Inching towards isolation

But it is also fair to say that this extraordinary denunciation of the current government is a direct consequence of the government's inaction in the face of the terrorist atrocities that have marked its four-year tenure.

The congressmen and women, who include some of the most respected names on both sides of the political aisle, did not mince their words: "The possibility of Bangladesh becoming a failed state and the base of operations for international terrorist organizations should be part of [the summit] discussions."

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The question that needs to be asked at this point is whether the letter is of any real political consequence, or if it is simply a tempest in a teacup, that signifies very little.

It should be mentioned that the signatories to the letter are either Democrats or moderate Republicans, with little or no influence over the Bush administration and its foreign policy, and that, as it happens, President Bush did not take the bait.

He did not raise the issue of political violence in Bangladesh at the summit, and has apparently chosen to ignore the letter, or at least decided that any issues the US would like to raise with Bangladesh can be discussed on a bilateral basis and need not be raised in public. Secretary of State Rice met with the PM while she was in New York to attend the summit.

But it is a point worth noting that this is not the first indication of impatience with the government's failings among influential members of the international community.

Last month, the hitherto diplomatic World Bank Country Director for Bangladesh Christine Wallich gave a much talked about speech at an international workshop on infrastructure financing, in which she chastised the government for the corruption in infrastructure development and public procurement. What was noteworthy about her speech was that for the first time Dr. Wallich went significantly beyond her more muted and delicate criticisms of governance failure of the past.

It is perhaps no coincidence that her speech came hard on the heels of the visit to Bangladesh made by the new head of the World Bank. Paul Wolfowitz is better known for his recently completed tenure as US Deputy Secretary of Defence, during which he achieved notoriety as one of the principal architects of the Iraq war, and there can be little doubt that he will use his new role as president of the Bank to push the policy imperatives supported by his former boss, President Bush.

There is no question that, in the next three years at least, we are likely to see a more coordinated approach from the US government and the World Bank when it comes to Bangladesh, which accord the remarks made by Dr. Wallich and Dr. Wolfowitz an increased significance.

So when the new head of the Bank goes on record to suggest that "what happened last week [August 17] should be a wake-up call for Bangladesh" it is worth taking seriously.

The recent reassignment of US Ambassador Harry K. Thomas after a scant two years in Bangladesh could also indicate changes in the relationship between the government and the Bush administration. Indeed, sources tell me that there had long been a difference of opinion between Ambassador Thomas and officials such as Assistant US Secretary of State for South Asia Christine Rocca on the approach to be taken with respect to the Bangladesh government's inaction in the face of terrorism and political violence.

It is possible that the return of Ambassador Thomas to Washington heralds the beginning of a new get tough policy on the government, and that the Bush administration will henceforth demand a more active role in ensuring that Bangladesh not become (to quote the letter) "a base of operations for international terrorist organizations."

Also interesting to note in the letter is the lawmakers' stated concern for "serious consequences for regional peace and security." This is a more or less unmistakable reference to the long-standing Indian complaint that the Bangladesh government is permitting North-Eastern insurgents to operate from Bangladeshi territory and to New Delhi's fears that the instability in Bangladesh could spill over into the bordering Indian states. They weren't talking about Myanmar.

India has long been on record expressing its alarm at the proliferation of religious extremism in Bangladesh and the government's apparent inability or unwillingness to confront it. The most complete statement of Indian displeasure with the current government was delivered by Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran on the heels of India's decision not to attend the 13th Saarc summit that was scheduled to be held in Dhaka in February.

Since then, the bilateral relationship has improved considerably, with Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh's recent official visit to Bangladesh the high point of the renewed thaw. However, the serial bomb blasts of August 17 have rekindled concern that the situation is not under control and the statements made by senior cabinet members implicating India in the attacks have infuriated New Delhi (the successful recently concluded water talks notwithstanding).

The question now is what does all this mean, if anything. It certainly seems as though the events of August 17 have been seen a serious strike against the administration in the eyes of the international community.

The administration no longer appears to have any friends of note outside the country who will stand up for it, and the general consensus in the international community seems to be that, at best, the government is utterly unable to maintain law and order within the country in the face of terrorist atrocity, and at worst, that the government, or elements within the government, are tied to the extremists, which is why they have been able to act with virtual impunity.

Either way, it seems as though the patience of the international community may finally be running very thin indeed.

The next question is whether it matters. Does it make a difference if the US or the EU or anyone else for that matter is running out of patience with the current government?

Let us not lose sight of the fact that, for all its shortcomings, the alliance government has been democratically elected, and that whether its performance in office merits re-election should be a matter solely for the people of this country to determine, and no one else.

In addition, I am not one for conspiracy theories, and I do not think that we need to worry about any foreign power directly influencing events here. But, by the same token, it would be naïve to assert that public opinion beyond our borders is wholly irrelevant to domestic political considerations.

Politics here, among other things, is a confidence game. People like to go with winners -- that way they can best garner the spoils of the patronage system that dictates so much in this country. If people get the idea that one party or other has lost favour with the big powers, then that will likely have an effect on how they vote or how far out on a limb they are prepared to go in the run-up to a vote.

Not only that, but the flow of foreign investment that this government has been courting so assiduously is likely to be impacted by the poor image of the administration overseas. No one doubts that self-reliance and national pride are a good thing, but at the same time we live in an inter-connected world, and the state of our relations with other countries is a very legitimate focus of concern. No one can take pride or comfort in the fact that Bangladesh's relations with friendly nations have taken a hit.

It might matter a great deal less if the government were more popular within its borders. But the corruption and violence of the past four years together with steady rise in prices and fall in the standard of living have combined to bring the ruling alliance into severe disrepute with the general public.

With its support both inside and outside the country rapidly crumbling, the government needs to give serious thought to how to turn things around. The increasing isolation of the country does none of us any good, and it isn't doing the government any good either.

Zafar Sobhan is Assistant Editor of The Daily Star.