably shows the US public favouring a partial or complete withdrawal of the troops from Iraq. The shifting public mood has been accompanied by the rise of a visible anti-war movement and increasingly vocal criticism by some political leaders who have cast Iraq as another Vietnam. The gravity of security situation is indeed so great that the very limits of American power or putting it more graphically, the limitations of American might, are seriously put to question. The Vietnam syndrome still haunts the American people as the nightmare that may revisit them as a result of Iraq bungle. The American people if not its power elite have gradually awakened to that reality resulting in the current alacrity with regard to their troops' exit from an Iraqi cauldron.

Brig ( retd) Hafiz is former DG of BIISS.